News Article: SEC bowl update for 11-30-09

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From TideFans.com:
November 30th, 2009 04:22 AM

SEC bowl update for 11-30-09
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Nov. 30, 2009

The regular season may be over, but the SEC bowl picture is only a bit clearer than when the week started. Several teams jockeyed for position at the end of the season and now their destinations are up to bowl selection committees. Here’s how we see it panning out.

ALABAMA
Possibilities: BCS Championship Game, Sugar Bowl
Most likely destination: Sugar Bowl vs. Cincinnati
Analysis: It’s not clear yet whether Pitt’s loss to West Virginia will affect the pecking order of this pick (i.e., TCU could vault Cincinnati into the Sugar), but now that both Alabama and Florida won their final regular-season games, it locks the loser of that game into the Sugar. Alabama will likely go into the SEC Championship Game almost a touchdown underdog, so if everything plays to type, Alabama will be in the Sugar and not Florida. It’s on Alabama to make sure something goes against type.
Worst-case scenario: New Year’s Day in New Orleans is seldom a bad trip, but Alabama would rather be in California this year. The worst part about a Sugar Bowl trip is whoever goes there gets a replay of Utah, from an opponent’s mindset perspective. Whether it’s TCU, Cincinnati or Boise State that shows up in New Orleans, the SEC representative’s opponent will be there with something to prove. Alabama would much prefer they prove it against Florida.

FLORIDA
Possibilities: BCS Championship Game, Sugar Bowl
Most likely destination: BCS Championship Game vs. Texas
Analysis: Florida will be the favorite and arguably is finishing the year stronger, at least if games against chief rivals are any indication. Florida’s scenario is the same as Alabama’s: Win, and you go to California to meet (most likely) the Texas Longhorns; lose, and it’s New Orleans against 85 guys with chips on their shoulders.
Worst-case scenario: See above.

LSU
Possibilities: Capital One Bowl, Cotton Bowl
Most likely destination: Capital One Bowl vs. Penn State
Analysis: LSU all but locked up the Capital One Bowl with its win over Arkansas and Ole Miss’ loss to Mississippi State. The only possibility LSU doesn’t end up here – and it would take some backdoor negotiating on the part of the SEC to make it happen – is if the Cotton objects to getting Ole Miss for the second year in a row and the SEC fixes the situation by sending the Rebels to the Cap One. That’s a possibility hovering somewhere around 1 percent. LSU goes to Orlando.
Worst-case scenario: The chance of LSU ending up in the Cotton, where the likely opponent would be Oklahoma State – Les Miles’ former team – is so remote it’s barely worth discussing.

OLE MISS
Possibilities: Capital One Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl, Liberty Bowl
Most likely scenario: Cotton Bowl vs. Oklahoma State
Analysis: Ole Miss did a lot more than embarrass itself against its chief rival; the Rebels almost certainly took themselves out of the conference’s premier non-BCS bowl, the Capital One. But that’s not all. Ole Miss doesn’t travel particularly well, and the Cotton Bowl hosted the Rebels in 2008. That could knock Ole Miss down to the Outback Bowl – but the Outback has its own considerations in play. Most likely, the bleeding stops at the Cotton level, given that there are no other 8-win teams in the conference. But Ole Miss will be sweating this one out all the way through the end of the selection process.
Worst-case scenario: There’s a lot of noise about the Cotton wanting to skip over Ole Miss and get Tennessee. Were that to happen, the Rebels would be in the mix for the next bowl up, the Outback. Since the SEC has a great deal of influence over where teams go, it’s possible the conference could gently direct the Outback to get Ole Miss. But the Outback has better options from the SEC East, where it traditionally gets its SEC representative. Specifically, Georgia and South Carolina are better options, perhaps even Kentucky. If the Cotton doesn’t take Ole Miss, don’t be surprised to see the Rebels fall all the way to the Liberty.

ARKANSAS
Possibilities: Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Independence Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Music City Bowl
Most likely destination: Liberty Bowl vs. Houston
Analysis: Assuming the Cotton takes Ole Miss, the Liberty would dearly love to get Arkansas for a matchup against Conference USA’s Houston. It would probably end up being one of the biggest offensive displays of the bowl season. The Outback could be interested in Arkansas due to its potent offense and QB Ryan Mallett, but with Tennessee and Georgia both getting to seven wins, the Outback will probably take a different tact. The Cotton remains an outside possibility if the SEC can find a good home for Ole Miss.
Worst-case scenario: Depending on what the Liberty and Chick-fil-A decide to do (a lot will depend on whether the Outback takes Georgia or what the Chick-fil-A decides to do regarding Auburn), Arkansas could fall all the way to the Independence.

AUBURN
Possibilities: Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Independence Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Music City Bowl, Papajohns.com Bowl
Most likely destination: Independence Bowl vs. Iowa State
Analysis: The Independence Bowl has a chance to get a matchup that will, if nothing else, have a high giggle factor. In matching up Auburn and Iowa State, the Indy would have Iowa State’s former head coach and current Auburn head coach, Gene Chizik, going against his former team coached by former Auburn defensive coordinator Paul Rhoads. Auburn, however, remains in the mix for the Outback and Chick-fil-A as well as perhaps even the Cotton, although the Outback and Cotton are talking up other teams at the moment. The Chick-fil-A Bowl remains a very big possibility, however, depending on whether Tennessee lands in Dallas and whether Georgia would prefer to stay in-state for bowl season.
Worst-case scenario: Because both Georgia and Tennessee won on the last week of the season, the Papajohns.com Bowl is back in the picture, as the SEC has no six-win teams to pick. The question is whether the Independence and Music City bowls would rather take a chance on Kentucky traveling to their bowls, or whether the SEC would work out a deal to keep Auburn at home, where its presence would help sell tickets.

TENNESSEE
Possibilities: Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Music City Bowl, Liberty Bowl
Most likely destination: Chick-fil-A Bowl vs. Miami
Analysis: This game of 1990s powers would be an intriguing matchup of physical football teams. But Tennessee’s bowl status is the most undecided of all the bowl-eligible SEC teams. The Cotton would love to jump over Ole Miss and bring the Volunteers to town, as Tennessee travels better and has gone two years between bowl trips. If the Cotton takes Ole Miss instead, Tennessee could land anywhere. The Outback is also a keen possibility, but the Outback would probably get a larger traveling contingent from bringing in Georgia. If Atlanta gets the chance to pick Tennessee, the Chick-fil-A will gladly take the Vols.
Worst-case scenario: Theoretically, Tennessee could fall all the way to the Papajohns.com. Realistically, the worst that could happen is for Tennessee to drop to Nashville, if the Chick-fil-A opted for South Carolina.

GEORGIA
Possibilities: Outback Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Music City Bowl, Liberty Bowl
Most likely destination: Outback Bowl vs. Wisconsin
Analysis: Georgia did itself a big favor by beating Georgia Tech, and in the process likely lifted itself out of a Tennessee bowl and into either the Outback or the home-state Chick-fil-A. The real issue here is what happens with the Cotton; if the Cotton is allowed to take Tennessee, the Outback will probably have to take Ole Miss. But if Ole Miss is already off the board when this pick is made, the Outback will have its choice of Tennessee or Georgia. Georgia is the closest geographically, so expect the Outback to take the Bulldogs out of traveling concerns.
Worst-case scenario: If Tennessee is already off the board to the Cotton and the Outback has to take Ole Miss, the Chick-fil-A will have its pick of Auburn, Arkansas, South Carolina and Georgia. There’s something about bowl picks that people rarely consider – i.e., economic impact, especially among the hotel partners. Neither Auburn nor Georgia would offer much for the Chick-fil-A, so the Bulldogs could find themselves in one of the Tennessee bowls.

SOUTH CAROLINA
Possibilities: Chick-fil-A Bowl, Music City Bowl, Papajohns.com Bowl, Independence Bowl
Most likely destination: Music City Bowl vs. North Carolina
Analysis: A South Carolina-North Carolina matchup would be very attractive, and provided the Music City doesn’t decide to pick Kentucky instead – or the Chick-fil-A surprises everyone and brings the Gamecocks to Atlanta – Gamecock fans can pretty much start searching for hotels in the Nashville metro area.
Worst-case scenario: If by some chance the Music City takes Kentucky, South Carolina would end up in an Independence/Papajohns.com fight with Auburn.

KENTUCKY
Possibilities: Chick-fil-A Bowl, Independence Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Music City Bowl, Papajohns.com Bowl
Most likely destination: Papajohns.com Bowl vs. South Florida
Analysis: Kentucky, unfortunately, is the ugly duckling of SEC bowl teams this year. The Wildcats would bring a smaller group of fans than any of the other seven-win teams, and unless the Wildcats can finagle a trip to Nashville, they’ll likely end up playing ball at Legion Field
Worst-case scenario: The worst-case scenario for Kentucky is where the Wildcats will likely end up, Birmingham.


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