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Quick bowl takes from ‘The Upper Deck’
Posted December 31st, 2008 at 03:19 AM by JessN
Didn’t see an article on this site breaking down the bowl matchups like we do each week with games involving SEC teams? That’s because we didn’t write one.
Bowl week is a bowl of mixed nuts every year. dWhen teams have this much time off, and this much time for distraction – see Andre Smith, Alabama – it gets hard to know who’s going to show up and who isn’t.
The only game of the bunch that even feels like a normal game is Florida-Oklahoma, because the stakes are clear and it’s the only game left that, like a regular season game, has any impact on the national title picture. I suppose I could write that Texas could get stomped in Arizona, Alabama could beat Utah 100-0 and Oklahoma and Florida could each turn the ball over ninety times in the BCS Championship Game and the Associated Press could award Alabama the title for a split championship – but I don’t do drugs.
So here’s a quick take of what’s to come starting later today (Wednesday, Dec. 31) and going through the end of the bowl season.
Music City Bowl: Boston College vs. Vanerbilt
Poor Vandy. Bowl-eligible at last, and the Commodores simply get to drive down West End Avenue to the Titans’ stadium to face one of the better teams from the ACC. What a bowl trip, huh?
Boston College looked like junk late in the season, however, and fell from title contention with an ugly loss to Virginia Tech. But Vanderbilt has had the boat in full reverse now for almost three months. The Commodores are 1-6 in their last seven games. Unless Boston College has just tanked an entire month of preparation, this one will be ugly. BC 27, Vanderbilt 7
Chick-fil-A Bowl: LSU vs. Georgia Tech
Had LSU played this game a week after losing to Arkansas, I’d say the Yellow Jackets probably would have hung 50 on the Tigers. Now that we’re a month down the road, the outcome isn’t as certain.
That’s because LSU has about seven times the athletes of Georgia Tech, and perhaps has cleared its head of the nightmares of the last month of the regular season. It says a lot when a mid-level ACC team is favored over a mid-level SEC team.
So if you’re looking for some insight into this one, check out Georgia Tech’s game against North Carolina. The Tarheels had superior athletes on defense, and that made the difference in the game. Georgia Tech never challenged. Similar things were true in losses to Virginia and Virginia Tech.
If LSU plays without discipline, the Tigers will lose. Perhaps new-for-2009 defensive coordinator John Chavis will have some pointers. Otherwise, this pundits’ glamour pick is starting to lose a little varnish. LSU 24, Georgia Tech 17
Outback Bowl: South Carolina vs. Iowa
Iowa is one of the scrappier teams in the Big Ten this year, while South Carolina has no answer or direction at quarterback and a porous run defense. That’s bad news against Shonn Greene and the Hawkeyes’ potent rushing attack.
Steve Spurrier doesn’t always get things right in bowl games, even though he should be good enough to outfox Kirk Ferentz even on his worst day. The biggest problem for South Carolina right now is that Iowa is playing significantly better football than it is. Iowa 23, South Carolina 17
Capital One Bowl: Georgia vs. Michigan State
Michigan State is a lightweight version of Alabama. A very lightweight, slower version.
The Spartans are coached by Mike Dantonio, who goes to Halloween parties disguised as Nick Saban and then repeats the schtick on gameday. He’s a hardnosed defensive mind and his teams play physical football. Unfortunately for Dantonio, his teams don’t quite have the talent of an Alabama just yet.
The one truism for Georgia in 2008, however, has been that physical, bluecollar teams give the Bulldogs fits. Even though Georgia has more athletes and should overwhelm Michigan State, look for the Spartans to be tough in this game and perhaps pull an upset. Michigan State 20, Georgia 17
Cotton Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech
This one boils down to how much you think physical SEC running games can have an effect against teams with a lot more flash.
Ole Miss certainly doesn’t have the defense to stop Texas Tech’s passing game. This isn’t Alabama in 2005 with four future NFL starters starting in the secondary. This is Ole Miss, where Jamarca Sanford is the best option in the defensive backfield and where no Rebel defensive back could crack another SEC West starting secondary.
If Ole Miss is to win, it has to keep the ball forever. Texas Tech’s mindset is also a big factor here; will the Red Raiders want to make a statement, or will they sulk at having to play in a once-major bowl game after being locked out of the party by Oklahoma, Texas and the concept of prestige?
Look for this one to be close but for Tech to simply have too many weapons and too many opportunities. Texas Tech 35, Ole Miss 31
Liberty Bowl: Kentucky vs. East Carolina
How did this thing get scheduled for Jan. 2? There should be a rule that only the BCS bowls can be played after Jan. 1, but that’s a topic for another day.
The topic for this discussion is whether Kentucky can get up off the mat to play a Conference USA team that goes about its business like a SEC team. The Wildcats are really banged up at the moment, but the saving grace for Kentucky is that its defense is really good. East Carolina is a tough, physical team that plays fearlessly, and seems to play up to its competition whenever the Pirates feel they are the underdogs.
If Kentucky can get pressure on Patrick Pinkney, the Wildcats can pull this one out, but East Carolina will be tougher than most believe. East Carolina 21, Kentucky 20
Sugar Bowl: Utah vs. Alabama
This one’s been broken down already, with Alabama a 28-17 winner. And then Andre Smith got suspended.
It’s going to have an effect on the game, but how big of an effect depends on whether the new starting lineman – whether it’s David Ross at guard or John Michael Boswell at tackle – can handle the man across from him. Alabama will still have a big size advantage over the Utah defensive line but it’s not nearly as definitive as before.
Look for this one to get closer, either by Alabama scoring fewer points or by not holding the ball as long, thereby giving Utah’s offense more opportunities to reach the end zone. Alabama 23, Utah 20 (revised)
BCS Championship Game: Florida vs. Oklahoma
Florida’s secondary will finally get a test from a quarterback who knows how to exploit pass defenses. But the real question is whether Oklahoma’s front seven is physical enough to contain Tim Tebow.
Florida is a very well-put-together team all around, and has no apparent weakness. Oklahoma, however, has struggled at times on defense and the offensive scheme could fairly be called somewhat finesse.
Most Alabama fans will be pulling for Oklahoma in this game, but Florida has to be considered the prohibitive favorite. Florida 27, Oklahoma 24
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If these games play out according to script, the SEC will be only 3-5 in bowl games. And it could easily be worse if Oklahoma and Georgia Tech win their respective games.
To tell the truth, this was a down year for the SEC as a whole. The SEC finished the year with two great teams (Florida and Alabama), one very good but erratic team (Georgia), and a lot of pretenders. When Ole Miss and Vanderbilt finish second and third in their respective divisions, you know it’s a down year.
Simply put, there are too many questions about too many teams to expect the SEC to run the table in bowl games, or even get close to it.
Bowl week is a bowl of mixed nuts every year. dWhen teams have this much time off, and this much time for distraction – see Andre Smith, Alabama – it gets hard to know who’s going to show up and who isn’t.
The only game of the bunch that even feels like a normal game is Florida-Oklahoma, because the stakes are clear and it’s the only game left that, like a regular season game, has any impact on the national title picture. I suppose I could write that Texas could get stomped in Arizona, Alabama could beat Utah 100-0 and Oklahoma and Florida could each turn the ball over ninety times in the BCS Championship Game and the Associated Press could award Alabama the title for a split championship – but I don’t do drugs.
So here’s a quick take of what’s to come starting later today (Wednesday, Dec. 31) and going through the end of the bowl season.
Music City Bowl: Boston College vs. Vanerbilt
Poor Vandy. Bowl-eligible at last, and the Commodores simply get to drive down West End Avenue to the Titans’ stadium to face one of the better teams from the ACC. What a bowl trip, huh?
Boston College looked like junk late in the season, however, and fell from title contention with an ugly loss to Virginia Tech. But Vanderbilt has had the boat in full reverse now for almost three months. The Commodores are 1-6 in their last seven games. Unless Boston College has just tanked an entire month of preparation, this one will be ugly. BC 27, Vanderbilt 7
Chick-fil-A Bowl: LSU vs. Georgia Tech
Had LSU played this game a week after losing to Arkansas, I’d say the Yellow Jackets probably would have hung 50 on the Tigers. Now that we’re a month down the road, the outcome isn’t as certain.
That’s because LSU has about seven times the athletes of Georgia Tech, and perhaps has cleared its head of the nightmares of the last month of the regular season. It says a lot when a mid-level ACC team is favored over a mid-level SEC team.
So if you’re looking for some insight into this one, check out Georgia Tech’s game against North Carolina. The Tarheels had superior athletes on defense, and that made the difference in the game. Georgia Tech never challenged. Similar things were true in losses to Virginia and Virginia Tech.
If LSU plays without discipline, the Tigers will lose. Perhaps new-for-2009 defensive coordinator John Chavis will have some pointers. Otherwise, this pundits’ glamour pick is starting to lose a little varnish. LSU 24, Georgia Tech 17
Outback Bowl: South Carolina vs. Iowa
Iowa is one of the scrappier teams in the Big Ten this year, while South Carolina has no answer or direction at quarterback and a porous run defense. That’s bad news against Shonn Greene and the Hawkeyes’ potent rushing attack.
Steve Spurrier doesn’t always get things right in bowl games, even though he should be good enough to outfox Kirk Ferentz even on his worst day. The biggest problem for South Carolina right now is that Iowa is playing significantly better football than it is. Iowa 23, South Carolina 17
Capital One Bowl: Georgia vs. Michigan State
Michigan State is a lightweight version of Alabama. A very lightweight, slower version.
The Spartans are coached by Mike Dantonio, who goes to Halloween parties disguised as Nick Saban and then repeats the schtick on gameday. He’s a hardnosed defensive mind and his teams play physical football. Unfortunately for Dantonio, his teams don’t quite have the talent of an Alabama just yet.
The one truism for Georgia in 2008, however, has been that physical, bluecollar teams give the Bulldogs fits. Even though Georgia has more athletes and should overwhelm Michigan State, look for the Spartans to be tough in this game and perhaps pull an upset. Michigan State 20, Georgia 17
Cotton Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech
This one boils down to how much you think physical SEC running games can have an effect against teams with a lot more flash.
Ole Miss certainly doesn’t have the defense to stop Texas Tech’s passing game. This isn’t Alabama in 2005 with four future NFL starters starting in the secondary. This is Ole Miss, where Jamarca Sanford is the best option in the defensive backfield and where no Rebel defensive back could crack another SEC West starting secondary.
If Ole Miss is to win, it has to keep the ball forever. Texas Tech’s mindset is also a big factor here; will the Red Raiders want to make a statement, or will they sulk at having to play in a once-major bowl game after being locked out of the party by Oklahoma, Texas and the concept of prestige?
Look for this one to be close but for Tech to simply have too many weapons and too many opportunities. Texas Tech 35, Ole Miss 31
Liberty Bowl: Kentucky vs. East Carolina
How did this thing get scheduled for Jan. 2? There should be a rule that only the BCS bowls can be played after Jan. 1, but that’s a topic for another day.
The topic for this discussion is whether Kentucky can get up off the mat to play a Conference USA team that goes about its business like a SEC team. The Wildcats are really banged up at the moment, but the saving grace for Kentucky is that its defense is really good. East Carolina is a tough, physical team that plays fearlessly, and seems to play up to its competition whenever the Pirates feel they are the underdogs.
If Kentucky can get pressure on Patrick Pinkney, the Wildcats can pull this one out, but East Carolina will be tougher than most believe. East Carolina 21, Kentucky 20
Sugar Bowl: Utah vs. Alabama
This one’s been broken down already, with Alabama a 28-17 winner. And then Andre Smith got suspended.
It’s going to have an effect on the game, but how big of an effect depends on whether the new starting lineman – whether it’s David Ross at guard or John Michael Boswell at tackle – can handle the man across from him. Alabama will still have a big size advantage over the Utah defensive line but it’s not nearly as definitive as before.
Look for this one to get closer, either by Alabama scoring fewer points or by not holding the ball as long, thereby giving Utah’s offense more opportunities to reach the end zone. Alabama 23, Utah 20 (revised)
BCS Championship Game: Florida vs. Oklahoma
Florida’s secondary will finally get a test from a quarterback who knows how to exploit pass defenses. But the real question is whether Oklahoma’s front seven is physical enough to contain Tim Tebow.
Florida is a very well-put-together team all around, and has no apparent weakness. Oklahoma, however, has struggled at times on defense and the offensive scheme could fairly be called somewhat finesse.
Most Alabama fans will be pulling for Oklahoma in this game, but Florida has to be considered the prohibitive favorite. Florida 27, Oklahoma 24
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If these games play out according to script, the SEC will be only 3-5 in bowl games. And it could easily be worse if Oklahoma and Georgia Tech win their respective games.
To tell the truth, this was a down year for the SEC as a whole. The SEC finished the year with two great teams (Florida and Alabama), one very good but erratic team (Georgia), and a lot of pretenders. When Ole Miss and Vanderbilt finish second and third in their respective divisions, you know it’s a down year.
Simply put, there are too many questions about too many teams to expect the SEC to run the table in bowl games, or even get close to it.
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