http://www.tidefans.com/forums/ This forum has a list of the articles on TideFans.com - Starting with the 2005 Season. An RSS is available for this feed (and all other forums)! en Sat, 21 Nov 2009 02:21:21 GMT vBulletin 60 http://www.tidefans.com/forums/images/misc/rss.jpg http://www.tidefans.com/forums/ http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/96687-utc-preview-alabama-looking-meld-off-week-game-week.html Wed, 18 Nov 2009 07:28:58 GMT UTC preview: *Alabama looking to meld off-week, game week* By Jess... UTC preview: Alabama looking to meld off-week, game week
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Nov. 18, 2009

Let’s be honest – Alabama wouldn’t have scheduled this game if there were any chance the Crimson Tide brass thought Tennessee-Chattanooga had any chance of winning it.

Unfortunately, a game is a game, and that means everything a game can be – including an upset, or an injury fest – is on the table this Saturday when the Mocs come to visit Tuscaloosa.

Alabama is hoping this game will be nothing more than a glorified scrimmage. But as Michigan found out a couple of seasons ago, just because one team is significantly better than the other, it doesn’t guarantee a win.

OFFENSE

UT-Chattanooga throws the ball around a lot, a philosophy that makes use of the only true weapon the Mocs have, quarterback B.J. Coleman. UTC will run almost exclusively from a one-back set. The Mocs are one of Division-IAA’s best passing teams, but they don’t run the football and they also don’t score a particularly large number of points. Alabama counters with a balanced offense that seeks to run the football effectively, and for most of the season, that offensive philosophy has proven to be wildly successful.

QUARTERBACKS
Tennessee transfer B.J. Coleman has put together a solid 2009 season. On the year, he’s 220-of-376 (58.5%) for 2,312 yards, 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Coleman was, by many accounts, the best quarterback on the Tennessee campus this spring before a dispute with Volunteer head coach Lane Kiffin led to his transfer. Alabama counters with Greg McElroy, who thankfully turned his season around against Tennessee and has had two more good games since. On the year, McElroy is 153-of-254 (60.2%) for 1,913 yards, 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. McElroy also is a better scrambler than Coleman. Alabama has a depth edge at the position, with Star Jackson getting the best of Jare Gault, but the comparison of starters is actually quite close. Coleman is better than either quarterback Alabama faced last week and is better than Auburn’s Chris Todd. This category, in fact, is practically a push, but McElroy has shown the ability to make bigger plays downfield. Advantage: Alabama

RUNNING BACKS
Chris Awuah, the Mocs’ starting tailback, averages just 3.1 yards per carry, and his struggles point to a systemic issue of not being able to run the football. UTC has no full-time fullback, although Will Brooks does play quite a bit. Bryan Fitzgerald is a big back (5’10”, 220 pounds) who has carried 65 times for 342 yards (5.3 avg.) on the season and will spell both Awuah and Brooks. Bo Dyer provides depth, but hasn’t been very effective. Alabama counters with Heisman Trophy candidate Mark Ingram ahead of Trent Richardson and Roy Upchurch. The breadth of advantage here is so large that there’s no point in quoting Ingram’s numbers. Look for Demetrius Goode to play in this one as well, along with Terry Grant if Grant is healthy. Fullback Baron Huber might even get a carry. Advantage: Alabama

WIDE RECEIVERS
Leading receiver Blue Cooper has caught 82 balls for 817 yards (10.0 avg.) and 7 touchdowns, but he’s a possession receiver by trade who makes his reputation on being able to get open on shorter routes against Division-IAA defenses. He won’t have that luxury against Alabama. Chris Pitchford (42 catches, 512 yards, 12.2 avg., 5 TD) and Clint Woods (29, 250, 8.6, 1) are the other starters, with Garrett Hughes and Terrance Davis providing depth. Hughes could be an issue at 6’4”, 215 pounds. Ryan Geist starts at tight end, but is undersized. UTC will use four-wide sets as often as not. Jare Gault and Justin Buckhalter add depth. Alabama counters with Julio Jones, who is just now hitting his stride in 2009, while Marquis Maze has developed into a weapon opposite him. Darius Hanks, Earl Alexander and Mike McCoy provide the lion’s share of the depth. Alabama figures to get tight end Colin Peek back full-time this week, although Michael Williams has done a good job filling in for the injured Peek. Preston Dial and Brad Smelley provide depth there. Alabama will have to account for Hughes’ size, and Cooper’s productivity probably isn’t a mirage. But Alabama is simply better. Advantage: Alabama

OFFENSIVE LINE
Alabama’s lineup of William Vlachos in the middle, Mike Johnson and Barrett Jones at the guards and Drew Davis and James Carpenter at tackle has slowly developed into one of the best lines in the country. Fans should expect to see all five, in addition to reserves Tyler Love, Chance Warmack, John Michael Boswell, David Ross, Brian Motley, Taylor Pharr and Alfred McCullough in this game. UTC counters with Adam Miller, Justin Galyon, Chris Harr, Omre Harris and T.J. Hurless. The Mocs have OK depth for Divison I-AA, but not against Alabama – not to mention UTC’s woes in running the football so far in 2009. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSE

UTC’s defense has carried the team so far in 2009. The Mocs are good against the pass (19th in Div-IAA) and decent against the run (49th). Scoring defense is an issue, though (63rd). The Mocs use a fairly generic 4-3 defensive alignment that is predicated on speed, given that the front seven is puny by SEC standards, but the Mocs also employ the 3-3-5 much of the time. UTC gets a good pass rush from its defensive ends. Alabama counters with one of the best defensive units in all of college football. The Tide will bring multiple looks from its 3-4/over-under and should have little trouble shutting down the Mocs’ offense. Alabama’s worst defensive stat is raw pass defense, where the Tide ranks 11th.

DEFENSIVE LINE
UTC’s two starting defensive ends, Josh Beard and Joshua Williams, weigh 250 and 210 pounds, respectively. Williams is a freshman. B.J. Taylor, the team’s nose tackle, weighs close to 300 pounds and is the only real threat against the run. La’Nard Carr provides depth inside, but he weighs only 250 and is about the same size as Alabama’s Nick Gentry. Pete Evans plays both inside and outside, while the Mocs will go mostly with extra linebackers when the defensive ends need a breather. Beard is definitely the star of the show, garnering 12 sacks on the year, while Williams has 7. Alabama counters with Terrence Cody and Josh Chapman in the middle and Lorenzo Washington, Brandon Deaderick, Marcell Dareus and Luther Davis outside. Expect to also see Kerry Murphy, Nick Gentry and Milton Talbert in this game. UTC’s bunch has played gamely this season, but there’s no comparison between these two squads. Only Beard is a player Alabama needs to account for. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS
This is probably the strength of the Mocs’ defense in terms of numbers. Joseph Thornton, Ryan Consiglio, Steven Smigelsky and Doug Faatiliga are the top players in this group, followed by Jaron Norfleet and Thomas Green. Faatiliga and Norfleet have good size, while the others rely on their quickness to make plays. Alabama counters with Rolando McClain and Nico Johnson inside and Cory Reamer and Eryk Anders outside. Courtney Upshaw gives Alabama a pass rusher off the bench. Expect to see Chavis Williams and Chris Jordan play in this game, along with perhaps Alex Watkins or even Michael DeJohn. UTC has good depth, but the starters make few game-changing plays and Alabama is better all the way around. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS
Buster Skrine, Jordan Tippit, Joel Bradford and Chris Lewis-Harris form the nucleus of UTC’s secondary. Tony Swafford and Robert Harrison provide depth. Tippit’s 5 interceptions are more than the rest of the secondary combined. Alabama will use cornerback trio Kareem Jackson, Marquis Johnson and Javier Arenas, and safety group Justin Woodall, Mark Barron and Robby Green. Look for Ali Sharrief, Tyrone King Jr., Chris Rogers and Dre Kirkpatrick to also get playing time in this game, along with Robert Lester and perhaps Kyle Pennington. Alabama’s group is more adept at creating turnovers – Barron leads the league in interceptions – and is more athletic. Again, no comparison. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS
UTC’s Craig Camay has hit 16 of 18 field goals in 2009 but has missed 2 extra points. Punter Mike Hammons averages just under 40 yards per kick, but the Mocs lag behind in net punting, owing to a problem covering kicks. Joel Bradford is one of Division-IAA’s best punt returners, but the Mocs don’t return kickoffs well. Alabama counters with Leigh Tiffin, who has had an award-winning year at placekicker, while punter P.J. Fitzgerald continues to be solid. Javier Arenas gives Alabama a distinct edge in the return game, but Alabama is dead last in the SEC in covering kickoffs. Punt coverage is much better. With the exception of kickoff coverage, Alabama holds a solid lead in all comparisons here. Advantage: Alabama

OVERALL

Alabama leads in all eight categories and strongly leads in the OL-vs.-DL matchups. UTC has had a good year within its conference and division, but it has little hope of hanging with Alabama for long.

In fact, if anything stops Alabama in this game, it will be Alabama itself, through dumb penalties or missed assignments. Given that the coaches would like to sit the starters as soon as possible and get ready for Auburn, however, don’t expect Alabama to waste much time building a big lead.

Only breakdowns in special teams could end up costing Alabama against Tennessee-Chattanooga. But don’t expect the score to be close enough to draw such issues into the discussion.

Alabama 55
UT-Chattanooga 7 ]]> TideFans.com Articles JessN http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/96687-utc-preview-alabama-looking-meld-off-week-game-week.html http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/96686-sec-previews-predictions-week-12-a.html Wed, 18 Nov 2009 07:23:00 GMT *SEC preview and predictions – Week 12* By Jess Nicholas TideFans.com... SEC preview and predictions – Week 12
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-in-Chief
Nov. 18, 2009

Last week’s record: 7-0 (100.0%)
Season record: 68-15 (81.9%)

The Predictions Dept. not only had a second consecutive perfect week, we aced the Kentucky-Vanderbilt score on the dot. This week, the SEC’s West Division teams fight it out to help clear up the bowl picture, as Alabama and Florida go out of conference for a rest of sorts before finishing the season against hated rivals.

KENTUCKY at GEORGIA
The Wildcats could help their bowl standing immensely with a win here, but Georgia’s defense is starting to get a little better and Kentucky’s offense isn’t potent enough to punch through the Bulldogs’ front seven. Georgia’s win over Auburn last week assured the Bulldogs of bowl eligibility, but with Georgia Tech coming up, the Bulldogs would like to cement their place in a decent bowl before they have to contend with the more physical Yellow Jackets. This game figures to be fairly sloppy given that both teams are coming off big weeks.
Georgia 30
Kentucky 20

TENNESSEE-CHATTANOOGA at ALABAMA
See our extended preview!

VANDERBILT at TENNESSEE
Tennessee got embarrassed against Ole Miss and then had to contend with an armed robbery scandal lodged against three of its players. In other words, there’s no better time for Vanderbilt to come to town than this. Vandy has a good defense and can run the football, but the offense is completely one-dimensional. Unless Tennessee regresses to the form it showed against UCLA early in the season, this will be a cakewalk. But you never know with the Vols.
Tennessee 27
Vanderbilt 7

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at FLORIDA
The only question here will be how many series Tim Tebow plays before putting on a baseball cap and watching the beatdown.
Florida 48
FIU 7

MISSISSIPPI STATE at ARKANSAS (Little Rock, Ark.)
If Mississippi State wants to go to the postseason, the Bulldogs must beat Arkansas on the road. Not only is that a tall order, but Arkansas wants some payback for an embarrassing loss suffered last year. Alabama dominated MSU, but the key here will be how well Arkansas’ rush defense contains Anthony Dixon. Mississippi State could pull the upset if Dixon keeps the high-powered Arkansas offense on the bench.
Arkansas 30
Mississippi St. 24

LOUISIANA STATE at MISSISSIPPI
Cotton Bowl bids are likely on the line in this game, as Ole Miss tries to get to nine wins before the season ends and secure a spot in a New Year’s Day game. Ole Miss couldn’t have looked better last week against Tennessee, while a hurting LSU team flailed away against Louisiana Tech before finally beating the Bulldogs with its athleticism. Ole Miss is being picked as the favorite by some in this game – which is almost an automatic recipe for disaster for a Houston Nutt-coached team. It would be better for Ole Miss’ chances if no one thought they had one. Too late.
LSU 27
Ole Miss 20

IDLE: South Carolina, Auburn ]]> TideFans.com Articles JessN http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/96686-sec-previews-predictions-week-12-a.html http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/96685-sec-bowl-update-11-18-09-a.html Wed, 18 Nov 2009 07:20:05 GMT *96688SEC bowl update for 11-17-09* By Jess Nicholas TideFans.com... SEC bowl update for 11-17-09
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Nov. 18, 2009

Mississippi State’s loss and Ole Miss’ win last week helped add further clarity to the SEC bowl picture. Here’s a quick rundown of SEC teams’ likely destinations.

ALABAMA
Possibilities: BCS Championship Game, Sugar Bowl, Capital One Bowl
Most likely destination: Sugar Bowl vs. Cincinnati
Analysis: Nothing has changed from last week, with the exception of Brian Kelly becoming an even hotter name in regards to a potential job opening at Notre Dame. Alabama continues to track down Florida, but the Gators will still be favored in the SEC Championship Game. The win over Mississippi State almost completely eliminates the Capital One Bowl from consideration; for Alabama to land there, Florida would have to lose to Florida International or Florida State and then beat the Tide, or Alabama would have to drop its last two games plus the SEC Championship Game and have LSU would win out. It’s not impossible (to lose to Florida State, at least), but highly unlikely.
Worst-case scenario: Alabama’s worst-case fate lies in Florida’s hands. Even if Alabama lost to UT-Chattanooga and Auburn, the Tide would still be targeted for New Orleans provided Florida won out and then lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Should the Gators get to Atlanta at 12-0 as expected, Alabama won’t have to worry about a bowl game in the state of Florida unless the Tide somehow loses to UT-Chattanooga.

FLORIDA
Possibilities: BCS Championship Game, Sugar Bowl, Capital One Bowl
Most likely destination: BCS Championship Game vs. Texas
Analysis: Florida’s case is the reverse of Alabama’s. If Alabama gets to Atlanta undefeated, it locks the Gators into the Sugar Bowl as a worst-case scenario. But Florida fans would still consider a Sugar Bowl trip to be a major disappointment.
Worst-case scenario: By beating South Carolina, Florida all but locks LSU out of the discussion at the Sugar Bowl level. But if Florida and Alabama both lose before getting to Atlanta, the winner of this game will go to the Sugar and watch Texas and TCU fight it out for a national title in Pasadena.

LSU
Possibilities: Capital One Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl, Sugar Bowl
Most likely destination: Capital One Bowl vs. Penn State
Analysis: LSU’s path to the Sugar is pretty much covered over at this point. LSU would have to hope for either UT-Chattanooga to beat Alabama or Florida International to beat Florida. The likelihood of either happening is not very great, obviously. With Tennessee losing big to Ole Miss, LSU likely locked out the Outback Bowl as well, and will end up either in the Capital One or the Cotton Bowl. If LSU beats Ole Miss this weekend, the Capital One is assured even with a loss to Arkansas, unless both Florida and Alabama lose their final games of the year prior to meeting up in Atlanta. If LSU loses to Ole Miss, however, the Cotton might pick the Rebels. LSU in the Cotton probably draws Oklahoma State as the opponent.
Worst-case scenario: LSU could screw this up on its own by losing to both Ole Miss and Arkansas. In that scenario – and assuming both Ole Miss and Arkansas beat Mississippi State in those teams’ other game – the Cotton would probably take Arkansas, and the Capital One would end up with either Ole Miss – or even Georgia, depending on how the Bulldogs finish – thus sending LSU to the Outback to face Iowa.

GEORGIA
Possibilities: Outback Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Music City Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Capital One Bowl, Papajohns.com Bowl
Most likely destination: Outback Bowl vs. Iowa
Analysis: Is the SEC East a mess or what? Georgia went from potentially bowl-ineligible to perhaps landing the Capital One Bowl all as a result of beating Auburn. For Georgia to get to the Capital One, though, several things have to happen, one of them being a complete meltdown by LSU over the last two weeks of the season to include a loss to Mississippi State. Failing that, all Georgia has to do is win one of its final two games (Kentucky is much more likely to fall than is Georgia Tech) and the Bulldogs will be back in a New Year’s Day bowl in Florida – unless, that is, Ole Miss wins out, which would reshuffle this bag once again. Or perhaps Auburn upsets Alabama. Any number of things could happen, but barring an upset by Ole Miss of LSU, Georgia is in the Outback with a win over the Wildcats.
Worst-case scenario: Lose to Kentucky and Georgia Tech both, and there’s no limit to how far Georgia could fall. South Carolina could get to 7-5 by upsetting Clemson; Auburn, LSU and Ole Miss are already there and Arkansas will be there just by beating MSU. Kentucky would leapfrog Georgia with a win, and Tennessee could still finish 7-5 just by taking care of business in the final week. If all of that happens, Georgia would be headed to the Papajohns.com Bowl against, probably, a Rutgers team that is playing its best football of the year right now.

OLE MISS
Possibilities: Capital One Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Independence Bowl
Most likely scenario: Cotton Bowl vs. Oklahoma State
Analysis: Ole Miss did itself and its fans a great favor by beating Tennessee soundly last week, because the win got the Rebels out of Birmingham and into, potentially, a New Year’s Day bowl in Dallas. Ole Miss could shuffle all the way up to Orlando by beating LSU and then hoping the Tigers also drop one to Arkansas, but the Capital One probably favors LSU strongly over Ole Miss due to the size of the respective fan bases. The Cotton would prefer to get Arkansas, but if Ole Miss finishes at 9-3, the conference will push the Cotton to take Ole Miss. The rest of the picture – Outback, Chick-fil-A, etc. – is in play if Ole Miss loses its last two and the rest of the division also shakes up.
Worst-case scenario: The Rebels probably x’ed out Nashville as well as Birmingham with the win over Tennessee, but they didn’t make Shreveport a foregone conclusion just yet. Losses to LSU and Mississippi State would put Ole Miss at 7-5, and any kind of ties with other SEC West teams almost immediately drop Ole Miss to the bottom of the pecking order. Then it comes down to whether the Liberty Bowl takes Arkansas or Ole Miss, and the loser of that pick ends up in Shreveport for the holidays.

ARKANSAS
Possibilities: Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Independence Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Music City Bowl, Papajohns.com Bowl
Most likely destination: Liberty Bowl vs. East Carolina
Analysis: Houston played itself out of this bowl last week by losing to Central Florida, because the Cougars now trail SMU in Conference USA’s West Division and SMU finishes with patsies Tulane and Marshall. That leaves the winner of what will probably be SMU-East Carolina as CUSA’s representative in this game. Arkansas will probably beat Mississippi State but fall to LSU to finish the season, which would leave the Razorbacks at 7-5. The Cotton is barely in play, and would require LSU to drop both its final games. The Outback would prefer Georgia, and the Chick-fil-A prefers South Carolina or Auburn. That leaves the Liberty and the Independence, and both bowls would dearly love to invite the Hogs.
Worst-case scenario: Two losses would put Arkansas at 6-6, and would bring the Music City and Papajohns.com into play. Most likely in that case, Arkansas would end up in Birmingham.

AUBURN
Possibilities: Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl, Independence Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl
Most likely destination: Independence Bowl vs. Texas Tech
Analysis: The Independence Bowl’s dream of an offensive showdown continues to have a heartbeat, but if Auburn beats Alabama then all bets are off. The Big 12 also has to hold up its end of the bargain, and that could get cloudy if Oklahoma or Iowa State are available at this slot. Would the Independence thumb its nose at the SEC and take Iowa State to set up a Gene Chizik showdown? Given that the contract between this bowl and the SEC ends after this year, possibly. But if Georgia or Ole Miss falters down the stretch, Auburn could vault into the Cotton or Outback with a win over Alabama.
Worst-case scenario: Again, Auburn’s worst-case scenario is probably its most likely, although the Chick-fil-A could pass up South Carolina or Tennessee to take Auburn.

TENNESSEE
Possibilities: Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Music City Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Papajohns.com Bowl, Independence Bowl
Most likely destination: Chick-fil-A Bowl vs. Miami
Analysis: Tennessee blew its postseason in a big way by getting blown out against Ole Miss. While the Cotton and Outback remain possibilities, they do so only if Tennessee gets major help down the stretch. The Cotton is now an infinitesimally small possibility that would require the following: Georgia to lose out, Arkansas to lose out, Alabama or Florida to win out and the other to win out with the exception of the SEC Championship Game, LSU to get the Cap One and the Outback to opt for Ole Miss rather than Tennessee. In other words, it probably isn’t happening. The Outback is a possibility, but only slightly more so, and would require Kentucky to beat Georgia and probably Arkansas to lose out. That leaves the Chick-fil-A as almost a perfect fit, unless its bowl reps prefer Auburn.
Worst-case scenario: Tennessee is still not bowl-eligible, and now the Papajohns.com and Independence are legitimate options. But it’s a good bet Tennessee falls no farther than the Music City, which would almost surely take Tennessee over South Carolina or Mississippi State.

SOUTH CAROLINA
Possibilities: Outback Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Music City Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Independence Bowl, Papajohns.com Bowl
Most likely destination: Music City Bowl vs. Virginia Tech
Analysis: The Gamecocks really only have two legitimate options, the Music City or the Papajohns.com, and it depends mostly on what Kentucky and Tennessee do with each other and Vanderbilt down the stretch. That assumes South Carolina doesn’t upset Clemson, which would touch off a major reshuffling among as many as six bowls. The Music City probably would prefer South Carolina over Kentucky if for no other reason than to get Steve Spurrier into this game, and a matchup with Virginia Tech would be a nice defensive showdown.
Worst-case scenario: If the Music City opts for Kentucky, South Carolina ends up in the Papajohns.com against Rutgers – unless Mississippi State miraculously gets bowl-eligible, at which point South Carolina could miss out on a SEC bowl game entirely.

KENTUCKY
Possibilities: Music City Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Papajohns.com Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Outback Bowl
Most likely scenario: Papajohns.com Bowl vs. Rutgers
Analysis: If Tennessee manages to bounce back to form, and Georgia continues to play well, Kentucky will finish at 6-6 and end up facing a fairly tough test in this game from a Big East team, possibly Rutgers. A win in either of those games will vault Kentucky into one of the Tennessee-based bowls, or perhaps the Chick-fil-A. Win both, and Kentucky may be headed for the Outback.
Worst-case scenario: Losses to Georgia and Tennessee would likely leave Kentucky to play in Birmingham. Kentucky's best bet for a better bowl at that point would be to hope that South Carolina lost to Clemson and that the Music City Bowl would pass over the Gamecocks in favor of the Wildcats.

MISSISSIPPI STATE
Possibilities: Music City Bowl, Independence Bowl, Papajohns.com Bowl
Most likely scenario: Left out, possibly picking up the GMAC Bowl or the New Mexico Bowl
Analysis: When Mississippi State failed to upset Alabama, it locked the Bulldogs into consideration for one of the conference’s bottom three bowls, and that’s assuming State finds a way to beat Ole Miss and Arkansas to end the year. If State does manage to finish bowl-eligible, the Bulldogs will be the least attractive bowl team unless the Independence or Papajohns.com decides the Bulldogs are a better draw than South Carolina or Kentucky. Otherwise, MSU will have to go shopping for a bowl that can’t fill its allotment.
Worst-case scenario: Mississippi State sits home, while bowls with at-large slots take other teams. ]]> TideFans.com Articles JessN http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/96685-sec-bowl-update-11-18-09-a.html http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/96557-msu-wrap-up-tide-offense-coming-together-right-time.html Mon, 16 Nov 2009 02:57:58 GMT 96558MSU wrap-up: *Tide offense coming together at the right time* By... MSU wrap-up: Tide offense coming together at the right time
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Nov. 15, 2009

With the postseason upon Alabama, it’s nice to know the Crimson Tide machine is running on premium gas.

Cornerback Marquis Johnson had one of the best individual defensive performances in recent Alabama memory, and the offense got things rolling both on the ground and in the air in a complete domination of a Mississippi State team looked on Saturday like the bottom-feeder observers said it was in the preseason. Of course, it’s easy to look like a bottom-feeder when facing one of the most dominant Alabama teams in the last 30 years.

Mississippi State had its chances early, but Alabama took MSU’s two best shots in the first quarter, shots that ended in turning the ball over on downs the first time and a Mark Barron interception the second time. By the time halftime rolled around and Alabama walked off the field with a 14-0 lead, the game was pretty much done. Even two breakdowns in kickoff coverage in the second half weren’t enough to let State back in the game.

For those looking for a “Heisman moment” from Mark Ingram, it might have come in the second quarter, when Ingram lost his helmet, suffered a gash across his forehead, perhaps from someone’s cleat, but still had the presence of mind to reach across the goal line for the touchdown. He then put his own exclamation point on the night with a 70-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter that emptied the stadium of all but a few thousand wildly cheering Alabama fans.

Defensively, Marquis Johnson was a human PBU. He broke up three deep passes, smartly interfered with another play in lieu of giving up a long touchdown and then intercepted a pass on State’s final potential scoring drive.

Johnson was once the target of fan angst, as was quarterback Greg McElroy. McElroy responded with arguably his best – or at least, most efficient – night in a Crimson Tide uniform. Only a couple of overthrown passes on bubble screens kept his night from being perfect. What he gave was more than good enough, however, leading the team with a confident presence and picking apart an improving-but-still-vulnerable Mississippi State secondary.

There won’t be much to discern from Alabama’s upcoming game with UT-Chattanooga. Alabama ought to be able to start the entire second team and still win by 35. The most important goal against the Mocs will be to ensure no key players get hurt.

But with Auburn emerging on the horizon the following week, and then the showdown with Florida in Atlanta coming the week afterward, the signs of life shown by the Alabama offense Saturday have to be good news for Alabama fans. If the offense is starting to actually get on track this late in the SEC schedule, good things will surely follow.

Head coach Nick Saban wasn’t totally pleased, however. He made mention of Alabama’s consistently sorry kickoff coverage in his postgame comments to the media, and unless Alabama fixes it – the Tide is currently dead last in the SEC in the stat – Florida’s Brandon James, for instance, might take full advantage of it at a time Alabama could ill afford.

There are just two weeks left in the season, two weeks before Alabama can play for its 22nd SEC title. Alabama would be ill-advised to put the machine in cruise control and overlook UT-Chattanooga and Auburn while awaiting the Gators.

Fortunately, Saban has proven to be a top-shelf motivator in these situations. And if the offense ramps its play up to match that of the defense, all Alabama fans will be having a very Merry Christmas. ]]> TideFans.com Articles JessN http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/96557-msu-wrap-up-tide-offense-coming-together-right-time.html http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/96183-msu-preview-bulldogs-better-than-expected-but-still-thin.html Tue, 10 Nov 2009 04:08:23 GMT MSU preview: *Bulldogs better than expected, but still thin* By Jess... MSU preview: Bulldogs better than expected, but still thin
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Nov. 9, 2009

When Dan Mullen took over as head coach of Mississippi State, he did so to a chorus of snickers from many, who viewed the young coaching prospect as loony for stepping off into the abyss that has been Bulldog football since the crash and burn of Jackie Sherrell’s career.

Instead, Mullen – whose team looked like a 2-10 outfit in the spring – has the Bulldogs reasonably close to being bowl-eligible. The Bulldogs are 4-5 and have Arkansas and Ole Miss left after playing Alabama. It would be a tough mountain to climb to get bowl-eligible, but it’s not impossible.

This week, however, Mississippi State has what is, at worst, its second-toughest game of the year. The Bulldogs played Florida gamely Oct. 24, losing 29-19, but that score was affected by an interception returned for a touchdown just before halftime. In reality, the Bulldog offense just couldn’t penetrate Florida’s superior defense.

Alabama shouldn’t be looking past Mississippi State to Florida, but it’s a good bet the Tide coaches will use Mississippi State as a tune-up for the Florida offense. Mullen was Urban Meyer’s offensive coordinator at Florida and many consider him to be a co-architect of the spread-option scheme along with Meyer. Overall, however, the Bulldog defense and special teams are mediocre, and MSU turns the ball over too much.

OFFENSE

Mullen deserves praise for taking a bunch of players recruited for the West Coast offense and making spread-option performers out of them. The Bulldogs have no real quarterback, and the receivers are average on their best day. But Mississippi State does have running backs Anthony Dixon and Christian Ducre, giving the Bulldogs as good a one-two punch as there is in the conference. Look for State to leverage that depth at running back into as much as can be gotten from it. Alabama counters with its multiple offense that offers multiple looks and countless formations, but is at its heart a pro-style spread attack featuring a strong running game. The offense is coming off arguably its best game of the season given the level of competition.

QUARTERBACKS
Tyson Lee may be the only player on the Bulldogs’ current roster to have benefited from the change to the spread-option. He’s too small to play QB in the SEC, doesn’t have a great arm for a pro-set attack and sometimes doesn’t make the best decisions. But the spread-option covers up his shortcomings fairly well. On the season, he’s 112-of-189 (59.3%) for 1,271 yards. The problem has been his turnovers; he has 11 interceptions against just 4 touchdowns. His backup is Chris Relf, who hasn’t played much quarterback lately but does get in the game as a running back sometimes. Relf is bigger than the 5’11”, 190-pound Lee, but isn’t as accurate nor does he know the offense as well. Alabama counters with Greg McElroy, who is coming off one of his best performances of the season. McElroy is 140-of-236 (59.3%) for 1,721 yards, 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, reversing Lee’s numbers over the final two stats. Who his backup is at the moment is open to question. Logic would dictate that Star Jackson has the slot, but rumors have run rampant over the past couple of weeks that Thomas Darrah and even true freshman A.J. McCarron were in the mix, the latter an option if McElroy was injured. Backing up those assertions was the fact Darrah ran the second team in pregame for Tennessee, while McCarron handled the job prior to the LSU game, even staying on to signal in the plays in Jackson’s place once the game got started. While Relf has more experience than all of Alabama’s backups put together, it won’t matter as long as McElroy stays healthy. Lee is doing the best he can, but McElroy has more tools. Advantage: Alabama

RUNNING BACKS
Alabama has a Heisman Trophy candidate on its sideline, but Mississippi State hasn’t done badly in 2009. Anthony Dixon is the league’s best pure power back. He’s carried 182 times for 1,001 yards (5.5 avg.) and 9 touchdowns this year. His backup, Christian Ducre (45 carries, 263 yards, 5.8 avg., 2 TD) is better than a lot of teams’ starters. Chris Relf (43 carries, 292 yards, 6.8 avg.) and Arnil Stallworth add depth along with Robert Elliot. MSU has no full-time fullback, but Stallworth sometimes plays the position, as does Alabama transfer Patrick Hanrahan and Sylvester Hemphill. Alabama counters with the aforementioned Heisman candidate, Mark Ingram, who has carried 175 times for 1,148 yards (6.6 avg.) and 8 touchdowns. Backups Trent Richardson and Roy Upchurch have been equally effective when used. Terry Grant missed the LSU game with injury; if he’s out, Demetrius Goode will be the fourth-teamer. Like State, Alabama eschews a full-time fullback, although Baron Huber is available in short-yardage situations. This is actually a fairly close call, as both Ingram and Dixon will certainly find homes one day in the NFL – as might several of their backups – but Ingram is playing on a different plane right now. Advantage: Alabama

WIDE RECEIVERS
This is the area of the Bulldog offense that needs the largest talent infusion. True freshman Chad Bumphis (26 catches, 290 yards, 11.2 avg., 3 TD) leads the list, with undersized tight end Marcus Green (22 catches, 264 yards, 12.0 avg., 2 TD) coming next. Bumphis has also thrown a couple of passes and will take the end-around on occasion, which means he is basically the poor man’s Percy Harvin for this offense. Behind him and and Green are O’Neal Wilder, who has caught 12 passes for 212 yards (17.7 avg.) and 1 touchdown, although the bulk of his yardage came on one big play against a busted coverage. Brandon McRae and Leon Berry are the other starters along with Wilder (Bumphis comes off the bench), while Tay Bowser and Brandon Heavens offer depth. Kendrick Cook backs up Green at tight end. Alabama counters with Julio Jones, who finally had a breakout game against LSU. But he’s not the team’s leading receiver – that honor goes to Marquis Maze (21 catches, 368 yards, 17.5 avg., 2 TD). Darius Hanks, Earl Alexander and Mike McCoy provide depth, with Hanks essentially a starter due to Alabama’s heavy use of three-wide sets. Tight end Colin Peek played only sparingly against LSU due to a knee injury, but should be ready to go for this one. Freshman Michael Williams did a good job in his stead Saturday, and is a big target at more than 6’7”, although he is not yet a polished receiver. Preston Dial and Brad Smelley will split the H-back position. Bumphis has a bright future, and some of the Bulldog receivers aren’t bad players, but Jones and Maze give Alabama a solid edge here, and if Peek is healthy, that edge extends to the tight end slot as well. Advantage: Alabama

OFFENSIVE LINE
Mullen was blessed to have a veteran offensive line already on campus when he arrived. Center J.C. Brignone has put together a nice career. Guards Quentin Saulsberry and Craig Jenkins are good at what they do. Left tackle Derek Sherrod is still a bit raw, but he has awesome physical ability. Addison Lawrence hasn’t done badly in his first year starting at right tackle. Depth is decent, with Chris Spencer a veteran presence inside, D.J. Looney a good backup center and Mark Melichar able to play just about any position. Alabama counters with William Vlachos at center flanked by guards Mike Johnson and Barrett Jones, while James Carpenter and Drew Davis man the tackle slots. The LSU game was by far this unit’s most consistent performance, and if they play anywhere close to last week’s effort in this game, the offense might never be stopped. Depth is a push, but the overall athleticism of the Alabama OL outpaces Mississippi State just a bit. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSE

Mississippi State runs mostly a 4-3 look, and the Bulldogs have several playmakers on this side of the ball. What they don’t have is consistency, or enough overall talent and depth. Mississippi State is a respectable 37th in pass efficiency defense, but is 40th in raw pass defense and much worse off against the run. Alabama counters with its 3-4 over/under scheme that has pretty much dominated everyone in its path in 2009. The Crimson Tide is 2nd in rushing defense, 3rd in pass efficiency defense, 4th in total defense and 6th in scoring defense. Alabama also gets far more sacks and tackles for loss than do the Bulldogs.

DEFENSIVE LINE
Pernell McPhee could very well have been a part of Alabama’s 2009 signing class, but a numbers crunch forced him to MSU. It’s been a good move for both parties, as he has nearly half his team’s total sack numbers and has been a headache for offensive coordinators. He starts at defensive end opposite Sean Ferguson, who hasn’t been even half as effective, a testament to the talent issue at hand in Starkville. The tackles are Kyle Love and Charles Burns. Burns is smallish, while Love has the size but isn’t particularly mobile. Depth issues have forced Fletcher Cox, a true defensive end, to play inside off the bench. Brandon Cooper and Nick Bell are the backup ends, but there is nothing behind them and neither player is particularly fear-inducing. Alabama counters with probably the best group in the conference. Terrence Cody and Josh Chapman man the inside, while Brandon Deaderick, Lorenzo Washington, Luther Davis and Marcell Dareus hold down the end positions. Alabama will have to account for McPhee, as well as Cox when he’s on the field, but MSU will have to worry about every single Tide lineman that lines up. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS
Alabama would gladly take Jamar Chaney on its team right now. Chaney is one of the most unsung SEC linebackers, back for a sixth year after suffering a leg injury in the 2008 opener. He’s the team’s leading tackler and is just at home in coverage as he is rushing the passer or providing run support. K.J. Wright is a physical freak at outside linebacker but needs to play more under control. Chris White is a good weakside backer. These three players occupy the top three places on State’s tackle list. Terrell Johnson, Michael Hunt and Brandon Wilson offer depth, but none play regularly. Alabama counters with the country’s best inside linebacker, Rolando McClain, flanked by Nico Johnson and outside backer Cory Reamer. Eryk Anders continues to have a strong season at the hybrid Jack position. Courtney Upshaw, Chris Jordan and Jerrell Harris provide depth, although Alabama typically uses few bench players in its base linebacker corps. Chaney is an outstanding player, and Wright a major raw talent, but Alabama has been better all around and McClain’s presence is an undeniable edge. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS
Mississippi State was among the nation’s best in 2008, but graduation hit hard and the 2009 group has been trying to play catch-up the entire year. Marcus Washington, a cornerback, is the lone returning starter from the 2008 secondary. Junior college transfer Maurice Langston lines up opposite him. Langston was such a surprise starter after taking over in the third week of the year that his bio doesn’t even appear on the Mississippi State official site. Damein Anderson offers plenty of experience off the bench. Charles Mitchell and Jonathan Banks start at the safety positions, with Banks showing a particular affinity for interceptions. Wade Bonner and Emmanuel Gatling provide depth. Alabama counters with its cornerback trio of Javier Arenas, Marquis Johnson and Kareem Jackson and its safety group of Mark Barron, Justin Woodall, Robby Green and Tyrone King Jr. The Bulldogs have improved steadily over the course of the season, but Alabama is playing much better football at the moment and has an edge both in depth and athleticism. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS
Punter Heath Hutchins has had a tough time in 2009, and MSU as a whole is dead last in the conference in net punting and 114th nationally in the stat. The Bulldogs could use a pair of kickers, both JUCO transfers. Sean Brauchle won the job coming out of fall camp, but has been battling a hip injury. Derek DePasquale has kicked the last five games. Both players look fairly reliable from 40 yards in. MSU is mediocre on punt returns but is very good on kickoff returns, placing 28th nationally and 4th in the conference. Alabama counters with Leigh Tiffin at placekicker and P.J. Fitzgerald at punter. Tiffin became the team’s leading scorer all-time last week, and is currently ranked 1st nationally in field goals per game, one of those stats that might not be a good thing. Fitzgerald has been very solid. Alabama’s kick coverage got a lot better once Jerrell Harris came off suspension, but there are still some nervous moments from time to time. Alabama’s return game is a real weapon thanks to Javier Arenas. Both teams have their weak points, but Alabama is just better across the board. Advantage: Alabama

OVERALL

Alabama leads in all eight categories, and comfortably wins both OL-DL matchups. In short, the Tide should roll.

Mississippi State’s best hope for victory is the element of surprise, or failing that, and incredible over-the-head effort combined with officiating weirdness or a meteorite landing at midfield right at kickoff. In other words, if Alabama plays its game, Mississippi State can’t win.

Alabama needs to guard only against looking ahead to Auburn or Florida. The Crimson Tide simply has better athletes, a better coaching staff and a more cohesive system on both sides of the ball than do the Bulldogs, who are still getting accustomed to Mullen’s ways. If Alabama can keep the course and avoid several crippling injuries, this one should be a fairly clear win.

Because of the emotional letdown from beating SEC West rival LSU last week, don’t be surprised to see the score fairly close at halftime. But Alabama should eventually pull away to a two-score win at least.

Alabama 34
Mississippi St. 17 ]]> TideFans.com Articles JessN http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/96183-msu-preview-bulldogs-better-than-expected-but-still-thin.html http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/96182-sec-preview-predictions-week-11-a.html Tue, 10 Nov 2009 04:03:45 GMT SEC preview and predictions – Week 11
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-in-Chief
Nov. 9, 2009

Last week’s record: 8-0 (100.0%)
Season record: 61-15 (80.3%)

The Predictions Dept. doesn’t often have undefeated weeks this late in the season, but Week 10 was good to us. As Week 11 approaches, Georgia and Auburn square off in a game between two teams that no one can figure out, while Florida gets its last SEC test of the season.

AUBURN at GEORGIA
This series has been screwy for years. The road team actually seemed to hold the advantage for some time. Add to that the upside-down season Georgia has had in 2009, Auburn’s thin defense, budding fan discontent with the Bulldog coaching staff and you have the recipe for one weird ballgame. Georgia’s defense has played with the consistency of skim milk in 2009, a dangerous thing given that Auburn’s offense can be very potent. But Georgia’s offense ought to find Auburn’s defense similarly porous. Although it would be somehow fitting if this game ended 6-3, look for this one to turn into one of those offensive showcases that TV networks love. And oh-by-the-way, Georgia still needs one victory to get bowl-eligible, and Auburn might be the easiest team left on the schedule.
Georgia 42
Auburn 38

ALABAMA at MISSISSIPPI STATE
See our extended preview!

KENTUCKY at VANDERBILT
Kentucky needs this win in order to get to a bowl game. Vanderbilt has played better in recent weeks, and especially since replacing Larry Smith at quarterback with Mackenzi Adams, but Kentucky has more to play for at the moment. If the Wildcats lose this game and Auburn beats Georgia, Kentucky and Georgia would face off as a pair of 5-5 teams next week and the loser probably would slip all the way to 5-7 (and ineligible for a bowl game) in the process. Even though Vandy is playing reasonably good football at the moment, the Commodores just don’t have the offensive firepower they need.
Kentucky 24
Vanderbilt 13

TENNESSEE at MISSISSIPPI
These two teams are headed in opposite directions at the moment. Tennessee has played very well the last four weeks, going 3-1 over that span and narrowly missing an upset of Alabama. Ole Miss, on the other hand, had a chance to reassert itself in the SEC picture two weeks ago but came unglued against a mediocre Auburn team. Although the Rebels have home-field advantage in this one, just off the strength of Tennessee’s offensive resurgence, it would seem the Vols now hold the upper hand. Ole Miss is now bowl-eligible off the strength of a win over Northern Arizona, but it’s not out of the realm of reason to suggest the Rebels will finish the season 6-6 unless Houston Nutt turns the team’s mental state around, and fast. Tennessee, on the other hand, should cruise through its last two games (Kentucky, Vanderbilt) and with a win here, could get to 8-4. Neither team is playing with confidence, so we’ll pick Ole Miss based off the strength of its secondary and having the home field. But we’re not comfortable with the pick.
Ole Miss 24
Tennessee 23

FLORIDA at SOUTH CAROLINA
South Carolina looked for a time like a potential SEC East contender. But the Gamecocks’ back-loaded schedule is catching up with them, as well as a general lack of athletes and difference-makers. It doesn’t help that Steve Spurrier’s offensive philosophy may now actually be a liability rather than a strength. And against Florida, the Gamecocks have no chance. South Carolina is likely on its way to a 6-6 regular season and a trip to Nashville or Memphis over the holidays. Only an injury to Tim Tebow could keep Florida from winning this game.
Florida 29
South Carolina 7

TROY at ARKANSAS
The Trojans have scored 40 or more points in their last four games and 30 or more in their last six. They have the reputation for being upset-minded (remember the near-miss against LSU? The beatdown of Oklahoma State?), but Arkansas is playing solid football right now and can smell postseason eligibility. A win either here or against Mississippi State in a week would give it to them. Troy’s pass defense is terrible, which will probably be the difference between this being just another quality loss for the Trojans versus being an upset opportunity.
Arkansas 48
Troy 24

LOUISIANA TECH at LOUISIANA STATE
This is an interesting game for LSU, because the Tigers are badly bruised and battered after their loss to Alabama, while Louisiana Tech came close to upsetting Boise State last week and would like nothing better than to upset the state’s big team. For LSU, if Jordan Jefferson can’t go in this game, it could bring the margin closer (especially with RB Charles Scott now out for the year), but it’s hard to imagine a scenario that would have the Bulldogs winning this game, no matter how many Tigers were out or slowed.
LSU 27
Louisiana Tech 10 ]]> TideFans.com Articles JessN http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/96182-sec-preview-predictions-week-11-a.html http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/96181-sec-bowl-update-11-9-09-a.html Tue, 10 Nov 2009 04:01:27 GMT *96186SEC bowl update for 11-9-09* By Jess Nicholas TideFans.com... SEC bowl update for 11-9-09
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Nov. 9, 2009

Alabama’s win over LSU last week helped solidify the SEC bowl picture a great deal. Here’s a quick rundown of SEC teams’ likely destinations.

ALABAMA
Possibilities: BCS Championship Game, Sugar Bowl, Capital One Bowl
Most likely destination: Sugar Bowl vs. Cincinnati
Analysis: If Alabama gets to Atlanta undefeated, then loses to Florida, the Tide will go back to the Sugar Bowl against an overmatched opponent trying to prove its worth. Sound familiar? This year, that team would likely be either TCU or Cincinnati. Sugar Bowl officials would figure to go after TCU given the distance to New Orleans, but getting Cincinnati would match up Nick Saban against the coach many consider to be the next Nick Saban – Cincinnati’s Brian Kelly. Also, don’t underestimate the draw of inviting the Bearcats, whose alumni base is huge due to the size of the school.
Worst-case scenario: We’re going to assume Alabama beats Div-IAA UT-Chattanooga and not even consider an upset there, just to make this easy. For Alabama to fall to the Capital One, Alabama would have to probably lose all three of its remaining key games. Even a two-loss Alabama team would probably stick high enough in the BCS to qualify for New Orleans.

FLORIDA
Possibilities: BCS Championship Game, Sugar Bowl, Capital One Bowl
Most likely destination: BCS Championship Game vs. Texas
Analysis: Like Alabama, Florida would have to aim for the bottom in order to miss at least a trip to New Orleans. The Gators will certainly be favored over Alabama in Atlanta barring a slip-up versus South Carolina or Florida State. If Florida loses one of those two games and then loses also to Alabama, or just simply loses to Alabama, the Gators will lock themselves into the Sugar against either TCU or Cincinnati.
Worst-case scenario: If Florida somehow managed to finish on an 0-3 run, it would create nightmares for both the Cap One and the Sugar. Such a scenario would likely land home-state LSU in the Sugar and home-state Florida in the Capital One. Tourism dollars would be cut to near zero in both locales.

LSU
Possibilities: Sugar Bowl, Capital One Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl
Most likely destination: Capital One Bowl vs. Penn State
Analysis: LSU could sneak into the Sugar if either Alabama or Florida train-wrecks down the stretch, but the most likely destination will be the Capital One against Penn State. To get there, LSU needs to beat Arkansas, which lately has been easier said than done for the Tigers. Even if LSU loses again, it likely won’t be enough to fall from the Cotton. But couple an Arkansas loss with a loss to Ole Miss in two weeks, and now things get touchy. At 8-4, LSU would probably land in the Cotton against Oklahoma State or Nebraska, as the Capital One seems to prefer East Division teams.
Worst-case scenario: It’s LSU, so you at least have to account for a possible Louisiana Tech upset. If LSU were to lose out and finish 7-5, the Outback Bowl would be the likely final destination, against Wisconsin or Iowa. If the Tigers somehow ended up facing the Hawkeyes in the Outback, that would be somehow – and sadly – fitting given the expectations at both schools this year.

TENNESSEE
Possibilities: Capital One Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Music City Bowl, Liberty Bowl
Most likely destination: Cotton Bowl vs. Oklahoma State
Analysis: Don’t look now, but Tennessee is about to finish second in the SEC East. Even though that would seem to send them toward the Outback, the Cotton Bowl would love to have the Vols and a matchup with Oklahoma State would be highly entertaining. Tennessee is certainly the hottest team in the conference at the moment, and a strong finish would most likely be rewarded handsomely.
Worst-case scenario: Tennessee could theoretically miss the postseason altogether. Kentucky and Ole Miss are both very capable of beating the Volunteers, and Vanderbilt isn’t a total pushover. But a real nightmare would be figuring what to do with the Vols if they end up 6-6. In that case, the Liberty would be the likely destination so as to attract a large crowd. Anything in between sets off a cascade effect.

SOUTH CAROLINA
Possibilities: Outback Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Music City Bowl, Liberty Bowl
Most likely destination: Chick-fil-A Bowl vs. Miami
Analysis: Here’s a matchup that no one really wants to see, but would be intriguing anyway. The real issue here is that Clemson is tagged for this slot due to the way the ACC’s tie-ins shake out, but who’s going to rematch Clemson and South Carolina in this game? No one. So look for the Chick-fil-A to try to match Steve Spurrier against old in-state rival Miami. Unfortunately, it probably means the Gamecocks will finish the year 6-6 with losses to Clemson and Florida. The Outback becomes a possibility with a win over Clemson; the Cotton is a possibility only if USC wins both games.
Worst-case scenario: This gets down to who is doing the picking and when. Because of the screwy way the two divisions are finishing out this year, East Division teams are likely headed to traditionally West-leaning destinations (i.e., Tennessee in the Cotton) and vice versa. Georgia is the linchpin in the deal; if the Outback takes the Bulldogs, South Carolina goes to the Chick-fil-A. If the Outback takes Auburn, Georgia stays in Atlanta and South Carolina fights with Kentucky over one of the two Tennessee-based bowls.

GEORGIA
Possibilities: Outback Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Music City Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Capital One Bowl
Most likely destination: Outback Bowl vs. Iowa
Analysis: Georgia isn’t bowl-eligible yet, but the Bulldogs have winnable games against Auburn and Kentucky to close the season. Wins in those games and a loss to Georgia Tech would probably lock the Bulldogs into Tampa for the Outback. Georgia could also sneak into the Cotton if Tennessee drops a game to close the year. And if LSU completely self-destructs, Georgia could vault all the way to the Capital One.
Worst-case scenario: The Bulldogs could easily lose out and sit home for the holidays. Assuming they at least beat Kentucky, however, they would probably get the Liberty or Music City.

KENTUCKY
Possibilities: Chick-fil-A Bowl, Outback Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Music City Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Capital One Bowl, Papajohns.com Bowl
Most likely destination: Music City Bowl vs. Virginia Tech
Analysis: Just so we’re clear, Kentucky could still finish 8-4. If the Wildcats did so, they would get the Outback or the Cotton, guaranteed. For that matter, the Cap One isn’t even off the table at that point. More likely, however, Kentucky will beat Vanderbilt and finish 6-6, sending the Wildcats to the Music City for a lopsided matchup against Virginia Tech, who would likely maul them.
Worst-case scenario: Lose to Vanderbilt, and the only trip Kentucky will be taking will be to the corner store for some pizza to munch upon while watching the bowl games take place. Otherwise, depending on how the rest of the league finishes, Kentucky could find itself in Birmingham in the Papajohns.com Bowl facing West Virginia, South Florida or Rutgers.

AUBURN
Possibilities: Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl, Capital One Bowl, Independence Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl
Most likely destination: Independence Bowl vs. Texas Tech
Analysis: The Independence Bowl folks would be salivating over this matchup of goofy offenses. Auburn is guaranteed at least a 7-5 finish, though, so unless a couple of the also-ran East teams finish 7-5, the Tigers could be headed to Atlanta. If Auburn were to beat Georgia, though, the discussion then boils down to Cotton or Outback. Beat Alabama as well, and it’s a trip to the Capital One.
Worst-case scenario: Oddly enough, the worst-case scenario could also be the most likely scenario. The Chick-fil-A is the fly in the ointment. The Chick-fil-A is typically home to an East Division team, but Auburn’s proximity to Atlanta makes the Tigers attractive to the former Peach Bowl’s selection committee.

ARKANSAS
Possibilities: Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Independence Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Music City Bowl
Most likely destination: Liberty Bowl vs. Houston
Analysis: Talk about your offensive showcases. Houston would bring Case Keenum to this game while Arkansas would counter with Ryan Mallett. The game might not be over until February.
Worst-case scenario: Arkansas must still get a win to be bowl-eligible, but the Razorbacks do have Troy and Mississippi State still left on the schedule. Assuming the Hogs get one win but no more, they could fall all the way to Birmingham. But the Liberty will want Arkansas under any circumstance due to its proximity to Arkansas.

OLE MISS
Possibilities: Capital One Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Music City Bowl, Independence Bowl, Papajohns.com Bowl
Most likely scenario: Papajohns.com Bowl vs. Rutgers
Analysis: Ole Miss has the widest range of possibilities of any team. Winning out would mean a 9-3 season and probably a New Year’s Day bowl game. Losing out would mean 6-6 (and those three games are against Tennessee, LSU and rival Mississippi State) and a trip to Birmingham.
Worst-case scenario: Like Auburn, Ole Miss might find its worst-case scenario to be its most likely. The Rebels travel better than Mississippi State, so even if the Bulldogs get bowl-eligible, Ole Miss will probably get this slot and State will have to go find a home elsewhere. If there’s a logjam at 7-5, however, Ole Miss is the worst take of the bunch. Ole Miss’ best hope is to beat Mississippi State and then hope some conference teams stall out at 6-6.

MISSISSIPPI STATE
Possibilities: Cotton Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Music City Bowl, Independence Bowl, Papajohns.com Bowl
Most likely scenario: Left out, possibly picking up the GMAC Bowl or the New Mexico Bowl
Analysis: MSU is consistently the worst-represented SEC team on the road outside of Vanderbilt, and as such will likely be the odd man out under any scenario. The only way the Bulldogs could force the issue is to win out, which would given them 7 wins and vault them over any 6-6 team. At that point, even the Cotton is doable, depending on what LSU does. More likely, State would wind up in one of the four minor bowls, preferably the Independence or Papajohns.com
Worst-case scenario: No one likes to be left out in the cold, but the SEC has too many potentially bowl-eligible teams for its slots. The two other bowls most likely to lose a team are the New Mexico Bowl – which kicks off Dec. 19 to start the postseason – and the Jan. 6 GMAC Bowl in Mobile. But most likely, the Bulldogs end up sitting home altogether. ]]> TideFans.com Articles JessN http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/96181-sec-bowl-update-11-9-09-a.html http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/96010-lsu-wrap-up-alabama-has-become-team-no-one-wants-play.html Sun, 08 Nov 2009 07:35:49 GMT LSU wrap-up: *Alabama has become the team no one wants to play* By Jess... LSU wrap-up: Alabama has become the team no one wants to play
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Nov. 8, 2009

Alabama head coach Nick Saban talked about the concept when he was hired in 2007. He said he wanted Alabama to grow into the team no one wanted to face.

After watching one LSU player after another leave the Bryant-Denny Stadium playing surface with one physical malady or another, it became clear that those days aren’t coming at some point in the future – they’re already here.

Alabama’s most valuable player might have been Marcell Dareus. It might have been Greg McElroy, or it might have been Julio Jones. LSU’s MVP was its head trainer.

Like the South Carolina beatdown earlier in the year, the scoreboard was the only place Alabama didn’t completely dominate the game. The Tide ruled the stat sheets, it ruled the matching of wits between the two coaching staffs, and it certainly won the physical battle in both trenches – and everywhere else, for that matter.

The biggest surprise? Alabama did it with an offensive gameplan that seemed to be based in a five-wide, empty backfield set, determined to establish the pass. The plan worked – thanks largely to Alabama’s offensive line having its best showing of the year relative to the competition – and by the fourth quarter, Alabama’s running backs were gashing holes through the Tiger front seven, while confused safeties wondered whether Alabama would again try to attack through the air.

As for the Alabama defense, it continued to operate like an 11-man meat grinder. Once Alabama got a touchdown to go up 21-15, Alabama took on a look of confidence, while LSU appeared genuinely deflated. A touchdown and successful extra-point attempt would have given LSU the lead, but the message was subliminally understood even if not explicitly stated: Game over.

Slowly but surely, Alabama is becoming Alabama again. Lots of ink has been spilt and spread over the discussion of what being “back” means, but two straight trips to Atlanta ought to end the speculation. But it’s more than just a discussion based upon tangible concepts. There is also the abstract – whether Alabama “looks” physical, whether the Tide takes the fight to the opposition rather than being reactionary, whether Alabama can impose its will.

That benchmark, as far as the SEC West has gone in recent years, was LSU. The team built by Saban, and subsequently recruited admirably by Les Miles, was the watermark by which all other West teams were judged. Now, Alabama has a two-game winning streak against these Tigers, and it’s due mostly to Alabama grabbing the mantle of physical force away from Miles and his charges.

Lost in the discussion of who were the stronger, tougher men is this: Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy, who struggled mightily through a stretch of games in the middle of the season, did just about everything perfectly in this game. Alabama’s offense depends heavily on getting at least some key production from the quarterback position, so McElroy’s improvement was neither unnoticed nor unappreciated.

But the bigger story was indeed Alabama’s physical domination of LSU. With the win, Alabama wrested away from the Tigers the mantle of the West’s most physical team. Whether Alabama can lay claim to being the most physical team in the entire conference will be determined in the SEC Championship Game, in which Alabama has now guaranteed itself a spot.

This much is certain, though: Ask Jordan Jefferson, Charles Scott, T-Bob Hebert and other Bayou Bengals how physical Alabama was in this game. The final score tells the tale – as does the tally of LSU players leaving the field. It’s hard to imagine any team really wants to play Alabama right now, Florida included – and that’s just how Nick Saban probably likes it. ]]> TideFans.com Articles JessN http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/96010-lsu-wrap-up-alabama-has-become-team-no-one-wants-play.html http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/95626-lsu-preview-battle-sec-west-supremacy-comes-down-game.html Mon, 02 Nov 2009 07:45:46 GMT 95628LSU preview: *Battle for SEC West supremacy comes down to this game*... LSU preview: Battle for SEC West supremacy comes down to this game
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Nov. 2, 2009

There’s no other way to put this, no way to soften the impact: This is as much a must-win game for Alabama as there has ever been.

If Alabama wants to win a national championship in 2009, this game must be won. If Alabama wants to hold over LSU’s head in recruiting the supremacy of Nick Saban versus Les Miles, this game must be won. If Alabama wants to avenge its 2008 loss to Florida in the SEC Championship Game, this game must be won.

Of course, LSU could give it all right back to Alabama in the end. The Tigers don’t have much of an offense in 2009, and they are still yet to play Arkansas, a team that has become a major thorn in the Tigers’ paws recently and a team that very much does have an offense. In Alabama, LSU gets its mirror image – tough defense, inexperienced quarterback, an offense that tilts heavily towards the run and good special teams.

In Alabama’s favor is the fact the Tide has been stifling against the run in 2009, and Nick Saban has a good track record for scheming against John Chavis-coached defenses. Still, this game will be electric from kickoff to final horn, and the loser of this game – particularly if it’s Alabama – will likely be an odd man out once the postseason draw comes around.

OFFENSE

Both teams make heavy use of one-back sets and the pistol formation, but LSU has better athleticism at the quarterback position. LSU’s Gary Crowton and Alabama’s Jim McElwain are from the same basic offensive school, and both have reputations as savvy playcallers. Coincidentally, both men have taken some heat in 2009 from fans for what is perceived as curious playcalling in some situations. Both teams use multiple formations as a way to confuse defenses and execute basic plays.

QUARTERBACKS
Alabama’s Greg McElroy started 2009 as one of the hottest hands in the conference. In fact, after Week 4, McElroy was even getting some traction as a Heisman Trophy candidate. That talk ended rather quickly after a string of mediocre games that finally ended two weeks ago against Tennessee. LSU’s Jordan Jefferson has quietly put up very good numbers for a first-year starter. He has thrown for slightly less yardage than McElroy, but has a better completion percentage and more touchdowns. Jefferson is also a better runner than McElroy, although he hasn’t put up truly eye-popping numbers on the ground, rushing for just 143 yards on 77 carries (1.9 avg.) and 1 touchdown. Those numbers are similar to McElroy’s in terms of average yardage per carry. Were it just a comparison of starters, McElroy would probably get the nod due to his more advanced ability to work through progressions and find secondary receivers. Add the bench into the equation, however, and this matchup gets a lot closer. LSU’s Jarrett Lee was his team’s starter in 2008, but has played sparingly in 2009. Alabama counters with Star Jackson and Thomas Darrah, both of whom have played about as much as Lee this year. Jackson has better numbers than Lee, but Darrah ran the second team in warm-ups for the Tennessee game, and given how close those two were coming out of fall camp, it could mean Darrah has against caught Jackson on the depth chart. Regardless, this is the closest comparison on the board. We’ll score it for Alabama simply based off a touch more consistency. The depth advantage LSU enjoys fades a bit when Lee’s struggles in past SEC games are taken into consideration. Advantage: Alabama

RUNNING BACKS
Alabama’s Mark Ingram has carried 153 times for 1,004 yards (6.6 avg.) and 8 touchdowns this year. Those numbers are better than both Charles Scott and Keiland Williams for LSU combined. Scott has carried 103 times for 459 yards (4.5 avg.) and 4 touchdowns, while Williams has tripped it 44 times for 212 yards (4.8 avg.) and 2 touchdowns. The other issue has been that Scott and Williams simply haven’t been all that effective in key situations a startlingly high amount of the time. The wild card for LSU is Russell Shepard, who has carried 28 times for 225 yards (8.0 avg.) and 2 touchdowns, and has consistently put up big runs in nearly every game he’s carried the ball. Shepard is also considered potentially the team’s quarterback of the future, and while he has yet to attempt a pass in 2009, the potential is there. Alabama backs up Ingram with Trent Richardson (74 carries, 377 yards, 5.1 avg., 4 TD) and Roy Upchurch (17 carries, 144 yards, 8.5 avg., 1 TD). Terry Grant (40 carries, 166 yards, 4.2 avg., 3 TD) adds depth. Both teams have fullbacks on the roster in name only. For LSU, it’s converted lineman Richard Dugas, backed up by sophomore James Stampley. Neither has touched the ball this year. Alabama uses Baron Huber when it needs a short-yardage blocker; he has 1 catch for 4 yards. Scott and Williams should be the league’s best running back tandem, but it hasn’t worked out that way. And Ingram is now a Heisman candidate. Advantage: Alabama

WIDE RECEIVERS
Alabama has started to go to Julio Jones more in recent weeks, but the results have been mixed. Jones has done well on short receptions but has had trouble getting open on longer passes. His only long touchdown catch came on a gimmick play out of the Wildcat formation. The problem in recent weeks has been the inability of Marquis Maze and Darius Hanks to get open with any consistency. Maze has also been somewhat dinged up. Earl Alexander, Mike McCoy, Michael Bowman and Brandon Gibson add depth to the mix. The real issue now for Alabama is the health of tight end Colin Peek. Peek is 50-50 at best for this game; if he plays, he’s the best tight end in the SEC. Otherwise, Alabama could be in trouble. Alabama starts two tight ends in its base formation, with Preston Dial taking on the H-back duties. If Peek can’t go, freshman Michael Williams – a good blocker but below-average receiver – will have to step up. Brad Smelley will back up Dial, and Chris Underwood would step in to spell Williams. Baron Huber would also see time. LSU counters with a tremendous 1-2 punch in the form of Brandon LaFell (37 catches, 478 yards, 12.9 avg., 8 TD) and Terrance Toliver (38 catches, 501 yards, 13.2 avg., 3 TD). Ruben Randle and R.J. Jackson add depth, while Trindon Holliday will play in the slot and as a scatback out of the backfield. Tight end Richard Dickson is an accomplished blocker and will probably catch a pass or two, but he’s not likely to kill Alabama as a receiver. This category was somewhat close prior to Peek’s injury, but if Peek is even slowed substantially (which he will be even if he plays), then LSU gets the nod. Advantage: LSU

OFFENSIVE LINE
The Tigers have one of the best offensive lines in the league. Ciron Black is the SEC’s only true rock star left tackle, and he’ll get plenty of help on that side from Josh Dworaczyk. On the right side, underrated guard Lyle Hitt teams with tackle Joe Barksdale. T-Bob Hebert gets the call at center. The only question is depth. LSU’s entire second team is comprised of freshmen and sophomores, with no real standouts. Alabama counters with William Vlachos at center, flanked by guards Mike Johnson and Barrett Jones and tackles James Carpenter and Drew Davis. Like LSU, Alabama’s left side is its strongest. Alabama’s depth is superior, but LSU’s tackles pass protect better, and Hitt is a much better right guard than Jones is at this point. The issue for LSU has been pass protection from the interior. While Alabama leads the conference in sacks allowed, LSU is dead last in the conference in that stat, and 101st overall in the country. Part of it is due to Jordan Jefferson’s inexperience in reading complex defenses, and thus being a fixture in the pocket too long. It’s a close call, but the presence of Black and Barksdale at the tackle positions give LSU a slim edge. Advantage: LSU

DEFENSE

John Chavis’ 4-3 scheme is predicated on pressuring the quarterback and not giving up the big play. To that end, LSU has done well. The Tigers are ranked 15th in total defense, 24th in pass defense and 19th in pass efficiency defense. But the Tigers are just 35th against the run, not up to their recent standards, and rank 91st in sacks. Alabama, meanwhile, has one of the best, if not the best defense in the country. The Crimson Tide ranks 4th in total defense, 2nd against the run and 20th against the pass. Alabama is tied with Florida for the conference lead in sacks, and leads the league in tackles for loss. Alabama will utilize a 3-4 over-under scheme that allows the coaches to take a lot of chances with their blitz packages.

DEFENSIVE LINE
LSU came into the year replacing three starters on the defensive line, and the results have been pretty much exactly what you’d expect. LSU’s defensive ends, Rahim Alem and Lazarius Levingston, are undersized and that has hurt LSU’s ability to contain the rushing attacks from the outside. Alem in particular has underachieved. He has just 3 sacks on the year after coming into the season as one of the league’s most feared part-time pass rushers from a year ago. The increased responsibilities of being an every-down player have obviously hurt. Inside, Charles Alexander and Al Woods are top-flight tackles, but the depth situation isn’t what LSU is accustomed to. Drake Nevis is a bit on the small side, while Lavar Edwards has been forced to play in sometimes despite being a true end. Josh Downs adds depth. Tyler Edwards and Chancey Aghayere bolster the end positions. Alabama counters with one of the best lines in the business. Terrence Cody holds down the fort at nosetackle, while Lorenzo Washington, Brandon Deaderick, Luther Davis and Marcell Dareus rotate at the end slots. Josh Chapman and Kerry Murphy will back up Cody. LSU has good athletes and this will be the best line Alabama will face the rest of the way, save for a potential matchup with Florida, but Alabama is more experienced, deeper and has been clearly more effective. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS
LSU brings a lot of experience to the table in the form of Perry Riley, Kelvin Sheppard, Harry Coleman and top sub Jacob Cutrera, but each player has his shortcomings. Riley is probably the most complete player, but pure speed is an issue. Lateral mobility is a question for Cutrera. Coleman and Sheppard are fast enough, but Coleman lacks bulk. Still, all but Sheppard are seniors. Ryan Baker and Ace Foyil provide depth. Alabama counters with Rolando McClain and Nico Johnson in the middle, Cory Reamer outside and Eryk Anders at the Jack linebacker position. Johnson has come along nicely since taking over for the injured Dont'a Hightower, while Reamer has become a force against the run. McClain is simply the best linebacker in the SEC at any position. Anders’ ability to rush the passer off the corner has dealt fits to most of the Tide’s opponents so far. LSU probably has a better combination of experience and raw athletic ability now that Hightower is out, but again, the production numbers favor Alabama. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS
LSU has an embarrassment of depth and athletic ability. Safeties Brandon Taylor, Danny McCray and Chad Jones and cornerbacks Patrick Peterson, Chris Hawkins and Jai Eugene have all proven to be game-changers at one point or another in their careers. Throw in Karnell Hatcher and Ron Brooks for good measure and the Tigers don’t have a weakness. Small wonder why Phelon Jones decided to transfer to Alabama. The Crimson Tide, though, has actually bested LSU in pass defense stats, but that’s probably due to the Tide’s superior defensive line and pressure on the quarterback. Kareem Jackson, Marquis Johnson and Javier Arenas are an outstanding cornerback trio, while Mark Barron, Robby Green and Justin Woodall patrol the field at safety. Tyrone King Jr. and Ali Sharrief are also available at safety, with Dre Kirkpatrick and Chris Rogers providing depth at corner. LSU holds the depth advantage at safety, and a slight edge in overall talent at corner despite depth being a push. This is a close call, but the presence of Peterson – the league’s best corner – pushing this one the Tigers’ way. Advantage: LSU

SPECIAL TEAMS
It’s surprising that, even with Trindon Holliday onboard, LSU has struggled in the return game in 2009. The Tigers lead the league in punt returns and are 6th nationally in that stat, but kickoff returns have been a dismal 117th. Nothing like playing Alabama to improve those numbers, however, given that the Tide is atrocious on kickoff coverage. Alabama’s Javier Arenas helps Alabama rank 2nd in punt returns, and the Tide is 41st in kickoff returns, still nothing to write home about but better than LSU’s numbers. As for the kicking game, Alabama’s Leigh Tiffin is in the middle of a career year, going 20-of-23 (87.0%) so far on field goals, including 3-for-4 from beyond 40 yards. But LSU’s Josh Jasper is right on his heels, hitting 10 of 13 this year. Punting has been a different story altogether. Alabama’s P.J. Fitzgerald has had a solid year punting the ball, although he’s been ineffective at killing kicks inside the 20. LSU has worked three punters – Jasper, Derek Helton and Drew Alleman. Although their gross average has been under 40 yards, LSU is still better in net punting than Alabama – by a long shot, in fact – due to better rates of killing the ball inside the 20, as well as better punt coverage. Alabama probably holds the edge in terms of the kickers themselves, but everything else about this category points to LSU. Advantage: LSU

OVERALL

Alabama leads in four categories, as does LSU. But the deciding factor in this game will be up front, and in that regard, Alabama wins both OL-DL cross-matchups.

The key for Alabama in this game is to establish supremacy in the running game. Alabama has run the ball effectively in 2009, but not when it absolutely needed to – and that’s key, because Alabama’s passing game has been stuck in reverse for a month. Whether Alabama gets there on the shoulders of Mark Ingram, or by continuing to work the Wildcat formation, it doesn’t matter: What matters is that Alabama takes control of this game on the ground.

LSU figures to stack the box and force Greg McElroy to beat them over the top. Even with LSU’s fine defensive backs figured into the equation, if McElroy is throwing against one-on-one coverage all day, LSU can be beaten. It all depends on whether Alabama can establish something in the running game first that forces LSU to bring its safeties up to stop the run.

Defensively, Alabama can force Jordan Jefferson to make mistakes, or at least miss reads. The Tide defensive backs will have their hands full with the best starting receiver tandem they’ve seen this year.

Look for a low-scoring defensive struggle, but if the analysis of the OL-vs.-DL matchups are correct, Alabama should come out on top.

Alabama 16
LSU 13 ]]> TideFans.com Articles JessN http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/95626-lsu-preview-battle-sec-west-supremacy-comes-down-game.html http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/95625-sec-previews-predictions-week-10-a.html Mon, 02 Nov 2009 07:41:08 GMT SEC preview and predictions – Week 10
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-in-Chief
Nov. 2, 2009

Last week’s record: 4-3 (57.1%)
Season record: 53-15 (77.9%)

A rough week for the Predictions Dept. for sure, as South Carolina and Ole Miss both laid eggs in games they were favored to win. This week’s marquee matchup is the Alabama-LSU game, which will effectively decide the SEC West. South Carolina faces Arkansas in what figures to be the most intriguing game out of what’s left.

VANDERBILT at FLORIDA
The Commodores scored 31 points last week; unfortunately, they also gave up 56 at the same time as Georgia Tech romped over Vandy in the second half. This week, the assignment doesn’t get any easier. Florida is playing arguably its best football of the year. Vanderbilt has zero chance in this game unless the Gators lose 10 or more key players to injury leading up to and during the game. Otherwise, Florida ought to be able to start the second team and win by two touchdowns.
Florida 34
Vanderbilt 10

TENNESSEE TECH at GEORGIA
Finally, an opponent Georgia can’t lose to.
Georgia 52
Tennessee Tech 7

LOUISIANA STATE at ALABAMA
See our extended preview!

SOUTH CAROLINA at ARKANSAS
South Carolina’s defense should give it the edge in this game, but the offense has been so clumsy lately that we just can’t pick the Gamecocks. Arkansas has held the opposition to under 20 points only twice this year, however, and one of those opponents was Missouri State. The game might actually be a low-scoring affair thanks to the competitiveness of South Carolina’s secondary. But after a disappointing trip up to Knoxville last week, it’s hard to imagine that South Carolina will fare better after a long flight to the Ozarks.
Arkansas 24
South Carolina 14

EASTERN KENTUCKY at KENTUCKY
The Wildcats need this win and another next week against Vanderbilt to get bowl-eligible. Kentucky’s quarterback injury woes (and a sudden lack of rushing defense) finally came home to roost against Mississippi State, a game the Cats should have won but didn’t. Kentucky should win this one going away, however.
Kentucky 31
E. Kentucky 10

MEMPHIS at TENNESSEE
Memphis is playing horrible football in 2009, and Tennessee seems to have turned its season around. The Volunteers are still unsteady on offense, but Memphis’ defense is horrific and the Tigers don’t run the football. That’s a bad combination.
Tennessee 37
Memphis 14

FURMAN at AUBURN
Auburn’s upset of Ole Miss guarantees the Tigers of a bowl trip. A win over Furman would probably put the Tigers in the Liberty Bowl at worst and possibly the Chick-fil-A Bowl. Furman has a good offense but the Paladins’ defense is bad even by Division-IAA standards.
Auburn 51
Furman 21

NORTHERN ARIZONA at MISSISSIPPI
Who scheduled this?
Ole Miss 49
N. Arizona 14

IDLE: Mississippi State ]]> TideFans.com Articles JessN http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/95625-sec-previews-predictions-week-10-a.html http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/95399-off-week-top-my-head-notes-musings-behind-desk.html Wed, 28 Oct 2009 05:46:34 GMT 95400 Off (week) the top of my head: *Notes and musings from behind the...
Off (week) the top of my head: Notes and musings from behind the desk
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Oct. 28, 2009

Alabama might get an off-week this week, but I don’t.

The upcoming weekend will afford me to take a closer look at some other teams that I’ve yet to see either only on television, or videotape. And it might actually afford me the opportunity to reintroduce myself to my family.

It also affords me to offer up some notes on recruiting, the bowl picture and the coaching hot seat for next year.

Three straight No. 1 classes?
When Alabama signed the No. 1 recruiting class in the nation for the 2007-2008 cycle, the overwhelming opinion was that Alabama couldn’t turn the same trick in 2008-2009. Well, Alabama did.

Following that class, the general consensus was that there was no way Alabama could possibly be in contention for a third straight No. 1 class. Get ready to adjust your expectations again, fans.

Alabama currently has 19 players committed, a 20th one on the verge of committing (JUCO CB Mike Harris) and as many as 8 other players waiting in the wings to join the class. Alabama will have to make the numbers fit in some way, but that’s been done the last two years even though plenty of people (mostly rival fans) said it could not be done.

Of those final 8 or 9 players, at least two are grayshirts (Petey Smith and Anthony Orr) from the prior recruiting class, and then there is the issue of DE/DT Brandon Lewis and LB/WR DeVonta Bolton, who went JUCO after not qualifying two years ago. If Alabama adds those four players, plus Harris, it will be tough to shoehorn all the other interested prospects into the mix. Those players include WR/S Keenan Allen, CB John Fulton and LB C.J. Mosley. There are as many as 5-10 others Alabama is thought to be targeting.

In light of the SEC’s new 28-player cap on National Signing Day, what does that mean for Alabama? Some of the solutions are simple – planned grayshirts and/or walk-ons included in the signing class (and whether Alabama’s rivals want to believe it or not, the Tide is such a hot commodity right now that some prospects might choose to pay their own freight) simply won’t submit a letter of intent. The SEC rule governs letters of intent, not the number of bodies that eventually show up with the 105 in August.

Where Alabama’s class eventually ranks is hard to say, but if the Tide manages to close with even three-quarters of the players currently giving Alabama strong consideration, a third straight No. 1 ranking seems imminent. Much more importantly, Alabama will put that much more distance between itself and its chief rivals. Even if Tennessee and Auburn close with better classes than in years past (for Tennessee, it’s a near-certainty; Auburn certainly seems to be closing better as well), Alabama will continue to grow the margin.

In other words, it’s not going to be about whether any given year is “Alabama’s year.” The default setting will be that every year is “Alabama’s year” until something happens to change it. That’s a good place to be.

Mr. Richt, your hot water bottle is waiting…
Unless Rich Brooks finally calls it a career up in Kentucky, or one of the conference’s current coaches decides to seek employment elsewhere, it’s a good bet that there won’t be any turnover in the SEC coaching ranks before the 2010 season (and when Brooks finally does walk away, offensive coordinator Joker Phillips is already set to take the job).

But after 2010? That’s a different story.

Here’s a quick rundown of who could be in trouble then:

· Mark Richt, Georgia. Richt got off to a fast start largely on the strength of an incredible pool of talent he inherited from Jim Donnan. Richt’s best move was to get a handle on a festering discipline problem, something that Donnan never could seem to be bothered with enough to fix. But Richt’s easygoing, almost milquetoast style hasn’t been a good fit for the physical SEC, and despite continuing Donnan’s recruiting successes, Georgia has become almost soft. Georgia could theoretically miss the postseason in 2009, but probably won’t. Either way, Richt is safe for 2010, but may be forced to dismiss some of his longtime defensive assistants. And 2010 just became judgment day.

· Steve Spurrier, South Carolina. Spurrier has likely staved off all talk of his ouster after a 6-2 start in 2009, although South Carolina has no gimme games left and could easily finish 6-6. Were that to happen, Spurrier would likely be asked to do the impossible in 2010 (i.e., win the SEC East as Florida heads into a transition year), or perhaps be gently pushed into retirement. South Carolina believes it can compete with the big boys in the SEC, and is going to go that route whether Spurrier is a part of the discussion or not.

· Gene Chizik, Auburn. Even though Chizik will only be coaching his second season at Auburn in 2010, the fast start he enjoyed in 2009 followed by three losses and the prospect of a potential 6-6 season has some Tiger supporters getting antsy – especially with Nick Saban employing a scorched-earth policy in recruiting across the state. There are issues concerning Auburn’s coaching structure that have yet to shake themselves out – namely, Gus Malzahn as offensive coordinator and how his status as a rising star relates to Chizik, who was not considered a great coaching prospect when Auburn hired him. It’s too early to say what happens between now and this time next year, but Chizik’s tenure could be a short one if Auburn stumbles out of the gate next year or if Malzahn proves to be the coach who ought to wear the big headset.

· Lane Kiffin, Tennessee. Kiffin figures to get more time than Chizik based on the strength of his recruiting reputation and the presence of Monte Kiffin, who is one of the five or ten best defensive minds in the college game. But the 2010 Tennessee team may be the worst Kiffin will have. Depending on how Tennessee finishes up 2009 – UT will have to beat Memphis, Vanderbilt and Kentucky to get bowl-eligible – the 2010 season could be the third straight for the Vols without a trip to the postseason. Were that to happen, 2011 could get unbearable for Kiffin – especially if he were to keep shooting off his mouth in interviews.


And the job of the year so far goes to…
Just in case you wanted my take on ranking the SEC coaches, here’s how it stands right now.

1. (tie) Urban Meyer, Florida; and Nick Saban, Alabama: Meyer has two national titles, but inherited a talent load at UF. Saban has one national title and has built or rebuilt everywhere he’s been. The next man to win a championship gets No. 1 all to himself.

3. Rich Brooks, Kentucky. Brooks will likely never get the respect he deserves from Southern college football fans, simply because they weren’t familiar with his time at Oregon. Brooks built the Ducks from less than nothing and then handed off a healthy contender to Mike Bellotti. Will he do the same thing with Joker Phillips at Kentucky?

4. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina. He has a national title, but his Fun ‘N’ Gun offense has been figured out for all practical purposes. Still, the strength of his career resume keeps him near the top. But Brooks has run circles around him the last two or three years.

5. Bob Petrino, Arkansas. Offensive genius, but defensively, who knows what he thinks. We do know he’s a hard-liner who can recruit, so Arkansas is about to become a yearly factor in the SEC West, one way or another.

6. Bobby Johnson, Vanderbilt. He’s having a tough year in 2009, but let’s reflect for a moment – Johnson got Vandy to a bowl last year and won it. The last time that happened at Vanderbilt, this country had something called the Apollo Program.

7. Mark Richt, Georgia. If you want to be truthful about things, Richt should be someone’s offensive coordinator. He doesn’t appear to have the “it” factor that most successful coaches have, but he had enough early success at Georgia to avoid being labeled a total bust.

8. Houston Nutt, Ole Miss. Nutt is one of the most criminally overrated coaches in college football. His best years were probably at Boise State, where he built the program before handing it over to Dirk Koetter, thus starting the Legend of the Blue Turf. Since then, however, he has been better known as a master motivator who can’t avoid losing three or four games a year no matter the circumstances. Nutt’s primary failing is his recruiting ability, but he also out-thinks himself as an offensive coordinator.

9. Les Miles, LSU. If Miles wins a second national championship, he’ll have to go up this list. But he basically looks like another Larry Coker or Phil Fulmer, a decent coach who benefited mostly from recruiting, either his own or that of the previous coach. A telling test is to ask LSU fans whether – if they had to hire a new coach tomorrow – they would hire Miles or look elsewhere.

10. Dan Mullen, Mississippi State. I put him here only because his first season isn’t over, but he’s clearly performed the best of the three new coaches in the SEC. State was supposed to be terrible, but has been surprisingly competitive. MSU could feasibly get bowl-eligible, and no one thought that was possible in the preseason. If the Bulldogs go to a bowl game, Mullen should get some Coach of the Year votes.

11. (tie) Lane Kiffin, Tennessee; and Gene Chizik, Auburn. Tennessee is improving while Auburn is stagnant at the moment, so Kiffin would figure to have the edge, but neither guy has set the woods afire with his coaching acumen and both have made missteps. We’ll leave it at that until the season is done.

An early bowl look
It’s really too early to be thinking about this, but here’s a primer on the SEC bowl outlook.

Assuming Alabama and Florida both get to the SEC Championship Game undefeated, both will make BCS bowls. The winner would get the BCS Championship Game while the loser would get the Sugar Bowl. In fact, this scenario probably plays out even if the loser ends up a two-loss team (such as if LSU were to beat Alabama, get back to Atlanta for a rematch with the Gators and then lose again). There are other scenarios, too (a one-loss Alabama team sits at home while LSU goes to Atlanta via the tiebreaker), but just know that the SEC has about a 75 percent chance of getting two teams into the BCS.

Here’s an early projection:

BCS Championship Game: Alabama/Florida winner vs. Texas
This game has all sorts of possibilities coming up the other side. First, there is Texas, but the Longhorns have looked just as vulnerable as Alabama and Florida, and the Big 12 isn’t an easy trip. If Texas loses, that’s when the fun starts. If Iowa manages to beat Ohio State and Minnesota down the stretch, the Hawkeyes would be undefeated for the first time in school history and would likely get into this game. If Iowa were to lose, the Oregon-USC winner could land here, or so could TCU or even Boise State. And unless there’s a hidden rule preventing this scenario, consider this one: LSU beats Alabama, and Alabama wins out. Florida then beats LSU in the SEC Championship Game. Meanwhile, Oregon tops USC but doesn’t jump Alabama, while Boise State, Iowa, Cincinnati and TCU all lose. Could Florida face Alabama in this game rather than in Atlanta? Stay tuned.

Sugar Bowl: Alabama/Florida loser vs. Cincinnati
This one would be about as exciting for sponsors as last year’s Alabama-Utah debacle. It would surprise no one for Alabama to also lose this game if the Tide also lost to Florida in the SEC title match, due to the letdown factor.

Capital One Bowl: LSU vs. Ohio State
Ohio State hasn’t fared well against strong, fast SEC teams in recent years – and that’s certainly what LSU is.

Outback Bowl: South Carolina vs. Penn State
Spurrier vs. Joe Paterno? A nice matchup, but the Gamecocks won’t think so after they see the Nittany Lion defense. This would be a mismatch heavily in favor of the Big Ten.

Cotton Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma State
This game would provide a fairly intriguing matchup of SEC defense against one of the Big 12’s most potent offenses. Ole Miss has been tough in this particular game in recent years and a Rebel win would surprise no one.

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Georgia vs. Virginia Tech
The Hokies have already played here once in 2009, opening the season with Alabama. A return trip would probably prove to be more fruitful for the Hokies, who would be facing a Georgia team that is nowhere near as good as Alabama. But this is where the fun really starts, as Georgia is not guaranteed to even make a bowl in the first place.

Liberty Bowl: Arkansas vs. Houston
The Cougars have already beaten one SEC team this year (Mississippi State). Given the amount of points these two teams put up in most weeks, this could be the first two-day bowl game in Division-IA history.

Music City Bowl: Kentucky vs. Florida State
Guess which of these two teams is less likely to get bowl-eligible? Yep, Florida State. The Seminoles will be fortunate to get to six wins in 2009, but if they do, once in this game it’s hard to see how Kentucky would be able to keep pace with them.

Independence Bowl: Auburn vs. Iowa State
This is a little bit of a stretch given that Iowa State would have to upset either Colorado (the Buffaloes still have more athletes and more depth, despite their record) or Texas A&M to get into this game, but if they did, look for the Independence to go after Auburn in order to set up a rematch of Gene Chizik vs. Iowa State, which of course is coached by Auburn’s 2008 defensive coordinator, Paul Rhoads. Some Auburn supporters have toyed with the idea of declining an invitation to the Papajohns.com Bowl in Birmingham, but if the alternative is a matchup against Iowa State in Shreveport, Auburn might actually angle for the PJB in order to skip this nightmare.

Papajohns.com Bowl: Tennessee vs. Rutgers
If UT ends up here, yet another Tennessee head coach will have to run the Legion Field gauntlet. It’s hard to say who’d be favored in this game, but one thing’s for sure: No one would care either way. ]]> TideFans.com Articles JessN http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/95399-off-week-top-my-head-notes-musings-behind-desk.html http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/95329-sec-preview-predictions-week-9-a.html Tue, 27 Oct 2009 06:07:28 GMT SEC preview and predictions – Week 9
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-in-Chief
Oct. 27, 2009

Last week’s record: 6-0 (100.0%)
Season record: 49-12 (80.3%)

A spotless week gets the Predictions Dept. above the magic .800 number again in 2009. While Alabama sits idle this week, the conference’s slate of games is still attractive, including an intriguing matchup between Alabama’s last two opponents, South Carolina and Tennessee, and Florida’s annual showdown with Georgia.

SOUTH CAROLINA at TENNESSEE
As predicted, South Carolina had a tough time with Vanderbilt last week despite being heavily favored in the game. The Gamecocks’ morose performance could theoretically be the aftereffects of USC’s previous game, in which a physical Alabama team took the fight to the Cocks and beat South Carolina physically, 20-6. This week, South Carolina gets Tennessee, which is just coming off its matchup with Alabama – but Tennessee isn’t so battered and bruised. The Volunteers were the ones who controlled most of the pace against the Crimson Tide, so South Carolina won’t have the benefit Vanderbilt had last week. What the Gamecocks might have is an edge emotionally, as Tennessee is likely a little spent following its last-second loss in Tuscaloosa. The problem is, no one knows just how good Tennessee is or isn’t. The first unit has as much talent as anyone, but UT has no depth. South Carolina, meanwhile, is a patchwork outfit whose week-to-week success depends mostly on QB Stephen Garcia. If Tennessee can shut down Garcia, the Vols should win. Tennessee is not a good matchup for South Carolina, but the Gamecocks still have some legitimate goals left to play for. Tennessee is just trying to get bowl-eligible. This one should be close.
South Carolina 20
Tennessee 17

FLORIDA vs. GEORGIA (Jacksonville, Fla.)
Georgia is in a dangerous spot here, because it’s not out of the realm of possibility to think the Bulldogs could wind up ineligible for the postseason. A loss here to Florida would make Georgia 4-4, and with games left against Auburn, Kentucky and Georgia Tech, a second-half collapse could doom UGA. Florida won an ugly game against Mississippi State last week, but as long as Florida keeps Georgia WR A.J. Green in check, there should be no problem here. This game has been famous in recent years for ending the title hopes of one of the competitors, but these two teams are so imbalanced this year that it’s hard to conceive of a scenario in which Georgia could win. It would have to take an injury to Tim Tebow or some other disaster for it to happen.
Florida 34
Georgia 20

MISSISSIPPI STATE at KENTUCKY
This matchup of two teams that have had surprisingly nice seasons (at least in comparison to the results that were predicted for them) could be the springboard for a postseason run. Mississippi State has the harder road to travel. The Bulldogs get Alabama in three weeks after an off week, a game they are unlikely to win, but then close with Arkansas and Ole Miss, a pair of winnable games. Kentucky’s path is much easier: Beat State, and then a win over either Eastern Kentucky or Vanderbilt puts the Cats in a bowl. Mississippi State played gamely against Florida but came up just short. Kentucky had an easier game against Louisiana-Monroe, but might have lost middle linebacker Micah Johnson to a knee injury. That’s not good news as Kentucky gets set to face an offense that has been surprisingly effective at times in 2009.
Kentucky 23
Mississippi St. 17

GEORGIA TECH at VANDERBILT
The Commodores played gamely against South Carolina, but the Commodores just don’t have an offense of any kind. Meanwhile, even the Commodores’ better-than-expected defense isn’t likely to corral a Georgia Tech rushing attack that is really getting wound up as the season nears an end. This one could get ugly for Vandy.
Georgia Tech 31
Vanderbilt 7

EASTERN MICHIGAN at ARKANSAS
The Razorbacks get a much-needed break as they face a winless and almost completely inept Eastern Michigan squad. The Eagles have the worst rushing defense in the country and are second worst in total offense. Arkansas scoreboard maintenance workers were spotted adding a third digit to the home side of the board this morning.
Arkansas 60
E. Michigan 7

MISSISSIPPI at AUBURN
Auburn jetted out to five wins in a row, but has now lost the last three games. Ole Miss is starting to get things back together after Alabama dismantled them in Oxford a couple of weeks back. Auburn looked slow, as well as out of it mentally against LSU. Auburn is looking for a soft place to land at the moment, and Ole Miss isn’t it. This will be either the best or the second-best defensive line Auburn faces the remainder of the year (depending on what you think about Alabama’s in comparison to it), not to mention a secondary that has played over its head. Add in Ole Miss’ desire to get back into the discussion of being among the top 10-15 teams in the country, and what you have here is a recipe for disaster from a Tiger fan’s perspective. Auburn’s saving grace is that it can match Ole Miss at the skill positions on offense and on special teams, but that’s the end of it. Auburn needs to hope that Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt has one of his signature over-thought gameplanning moments that tend to pop up once or twice a year.
Ole Miss 30
Auburn 20

TULANE at LOUISIANA STATE
The highest in any category that Tulane ranks this season is 54th in pass defense, and then it’s a big step downward to the next number (73rd in passing offense, and there are only 5 categories out of 17 in which the Green Wave isn’t mired in the triple digits). Tulane’s two wins have come over McNeese State and a one-point escape against Army. To be blunt about it, LSU is going to kill them.
LSU 48
Tulane 7

IDLE: Alabama ]]> TideFans.com Articles JessN http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/95329-sec-preview-predictions-week-9-a.html http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/95159-tennessee-recap-vols-can-t-kick-over-mount-cody.html Sun, 25 Oct 2009 06:21:47 GMT Tennessee recap: Vols can’t kick it over Mount Cody
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Oct. 25, 2009

For a brief, two-second moment, Bryant-Denny Stadium had never been louder. That would have been the moment of Terrence Cody’s second blocked field goal of the day and the two seconds immediately following.

Alabama’s 12-10 victory over Tennessee in a game the Tide kept handing to its opponents was followed up with a much-needed off-week before the Tide faces LSU. The only people who need an off-week more than the Alabama players are the state’s collection of cardiologists.

While the South Carolina game looked closer than it was, this game suffered from no such illusions. Tennessee’s offensive line effectively handled Alabama’s pass rush, and Vol QB Jonathan Crompton played more than well enough to win the game. An untimely turnover by Alabama’s Mark Ingram almost did more than short-circuit a Heisman Trophy candidacy – it nearly gave Tennessee the game.

But that was before Terrence Cody fulfilled his mountainous nickname with an effort that should be called nothing short of heroic. Cody had already blocked a field goal in this game, but he blocked a second one as time expired and in the process, preserved Alabama’s undefeated season and kept the Tide’s national championship hopes alive.

It’s also a requirement here that we mention Alabama placekicker Leigh Tiffin, who hit four field goals on the day, including two from 50 yards, to provide all the scoring for the Crimson Tide. Tiffin’s career has been marked by inopportune inconsistency, but Saturday he was the real difference between a win and a loss. Cody just put the exclamation point on the end of Tiffin’s sentence.

Having said that, get ready for a dose of reality.

The Alabama team that has played the last two weeks is not good enough to win a national title without some significant changes on offense. As good as the Alabama defense is, gone are the days when one-dimensional teams won national championships. The postseason setup in current-day college football just doesn’t allow it.

Greg McElroy bounced back nicely after two tough weeks, but the running game, the run blocking and the receiver corps all had breakdowns at key moments in the game. As consistent as Alabama is on defense, the offense has become just as inconsistent.

One can argue that a missed pass interference penalty in the end zone on Julio Jones could have turned this game for good. Had Alabama found the end zone on any Tiffin’s four field goal drives, Alabama would probably have won this game long before the final snap. But Alabama could have solved that problem itself by not trying to throw the football twice against a gassed UT defense on short yardage inside the Volunteer 5-yard line.

There are many explanations for why Alabama is in an offensive rut, and fatigue could very well be the culprit. Alabama has now played four physical football teams in a row, two of them on the road. Alabama’s off-week couldn’t be coming at a better time.

Another factor in the offense’s struggles against Tennessee was the loss of starting tight end Colin Peek during pregame warm-ups. Peek suffered a strained MCL and may miss the LSU game. His loss would be huge. Michael Williams can replace Peek’s blocking, but with Peek out of the passing game, Alabama had to use a combination of Williams, Preston Dial and Brad Smelley. Taken together, those three players pale in comparison to the multi-faceted Peek.

Simply put, Alabama has to get more effective and less predictable. Head coach Nick Saban indicated that McElroy was playing with more confidence again, and the stats bore that evaluation out as to be correct. McElroy put up solid, if unspectacular numbers against Tennessee, and his final stat line was affected by several dropped passes. If McElroy’s confidence is no longer an issue – which it clearly was in games against Ole Miss and South Carolina – then a few tweaks to the playcalling ought to put Alabama in a better place offensively.

Alabama has a week to figure it all out. In the meantime, the team and its fans ought to bask in the glow of a third straight victory over rival Tennessee. Tennessee can keep Rocky Top; Alabama has Mount Cody. ]]> TideFans.com Articles JessN http://www.tidefans.com/forums/tidefans-com-articles/95159-tennessee-recap-vols-can-t-kick-over-mount-cody.html