SEC West Breakdown

BamaBacker · July 13th, 2004, 11:01 AM

On a slow morning, some thoughts on SEC West Division Race:

LSU - They've got to be the favorite for this year, but will not be as dominant as last year. The Tigers lose talented WR's and a couple of the best DL in the nation. Alas, they will reload.
They have UGA and UF on the road in consecutive weeks and must beat AU at home if they want to go to Atlanta again this year. I think they lose to UGA and UF, go 6-2 and go the the SECCG once again...barely.

Auburn - I watched the 2003 Iron Bowl again last night. This teams offense could be very good; they are as athletic as any offense in the SEC. The defensive front 7 will be porous this year, however, losing thier 3 best DL and thier 2 best LB's. I think AU loses against LSU, UGA (owns Jordan-Hare), and probably at Tennessee. Another tough game will be at Ole Miss. The Rebels get a week of before and after their showdown with Tubs, and I think they are really tough at home on thier new Astroplay surface. In SEC play, AU goes 5-3 and (for better or worse) Tubs calls the Mayflower truck.

Alabama - Our beloved Tide finally has postseason hopes again, and that will make a phenomenal difference this year. A much easier schedule doesn't hurt either. The Tide does lose its best offensive weapon in Shaud Williams, and loses Justin Smiley and D. Alexander from an already thin line.
On the defensive side, the loss of Antwan Odom will hurt the pass rush from the front 4.
Ole Mis at BD and Arkansas at Fayetteville will help decide our conference outlook early, but both should be winable. Trips to Baton Rouge and Knoxville and visits from the resurgent Gamecocks of SC and the still talented Auburn Tigers may prove too much for this team however. With a little more coaching than time allowed last year, I think the Tide finishes up 4-4 in conference -- a vast improvement over last season's outcome.

Ole Miss - The Reb's are very talented at the skill positions and will have a very strong, well coached OL again. A new QB without the ability to stretch the field makes this a slightly more pedestrian offense, though.
The D loses a lot of talent, but make no mistake this is a very well coached unit and can still do the job.
The Rebels will pick up wins against Vandy, Arkansas, and Miss St., but could also play the spoiler role with Auburn and Tennessee traveling to Oxford. My prediction is 3-5, but they are definately the wild card in the West.

Miss St. - The Bulldogs will be well coached this year, but have an uphill battle. NCAA sanctions will likely come out early in the season, and that can't help but to distract this team.
Trips to Vanderbilt (returning 21 starters), LSU, AL and Ole Miss will be tough. Kentucky and Arkansas will serve as doormats to welcome this new regime and don't count State out of the bowl picture. I expect 2-6 in conference, but the new coaching staff will have the Dawgs ready to fight.

Arkansas - The Nutt boys better have some Aces up thier sleeves this year. The Pigs lose practically everyone except QB Matt Jones, who will need those magic feet to run for his life behind a decimated OL. Good luck guys, but don't expect any breaks in the SEC. 0-8.

Briefly, I think UGA wins the SEC at 8-0 and contends for a National Championship with a lot of returning talent. Florida and Charlie Strong's defense finish second (7-1) and could even suprise Georgia in Jacksonville. South Carolina will be tough this year and will knock off UT in Columbia to clinch third (6-2). UT finishes a disappointing 5-3 with losses at UGA, SC and against UF. Vandy will be improved but still be Vandy (1-6), and UK will suffer through a tough conference schedule (0-8)

I'd love to see some other opinions on the West or other teams.
Roll Tide!!

UA90 · July 13th, 2004, 11:28 AM

No way Arkansas goes 0-8 in the SEC. MSU will be the cellar dweller in the SEC West. They are absolutely awful and Nutt and the Ark. program is in a whole lot better situation that Croom and the MSU team.

Alanbama27 · July 13th, 2004, 11:43 AM

I don't want to nit pick your comments to death, but how is it possible that "Another tough game will be at Ole Miss. The Rebels get a week of before and after their showdown with Tubs, and I think they are really tough at home on thier new Astroplay surface." meaning that Ole Miss can beat Auburn and then you have us losing to Auburn yet beating Ole Miss?

Also, how in the world can you say that South Carolina is "resurgent" when they've had two losing seasons in a row and Lou's job is very much in jeapordy right now?

Anyway, I'm not arguing with your numbers, just your rationalization.

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The Bus to our future is driven by Coach Mike Shula...Get on board or be left behind!

--Me

bamabake · July 13th, 2004, 11:52 AM

I don't think Ole Miss is the wild card at all. They had 15 5th year seniors on that team last year and Eli. All gone. My opinions on Alabama's challenges this year notwithstanding, I would say we are the wild card team. In spite of all the odds we face will it really be a shocker if we beat say, ten or barn? It wouldn't surprise me... we are'nt anybody..you know..

jdpas29 · July 13th, 2004, 12:10 PM

BAMA vs. UGA in SECCG

BamaBacker · July 13th, 2004, 02:05 PM

	Quote:
	<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by Alanbama27: ...meaning that Ole Miss can beat Auburn and then you have us losing to Auburn yet beating Ole Miss? Also, how in the world can you say that South Carolina is "resurgent" when they've had two losing seasons in a row and Lou's job is very much in jeapordy right now? </font>

I think with two weeks for nothing but Auburn preparation, the Ole Miss coaches will have their team ready. I also think the Ole Miss offense (great line and possibly a strong running game) matches up well with Auburn (possibly a weak front 7 and definitely inexperienced). Add that to the home field advantage and a crowd you know will be into the game and it seems to me you have a quite possible upset.

On SC, I know they have been down, but much like Ole Miss and Arkansas last year, they return a bunch of talented starters. I also realize Lou Holtz was embarrassed last year, which is all the more reason to expect him to come out fighting. He may be 95 years old, but he's still one of the best motivators in the history of college athletics.

Alanbama27 · July 13th, 2004, 02:23 PM

I certainly respect your opinion, but respectfully disagree! I don't care how many seniors a team is returning, those same guys couldn't win as juniors, so I don't see how one year is going to make that big of a difference. It's totally different when you're talking about Freshman to Sophomore's because that is normally a 3 year process with a redshirt included, but when you're talking junior to senior, it is only a true year.

Also, Ole Miss did have a fairly good running team last year, but the only reason it worked as well as it did was because the offensive fire power of Eli made the "D's" respect the pass first. That's all gone and teams "SHOULD" be able to tee off on the run first since they don't have a receiver or QB.

I guess we'll see soon enough and I only HOPE that my thoughts are a bit more accurate.

------------------
The Bus to our future is driven by Coach Mike Shula...Get on board or be left behind!

--Me

BamaBacker · July 13th, 2004, 02:29 PM

	Quote:
	<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by bamabake: ...I would say we are the wild card team. In spite of all the odds we face will it really be a shocker if we beat say, ten or barn? It wouldn't surprise me... we are'nt anybody..you know..</font>

I actually don't disagree with you at all. With a few good breaks we could certainly make some noise.

The linked artilce below says that most of the money on Bama in Las Vegas is on OVER 7 wins.

http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_ho.../24291930.html

BamaSkins · July 13th, 2004, 03:48 PM

hate to say it because it leaves Bama out, but the SEC West will be won on the 3rd week of play when LSU goes to the barn...the winner of that game wins the West...I'll be pulling for LSU, but I think the barn will win it...they have more talent that we realize, just ask 'em...

TIDETilliDie · July 13th, 2004, 04:29 PM

	Quote:
	<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by BamaSkins: hate to say it because it leaves Bama out, but the SEC West will be won on the 3rd week of play when LSU goes to the barn...the winner of that game wins the West...I'll be pulling for LSU, but I think the barn will win it...they have more talent that we realize, just ask 'em...</font>

LSU is loaded with the exception of naming a starter to replace Mauck(the talent is there-JRussell). This is tt were talking about here who is 30-34 against SEC opponents. He will find some way to screw this up and he'll be in Borges face by the 4th quarter trying to figure out how to pull it out

RTR

Alanbama27 · July 14th, 2004, 09:35 AM

I'm just wondering what Bamaskins has been smoking? The Barn won't even be in the hunt for the West much less the SEC.

I'm not predicting that Bama will win it, but we will have a better opportunity than the Barn to win it all this year because we don't have to play Florida or Georgia. The problem the barn has is that the overall SEC record plays a huge part in your ability to even win the west and the Barn WILL lose to LSU, FLORIDA, GEORGIA and will be in a true fight against TENNESSEE, OLE MISS and ALABAMA. They are dead meat IMHO!

As I've posted numerous times...don't forget that t-squared HAS NEVER won more than 9 games in any year or lost LESS than 4. That means that at best this year, they will go 8-4 and I'll lay 50-1 odds that all four of their losses are to SEC teams, meaning their out!

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The Bus to our future is driven by Coach Mike Shula...Get on board or be left behind!

--Me

TidefaninVA · July 16th, 2004, 07:27 AM

Ouch!!! Good point on the barn's SEC schedule Alan. lsu, florida, tenn, BAMA, ga and fl. That is brutal!!!!!!!!

Mooooooooooooooooooove it on out barn. Somebody's gonna get taken out behind the shed (or maybe the barn) for some good old fashioned butt whoopins!!

Roll Tide Roll!!!!!!!!!!!

trenda · July 16th, 2004, 09:53 AM

I think LSU and Auburn are definitely the frontrunners, with Ole Miss, AR, and MSU all looking up at the top two.

I think Bama's the wild card for sure. We still have some players on this team, even though depth is thin. Combine that with a favorable schedule and it's possible that the Tide can throw a wrench in it for either LSU or Auburn.

What we don't know yet is if last season was an abberation (are we really that down) or if the Tide is on its way to rising again.

I don't see Bama winning the West; but I do see us as having a chance to have a say in who does win it.

RTR