Question: Why would a 1 loss Bama be out of the NC picture?

RollTide1017 · October 26th, 2009, 12:25 PM

I have seen ESPN/SI/CBS/other sports blogs hint that if we had actually lost to Tenn. this week that our season would be over as far as a NC is concerned. I've even seen some post here hint about the same thing. Why can Florida win a NC with 1 loss, or LSU win one with a loss and USC, with 1 loss, still be in the NC talk but; a 1 loss Bama be excluded?

If we had lost on Saturday we would still make it to the SEC Championship if we win out. A win over Florida in the SECC would have us sitting at 12-1 with 3 wins over top 10 opponents (VT, LSU, FL). Just wondering why people would count us out with one loss but not FL, USC or any number of past 1 loss NC.

Or is it just the emotion of the weekend that people are reacting too.

TideEngineer08 · October 26th, 2009, 12:34 PM

We have gone too far to recover under normal circumstances.

USC and LSU lost early enough to regain ground in the polls. If we were to have lost Saturday, or if we lose in the future, we will likely not recover unless several other teams lose another game. I think this is true even if we win the SEC championship with one loss, but perhaps not. And my hope is we just keep on winning. Its the surest way to Pasadena.

By the way, I don't believe that losing early should be weighted any differently than losing late, but that is how the current system works.

BigEasyTider · October 26th, 2009, 12:41 PM

Well, we could recover, but we would need help.

If we lose sometime during the year, and both Texas and Iowa go undefeated, I don't care if we go to Atlanta and beat Florida 100-0... Texas v. Iowa will be in Pasadena and we'll be playing in another relatively meaningless BCS game.

If we can get one of those two to lose, however, we're home free. We can basically lose a game during the regular season, and still be BCS title game bound as long as we make it to Atlanta and beat Florida.

Still, though, look at Texas and Iowa's remaining schedules... what do you think the odds are that both win out? I say at least 50%.

Texas
Oklahoma State (6-1)
UCF (4-3)
Baylor (3-4)
Kansas (5-2)
Texas A&M (4-3)

Iowa
Indiana (4-4)
Northwestern (5-3)
Ohio State (6-2)
Minnesota (4-4)

We really need Oklahoma State to pull off the upset this weekend. I don't expect it will happen, mind you, but we need it badly.

HELENKELLERMRI · October 26th, 2009, 12:43 PM

If we lose to LSU it would put LSU in drivers seat to go to SEC champ game. If we lose after them I dont think we have time to move back up in polls. A loss here on out crushes our chances. Unless LSU loses another. We will not lose a game. This is our year and we will be even better next year!!! Its a great time to be a BAMA fan!!!! Roll Tide Roll!!!!!!

tidefan23 · October 26th, 2009, 12:47 PM

Something tells me that had we lost to UT would have also lost to LSU (and UF if we got that far). The next two weeks are the most critical of our season. Little to no improvement to the offense means that we will lose to LSU and UF. Call me cynical.

pcfixup · October 26th, 2009, 12:50 PM

	Quote:	BigEasyTider
	Well, we could recover, but we would need help. If we lose sometime during the year, and both Texas and Iowa go undefeated, I don't care if we go to Atlanta and beat Florida 100-0... Texas v. Iowa will be in Pasadena and we'll be playing in another relatively meaningless BCS game. If we can get one of those two to lose, however, we're home free. We can basically lose a game during the regular season, and still be BCS title game bound as long as we make it to Atlanta and beat Florida. Still, though, look at Texas and Iowa's remaining schedules... what do you think the odds are that both win out? I say at least 50%. Texas Oklahoma State (6-1) UCF (4-3) Baylor (3-4) Kansas (5-2) Texas A&M (4-3) Iowa Indiana (4-4) Northwestern (5-3) Ohio State (6-2) Minnesota (4-4) We really need Oklahoma State to pull off the upset this weekend. I don't expect it will happen, mind you, but we need it badly.

At least Iowa has to go to the horseshoe, they have a fair chance of losing to Ohio State. Don't forget Bosie State, TCU and Cincinnati: one of them could crash the party if the SEC champ has one loss and texas/iowa stumble.

TideEngineer08 · October 26th, 2009, 12:54 PM

The good news is, LSU will have a minefield to navigate after the Alabama game.

They must go to Ole Miss, and they have Arkansas at home. Ole Miss is an improving team and Arkansas always gives LSU fits no matter where they play.

Alabama will have a tough time in Starkville and Auburn, but should win both games unless disaster strikes (injuries, etc.). And, I really feel like the bye week will dramatically help us against LSU. The team we saw in the first half of the year is still there; they're just beat up physically and mentally. The rest should bring that team back.

We've slumped badly but we are still 8-0 and we have a team full of heart and pride and they will not go down lightly. I've still got a lot of confidence in our ability.

BubbaOne · October 26th, 2009, 01:46 PM

You can lose early and often and recover look at VaTech they have lost two games yet still in top 10 I guarantee if we had lost to UT we would have fallen below VaTech and that is just not right. Losing early or late should be equal but it is not. So for 'Bama to get to Pasadena now we will have to win out even in the SECCG In 2 weeks we better find an offense that can score because we have used all of our get out of jail free cards on UT

NBF_Bama_Cavalry · October 26th, 2009, 01:52 PM

The simple solution is to just not lose. I believe we win out and beat Florida in the SECCG.

CrimsonChuck · October 26th, 2009, 02:01 PM

I think it depends on the loss. If it was to UT Chattanooga, we would probably be out.

If it was to an even worse team than UT Chattanooga like Auburn, we would definitely be out.

I think that we would need Florida to run the table and be #1 when we play them in the SECCG. Then we would also need TCU, Texas, Cincy, and Iowa to lose also. Or at least three of those four teams.

RogueElephant · October 26th, 2009, 02:14 PM

	Quote:	NBF_Bama_Cavalry
	The simple solution is to just not lose. I believe we win out and beat Florida in the SECCG.

Very true

red55 · October 26th, 2009, 02:31 PM

A one-loss team from the SEC can certainly go to the BCS game. Happens all of the time. The trick is to be the best one-loss team. It could jump an undefeated team from the minor conferences, even the Big Ten, perhaps. A two-loss team can even go as long as the other contenders also have 2 losses. This is why it is important not to let a loss ruin the rest of a season. Keep winning and some other team's losses could put a team back into the picture.

The Strength of Schedule in the SEC is a major trump card in the BCS final countdown. The SECCG almost always involves one or two Top-5 teams and gives the winner a huge kick in the impartial computer rankings. Low SOS has kept USC out of the title game more than once.

Mystical · October 26th, 2009, 02:36 PM

	Quote:	pcfixup
	At least Iowa has to go to the horseshoe, they have a fair chance of losing to Ohio State. Don't forget Bosie State, TCU and Cincinnati: one of them could crash the party if the SEC champ has one loss and texas/iowa stumble.

Bosie no way they get in regardless. Cincinnati would be a long shot. I could possible see TCU because of the new found respect voters seem to have for their conference. I hope we don't lose but I believe a one loss SEC champ will still get in the big game. Iowa will lose in the shoe. Texas should remain undefeated.