News Article: LSU preview: Battle for SEC West supremacy comes down to this game [by JessN]

[JessN]

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LSU preview: Battle for SEC West supremacy comes down to this game
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Nov. 2, 2009

There’s no other way to put this, no way to soften the impact: This is as much a must-win game for Alabama as there has ever been.

If Alabama wants to win a national championship in 2009, this game must be won. If Alabama wants to hold over LSU’s head in recruiting the supremacy of Nick Saban versus Les Miles, this game must be won. If Alabama wants to avenge its 2008 loss to Florida in the SEC Championship Game, this game must be won.

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[OreBama]

Great read. I have looked forward to it for weeks.

I can honestly see us losing this game, but at the same time, I could see us winning comfortably. It depends on how much the boys learn during the bye week. It's been said a million times on this board, but McElroy will have to play well for us to win. LSU will stuff the run if that's all we can do. All things being equal talent wise, I expect Saban to outcoach Miles.

[GrayTide]

Good analysis Jess. I agree that this should be a real "white knuckler" from the opening whistle until the scoreboard reads 00:00. There are a lot of what ifs to consider, but IMO it will come down to just 2 players, McElroy and Jefferson. The outcome will be decided by which one has the better game, makes the fewest mistakes, and somehow makes at least one big play to seal the deal.

[CrimsonEyeshade]

	Quote:	GrayTide
	Good analysis Jess. I agree that this should be a real "white knuckler" from the opening whistle until the scoreboard reads 00:00. There are a lot of what ifs to consider, but IMO it will come down to just 2 players, McElroy and Jefferson. The outcome will be decided by which one has the better game, makes the fewest mistakes, and somehow makes at least one big play to seal the deal.

Agreed. I would add Hanks, Maze, Peek and Jones to the mix of key names. I'm not sure we can control the game solely on the run.

That being said, this one will be a war. Like the old coach used to say: if we do our part it will be a great, great game

[NYBamaFan]

Great read, Jess.

	Quote:
	It all depends on whether can establish something in the running game first that forces LSU to bring its safeties up to stop the run.

IMO, this will decide how much we win by, not if we win. I simply do not think that they can score enough to matter. As long as we do not turn the ball over in this game, we win. How much we win by will be determined by how much they have to play their safeties up to support the run defense.

If we establish the run early, their pass rush will be slowed, their safeties will play up, and we can take them apart down the field in the passing game.

If they slow our running game, we win in a 13-6 type game.

If they struggle to slow our running game, we kill them.

[trenda]

	Quote:	NYBamaFan
	Great read, Jess. IMO, this will decide how much we win by, not if we win. I simply do not think that they can score enough to matter. As long as we do not turn the ball over in this game, we win. How much we win by will be determined by how much they have to play their safeties up to support the run defense. If we establish the run early, their pass rush will be slowed, their safeties will play up, and we can take them apart down the field in the passing game. If they slow our running game, we win in a 13-6 type game. If they struggle to slow our running game, we kill them.

Agreed. If Ingram/Richardson break a long one or two and/or McElroy hits a deep ball, it may be 'Katy bar the door.' Otherwise, as long as we can limit big plays on defense and the offense can sustain some drives, I see us pulling this one out.

[LSU63]

Excellent write up. I agree, it's the line play that worries me the most.

[TIDEnGA]

I was actually nervous reading that. Oh boy, Sat. is just going to kill me if the game plays out the way many of you think it will. I really, really don't want to have to survive a close one, but if that's what it takes to win I'll contribute all my stress for the cause.

[TRU]

I think that this will be the closest game of the year, and the most important regular season game. Win, and the road to Atlanta (and perhaps the MNC) is open. Lose, and the season is essentially over.

I am very concerned by the offensive struggles, which I think come down to QB play. It seems to me that Ole Miss hit Gmac enough to get him rattled. This happens to a lot of rookie QBs (remember JPW dancing in the pocket for his entire junior year?), and it seems to take a pretty long time (i.e. a season) for them to regain their confidence enough to stand and deliver in the pocket. Gmac seems to sense deep down that the ball is a bomb and that every millisecond that he hangs on to it increases his chances of getting blindsided. So he has reverted to throwing to his first target, getting rid of the ball as soon as possible. He has stopped looking to other targets, something he did very well for the first four games, before he got pounded by Ole Miss. He will come around, but it will take time to gain confidence again. And I think that the LSU defense is unlikely to cut him any breaks in this regard. He is likely to get hit hard and often this weekend. And I don't think that getting hit will help him regain his confidence.

I look for the LSU defense to rattle Gmac and thus shut down the passing game, making the offense one dimensional. And I predict that the Tide will pretty much shut down the LSU offense in return. I think that we will be in for a defensive struggle that is decided by field position, big defensive plays and by a few lucky breaks for one side or the other. It is likely to be a real tossup - a nail biter.

[Crimson Speed]

	Quote:	TRU
	I look for the LSU defense to rattle Gmac and thus shut down the passing game, making the offense one dimensional. And I predict that the Tide will pretty much shut down the LSU offense in return. I think that we will be in for a defensive struggle that is decided by field position, big defensive plays and by a few lucky breaks for one side or the other. It is likely to be a real tossup - a nail biter.

Gmac looked great for the first few games, then things changed when we started playing SEC opposition. I agree with everything you have said about Bama's performance thus far. But, Gmac still has that special gift that has been missing in our QBs for several years. He has proven that he can scan the field and search for the open receiver. Why he is now struggling is somewhat of a mistery, but I have faith that the light will switch back on and he will have more great games before this season ends.

[TideWatcher]

Good analysis. But I think LSU has problems in this game. If Alabama can run LSU can't win. If they blitz, they have to hope Mcleroy misses the opportunities because they will be there. If they don't blitz, they won't get the pressure they need(and teams that can't get pressure on Alabama's QB cannot win). Of course Alabama is going to face their own difficulties with LSU talent, but I think the key matchups favor Alabama. If Alabama doesn't lose the turnover battle they win more comfortably than is expected.

[RogueElephant]

Thanks for the great read. This game really has me worried.

[TRU]

[I have faith that the light will switch back on and he will have more great games before this season ends.[/QUOTE]

I agree that the light will come back on. But I am afraid that it will not be on this weekend.