Link: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numbers

RTR91

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Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numbers

During the season, fans try to say which team is better because this team put up ____ of yards against that defense and vice versa. Phil Steele looked at the numbers from the 2012 season to see how each defense and offense did compared to its opponents.

Alabama had the #1 defense by holding its opponents to 163.88 yards less than their average. The offense was #21 by gaining 73.99 more yards than its opponents' average.

Here are the lists. Defense Offense
 

GreatDanish

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Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

I keep this same statistic up to date throughout the season, including these same numbers as percentages which, IMO, is the better metric. That, plus, the same stats except with regard to scoring offense and defense. Like most models, it begins to be particularly effective about halfway through the season.
These are the best predictive statistics I have found. This statistic exposed the "Texas #1 Rushing D" in 2009, but all people cared about was the raw "rushing defense" statistic.
 

Nolan

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Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

aTm way ahead on offense. I wonder if they'll be so prolific again next year.
 

Al A Bama

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Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

aTm way ahead on offense. I wonder if they'll be so prolific again next year.

With Johnny Football being in a strenuous ONLINE Strength and Conditioning Program, I'm not sure he will be physically up to doing what he did last year.
 

TexasTideFan

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Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

aTm way ahead on offense. I wonder if they'll be so prolific again next year.
Who knows? Johnny Online has got to be the most untouchable QB I have ever seen and on top of that, throws passes like darts. It was like he was wearing Teflon against OU. The dude just doesn't seem to take a clean hit. We didn't really hit him at all. LSU rattled him a couple of times and he seemed to lose his mojo late against them They will probably be prolific if they can get the same blocking from their O-line.
 

cbi1972

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Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

Who knows? Johnny Online has got to be the most untouchable QB I have ever seen and on top of that, throws passes like darts. It was like he was wearing Teflon against OU. The dude just doesn't seem to take a clean hit. We didn't really hit him at all. LSU rattled him a couple of times and he seemed to lose his mojo late against them They will probably be prolific if they can get the same blocking from their O-line.
That's a huge IF considering who they lost. Luke Joeckel could be the #1 pick.
 

uafan4life

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Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

Actually, those stats are a little shallow, in my opinion. Certainly better than raw numbers, yes, but not the best metric for that type of comparison.

A better comparison is not raw overall average versus raw overall average but rather a percentage average of individual game results versus overall average - meaning an average of what the unit (offense or defense) did against each opposing unit relative to what that unit averaged doing for the season expressed as a percentage of difference. Also, rather than just total yards, I'd rather see a matrix of total yards, total points, yards per play, yards per rush, yards per pass, passing efficiency, plays per point (or 7 points), and scoring drive percentage.

Not that I'm picky. :biggrin2:
 

BigBama76

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Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

During the season, fans try to say which team is better because this team put up ____ of yards against that defense and vice versa. Phil Steele looked at the numbers from the 2012 season to see how each defense and offense did compared to its opponents.

Alabama had the #1 defense by holding its opponents to 163.88 yards less than their average. The offense was #21 by gaining 73.99 more yards than its opponents' average.
As they say there are lies ____ lies and statistics. On the offensive side for us especially we had several games where most of the third and all of the fourth quarter we were just trying to run clock. How do you factor that in with just numbers?
 

G-VilleTider

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Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

Actually, those stats are a little shallow, in my opinion. Certainly better than raw numbers, yes, but not the best metric for that type of comparison.

A better comparison is not raw overall average versus raw overall average but rather a percentage average of individual game results versus overall average - meaning an average of what the unit (offense or defense) did against each opposing unit relative to what that unit averaged doing for the season expressed as a percentage of difference. Also, rather than just total yards, I'd rather see a matrix of total yards, total points, yards per play, yards per rush, yards per pass, passing efficiency, plays per point (or 7 points), and scoring drive percentage.

Not that I'm picky. :biggrin2:
There is actually a good iphone app that does that. Can't remember the name but you should be able to find it.
 

skrayper77

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Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

With Johnny Football being in a strenuous ONLINE Strength and Conditioning Program, I'm not sure he will be physically up to doing what he did last year.
... World of Warcraft?
 

TIDE-HSV

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Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

As they say there are lies ____ lies and statistics. On the offensive side for us especially we had several games where most of the third and all of the fourth quarter we were just trying to run clock. How do you factor that in with just numbers?
Exactly. And it didn't just affect team stats, it greatly hurt AJ's stats, because he was largely shut down in the last quarter of most of our games. It also affected the stats of our RBs, because, even though they were running more plays, we were more or less satisfied to go with 3-4 yards between tackle and get a first down. Of course, some of the teams were so beaten down by then, even those plays went for long gainers or TDs... :D
 

Bamatide44

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Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

As they say there are lies ____ lies and statistics. On the offensive side for us especially we had several games where most of the third and all of the fourth quarter we were just trying to run clock. How do you factor that in with just numbers?
Just add a TOP factor.

uafan4life's matrix would be best but just add the TOP. Not the easiest info to keep up with but gives the clearest data.
 

IH8Orange

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Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

Yardage is a nice talking point, but there's not a direct correlation between it and the effectiveness of a unit on a team. I'll take a team that gives up 600 yards a game as long as all those yards are between the 20s and I'll take an offense that only gains 200 yards a game if they're always scoring more than the opposition.

Tennessee is ranked above us in offensive performance, but against common opposition (Mississippi State, Missouri, and Georgia), we outgained UT's offense 486 yards to 476 yards. We did it on 10 less offensive plays per game, on average, so our yards per play is more than a yard greater (7.14 to 6.09) than theirs.

So how did UT get ranked higher than us? It was probably the 633 yards against Akron (giving up 450 yards per game, on average against their daunting MAC schedule) and the 713 yards against Troy (Sun Belt school, giving up 434 yards per game) that skewed their average enough to outrank us. Of course, you can't beat on the viles for running up the score, because they were only up against Akron by two TDs midway through the 4th quarter and needed an insurance TD pass from Tyler Bray with a little over 6 minutes left before going into protect the lead mode. Against Troy, they were TIED with the Trojans until the winning score with about a minute and a half left in the game. Troy subsequently drove to the Tennessee 40 and just couldn't connect on two pass attempts to take the game to OT.

So, UT is ranked above us because they had to fight tooth and nail to beat a couple of schools that are barely above FCS level and should have been playing fourth stringers by the third quarter. These statistics are about as useless as Roy Adams' liver. Is there anyone that truly believes if UT and Alabama played the same defense with all other things equal, that UT's offense would gain 50+ yards more than Alabama's offense? That's what these numbers imply and using the numbers against common opponents from last season, that's been shown to be empirically incorrect.
 

JPT4Bama

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Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

I don't trust stats. That's why I rarely use them unless it's to my advantage. :biggrin2:
 

Florida Tom

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Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

The only stat that really matters is the final score, we do ok on that one.
 

B1GTide

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Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

Using this model for points scored and points allowed demonstrated that aTm was your toughest opponent last year. In fact, it predicted a 30-30 outcome at that point in the season. It also demonstrated that Notre Dame was outclassed, predicting an Alabama win by 10. The only game that it really missed was LSU, where it had Alabama winning by 10+.
 

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