I think a QB will definitely transfer, if not two. However, the real question is 'how will it affect Bama'? How did Phillip Sims transfer affect us? Well it didn't, but that is only because we were lucky and AJ never had any injury issues.
Assuming someone like Bateman or Morris really grabs hold of the #2 spot this season, the other one might transfer. With guys like McCloud and Ely, it is hard to know where their head is. Maybe they are just glad to be there and don't mind always being a backup at Bama. Anyway, I could still see one of those two transferring also if they are really thinking they could be and should be a starter somewhere.
Looking at RBs, I can see a scenario where Fowler is only a FB/HB and Hart never gets back to 100%, and so a TF will compete with Drake for carries behind Heisman-candidate TJ Yeldon. Even in that case, a 2nd TF will likely play at some point in 2013 due to the inevitable nicks that our RBs will receive. I could see one TF transferring after the 2013 season if he has sort-of settled in at the #4 spot among the 4 TF. On the other hand, if Fowler and Hart get significant carries and there are no major injuries, you could see two of the TF get impatient and transfer.
Again, what effect will it have on us? In both cases (QB and RB), the transfer opens a scholarship to be used on the next hot-shot 5-star QB or RB who thinks they are next in line. What I love about it is the survival-of-the-fittest aspect we have. It certainly IS NOT a mistake to give out those schollies. It is often hit-or-miss with those guys. You never know who will be the real deal and be dependable and make the grades and stay out of trouble and stay focused. So what will happen is, the cream will rise to the top. Then if the others ALL transfer, so be it. Then we turn around and use those schollies to bring in a ton more HS talent looking for the next batch of cream.
Its good to be a Bama fan.