Bad News For People Who Hate Good News (economy added 243,000 jobs in January)

Re: Bad News For People Who Like Good News (economy added 243,000 jobs in January)

Your title makes no sense to this guy. I'm not always the brightest, so I might be missing it.

Re: Bad News For People Who Like Good News (economy added 243,000 jobs in January)

Yep. I said probably 6 months ago that things were getting better, just nobody wanted to believe it. Just like anything else, it eventually becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. Keep spreading the word.

Re: Bad News For People Who Like Good News (economy added 243,000 jobs in January)

Many of the November & December jobs were seasonal jobs that no longer exist, much like the adding of a ton of jobs back when the government hired a bajillion census workers (double checked, bajillion is the correct number).

While I'm happy to hear that jobs are being added, I still don't like that numbers are being faked by not counting people that are part-time or those that have completely given up on finding a job - and this is a mummer's farce that both the D'$ and the R'$ use.

I will appreciate it even more when I actually see some improvement locally and actually see something other than truck drivers and nurse positions being listed as available jobs. We've also seen several times before since this recession started where the mainstream media will trumpet jobs being added one month only to talk about jobs lost the next. I hope there is improvement regardless of the President, but I'm still skeptical.

Re: Bad News For People Who Like Good News (economy added 243,000 jobs in January)

Bama_Dawg said:

You know what, you're right.

It's supposed to be "Bad News For People Who Hate Good News." I was riffing off that Modest Mouse album but whiffed.

Maybe a mod can help us out.

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A great album, BTW.

Re: Bad News For People Who Like Good News (economy added 243,000 jobs in January)

Bama_Dawg said:

You know what, you're right.

It's supposed to be "Bad News For People Who Hate Good News." I was riffing off that Modest Mouse album but whiffed.

Maybe a mod can help us out.

Click to expand...

Just making sure I wasn't over analyzing the title and got myself confused.

Re: Bad News For People Who Like Good News (economy added 243,000 jobs in January)

MattinBama said:

Many of the November & December jobs were seasonal jobs that no longer exist, much like the adding of a ton of jobs back when the government hired a bajillion census workers (double checked, bajillion is the correct number).

While I'm happy to hear that jobs are being added, I still don't like that numbers are being faked by not counting people that are part-time or those that have completely given up on finding a job - and this is a mummer's farce that both the D'$ and the R'$ use.

I will appreciate it even more when I actually see some improvement locally and actually see something other than truck drivers and nurse positions being listed as available jobs. We've also seen several times before since this recession started where the mainstream media will trumpet jobs being added one month only to talk about jobs lost the next. I hope there is improvement regardless of the President, but I'm still skeptical.

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Only seasonal jobs i knew about around here were part time; so, you're saying, they counted them in November and December but did not count them in January? Not being a smart arse, just trying to understand what you are saying. I knew of no seasonal jobs before Thanksgiving and throughout the Holidays that were full time; I was trying to hire PT workers, and had plenty of applicants that had other part-time seasonal work (or had applied for it), but not one I talked to had applied for seasonal work that was "full time" (meaning 40 hrs/wk).

Re: Bad News For People Who Like Good News (economy added 243,000 jobs in January)

twofbyc said:

Only seasonal jobs i knew about around here were part time; so, you're saying, they counted them in November and December but did not count them in January? Not being a smart arse, just trying to understand what you are saying. I knew of no seasonal jobs before Thanksgiving and throughout the Holidays that were full time; I was trying to hire PT workers, and had plenty of applicants that had other part-time seasonal work (or had applied for it), but not one I talked to had applied for seasonal work that was "full time" (meaning 40 hrs/wk).

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Don't have any stats or any fancy links for people to ignore for that, but I know when both I & my wife used to work in retail they would hire full-time people pretty regular that time of year and would maybe keep on 1 out of 6. A lot of them are part-time workers, but there are plenty of full-time as well.

I do know that the jobless claims stat is impacted by the layoff of seasonal workers.

Actually I did find a fancy link from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

Not all of the wide range of job situations in the American economy fit neatly into a given category. For example, people are considered employed if they did any work at all for pay or profit during the survey week. This includes all part-time and temporary work, as well as regular full-time, year-round employment.

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Trying to verify if "jobs added" includes part-time seasonal workers beyond that link though.

Re: Bad News For People Who Like Good News (economy added 243,000 jobs in January)

MattinBama said:

Don't have any stats or any fancy links for people to ignore for that, but I know when both I & my wife used to work in retail they would hire full-time people pretty regular that time of year and would maybe keep on 1 out of 6. A lot of them are part-time workers, but there are plenty of full-time as well.

I do know that the jobless claims stat is impacted by the layoff of seasonal workers.

Actually I did find a fancy link from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

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Don't know how long ago that was, but it sure wasn't this year, at least not down here. There might have been some part-timers converted to full time after the Holidays, but many stores (especially big boxes) have gotten away from even that; it's all part time for some of them, all year.
So, in the second quote from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, what it's saying is that anyone working (basically) gets counted; so wouldn't it follow that if they lost those jobs, they would count somewhere else (like either unemployed or a minus to jobs created)?
I don't keep up with employment/unemployment numbers that much, because the unemployment numbers do not take into account those who have given up looking for work, for whatever reason. I'd bet there are a lot of those....

Re: Bad News For People Who Like Good News (economy added 243,000 jobs in January)

twofbyc said:

Don't know how long ago that was, but it sure wasn't this year, at least not down here. There might have been some part-timers converted to full time after the Holidays, but many stores (especially big boxes) have gotten away from even that; it's all part time for some of them, all year.
So, in the second quote from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, what it's saying is that anyone working (basically) gets counted; so wouldn't it follow that if they lost those jobs, they would count somewhere else (like either unemployed or a minus to jobs created)?
I don't keep up with employment/unemployment numbers that much, because the unemployment numbers do not take into account those who have given up looking for work, for whatever reason. I'd bet there are a lot of those....

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Not sure exactly and definitely not trying to come off like an expert on it, but I do remember them fudging the numbers during the Census and it has been a while since either my wife & I have been in retail.

That same link mentions that they have a seasonal formula that they factor in, but I still couldn't verify whether the actual "Jobs added to the economy" stat includes part-time workers or not. Apparently the employed workers does count them, and the jobless claims (unemployed) are counted when they are laid off.

The numbers are pretty far off from the reality of things because of the way they count things to make it look better.

http://www.jsonline.com/business/em...ate-dips-to-3-year-low-p6428rl-138651469.html

The official number of unemployed persons declined to 12.8 million in January - a figure that is more than double the total population of the state of Wisconsin.

And that doesn't even include another 2.8 million jobless Americans who are not counted in the unemployment statistics because they gave up looking for a job or are not trying to find one - which removes them from the unemployment tallies under a quirk of U.S. data collection. Nor do the figures include another 8.2 million who are under-employed, meaning they can only find part-time work but need full-time pay (5.6 million).

Alltold, the 23.8 million Americans who have no job or are under-employed is over four times the total population of Wisconsin. The government's broadest measure of unemployment and under-employment rate decreased slightly to 15.1% from 15.2% - but well below its peak of 17.2% in 2009.

The nation has about 5.6 million fewer jobs than it did when the recession began in late 2007.

Even so, the unemployment situation appears to have turned around since the summer, when many feared a relapse into renewed recession was imminent.

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Re: Bad News For People Who Like Good News (economy added 243,000 jobs in January)

I work for an Automation company, and the phone has been ringing off the hook for more automation lately. Say what you will about machines that do work instead of people, but from my view point, all the leading indicators are pointing to a healthy recovery coming. One example is a cardboard manufacturing company has ordered new machinery that hasn't ordered anything in a long time.

Re: Bad News For People Who Like Good News (economy added 243,000 jobs in January)

The cardboard industry is booming in other parts of the world as well; we have another thread about that.

Re: Bad News For People Who Like Good News (economy added 243,000 jobs in January)

Before you get too excited about the Booming Obama recovery you might want to look inside the numbers. Rick Santelli does a good breakdown of it here:

[video]http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000071275[/video]

People are dropping out of the workforce left and right which is the primary force drive the unemployment rate down lately. The figures released are like the budget "cuts" Congress talks about while not mentioning that they are merely cutting some of the increase to the baseline. Honest discussion of the numbers is needed here too. We should be doing MUCH BETTER.

For starters they NEVER get them right the first time so let's not start the orgy just yet. Fact is that you can twist numbers to make them say anything. Yes good news is good news but you know what? Stats & spin don't change the fact people are hurting & looking for work or no longer qualify for aid.

I'd rather fix the problem than the blame but you better also remember tons of folks who had jobs aren't in the same ballpark as what they were doing before the crash.

Bama_Dawg said:

Additionally, November and December's reports we're revised upward by 60,000 jobs.



http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/03/news/economy/jobs_report_unemployment/index.htm?iid=SF_E_Lead

At the moment, I don't care who's responsible. I'm just glad it's happening.

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From Andrew Sullivan's most recent column:

In running for re-election, Obama will be able to say he delivered on four core objectives: restoring economic growth in one year after inheriting the worst recession since the 1930s; ending the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq; delivering universal healthcare; and saving the now buoyant American auto sector. And Romney wants to run against Obama's record. Go for it, Mitt.

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Economic growth? Nope, it's anemic.
Delivering a massive money-hemorrhaging entitlement program? Yep, and not something that should be celebrated.
Bailouts for your cronies that violate the rule of law? Yep. Again, not something that should be celebrated.

Re: Bad News For People Who Like Good News (economy added 243,000 jobs in January)

bamacon said:

Before you get too excited about the Booming Obama recovery you might want to look inside the numbers. Rick Santelli does a good breakdown of it here:

[video]http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000071275[/video]

People are dropping out of the workforce left and right which is the primary force drive the unemployment rate down lately. The figures released are like the budget "cuts" Congress talks about while not mentioning that they are merely cutting some of the increase to the baseline. Honest discussion of the numbers is needed here too. We should be doing MUCH BETTER.

Click to expand...

I have a different information set (which only points out that I think anyone can make numbers say what they want, even Santelli; where does that 87 or 89 million number he tosses around come from? I believe it's an estimate. If what I heard last night from a guy from "Macroeconmics (something or other)", that statement is incorrect. The drop in unemployment numbers was corroborated by random sampling (phone polling) of households which backed up the data, indicating that more people were actually working.
And the "Much Better" comment - well, Bama should not have let the who's cross the 50 even once in the BCSCG; how's that for a half-empty glass?
There is no way you or anyone else can provide anything, other than your opinions, to prove that we COULD be doing much better. I saw it every day, people not spending money because they were (and still are) nervous about the economy, and where our country is going. Nothing anyone would have or could have done would have made that feeling go away any quicker than it is, and when it comes down to it, that's whats driving the economy: people don't spend, it tanks.
I just "dropped out" of the work force, but my place is being taken by someone else who was unemployed, so it's a wash, numbers-wise. I am not off the grid entirely, but will be soon as I am not eligible for unemployment (self-employed, and if you start a business and it fails, well, shame on you - you don't get unemployment benefits because the business failing was your fault. You should not have started it.)
No one that I know of, left or right (except on here) is talking about a "Booming Obama recovery"; this may or may not be something that will continue, no one knows, and there are quite a few who think it won't continue. Frankly, with the Europe situation and now the Iranian situation about to reach critical mass, I don't see it continuing.

Yep, things are great if you can't or don't want to do any analysis.

Bernanke, in a Thursday appearance before the House Budget Committee, said the nation's fiscal course is "clearly unsustainable" and long-term reforms need to be put into place.

"To achieve economic and financial stability, U.S. fiscal policy must be placed on a sustainable path," Bernanke said.

The Fed chief warned that ominous fiscal trends have moved from the far to the near horizon.

...

"There's going to be a massive fiscal contraction in 2013," he said.

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Bodhisattva said:

Yep, things are great if you can't or don't want to do any analysis.

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Yup. The economic forecast this year is supposed to be bleak and it is supposed to be the "good year" compared to 2014. They can't point to anything they have done that has helped job creators. What we can point to is that everything that is and will crush free enterprise is still in place and is set to kick in i.e. regulations, Obamacare, higher taxes.