Got my order from Upper Deck and finally went through the last box. I think I've figured out some of the print run numbers. Here are the best cards I got out of the bunch:
I've got to run; I'll post more details later.
Got my order from Upper Deck and finally went through the last box. I think I've figured out some of the print run numbers. Here are the best cards I got out of the bunch:
I've got to run; I'll post more details later.
I have yet to figure out why common sense and common courtesy are called common.
- Unknown
Tradition is always under construction.
- Nick Saban
Alex...did these come out of retail or hobby boxes?
Hobby boxes. I ordered a case.
The way the cards and sets are selling on Ebay, I figured I could expand my gold card / autograph card collection while selling enough to at least break even. I got 24 regular autograph cards in addition to these and 6 gold cards.
It looks like the hobby box breakdown is like this:
120 Base Set (1-100) Cards
68 or 69 Standard Insert Cards
2 Icons Cards
1 or 2 Autograph or Gold Cards
It appears that there averages about 1.5 regular Autograph or Gold cards per hobby box, with a Gold card (along with a regular autograph) averaging about 1 per every three hobby boxes. With 5000 gold cards that probably means 15,000 hobby boxes. At about 1.2 regular autographs per box that's an average of a little over 200 regular autographed cards per individual card. I would think the actual numbers vary, with some players/coaches signing, say, 150 while others signed 200 or 250 or something like that. The retail Blaster boxes average one signature for finding like every 2500 packs, so I don't think they will affect the overall number much.
With 2 Icons cards per hobby box and 21 Icons cards, that averages out to be a little over 1400 cards per Icons card. Assuming the Icons cards aren't as rare a the autographs in the Blaster boxes then that probably means there are about 1500 of each of the Icons cards. That's a relatively small number given the number of fans likely to collect these cards.
The hobby boxes will average, overall, a little over 1 full base set per box and a little over 1 full standard Inserts (100 cards - All Americans, All Time Alumni, & National Champions) set per 2 hobby boxes. Given the slight randomness in how the cars fall from box to box you would likely have to buy 3 hobby boxes to collect a full set of the Standard Inserts.
I have no idea how many Blaster boxes were made but, if I had to make a guess, I would say that there are probably averaging around 25,000 cards printed for each of the 100 base set cards, with some of those cards having more than others and probably around 15,000 of each if the standard Inserts cards printed with some of the cards having more than others.
All things considered, this looks like a pretty limited run and may very will sell out pretty quickly.
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I have yet to figure out why common sense and common courtesy are called common.
- Unknown
Tradition is always under construction.
- Nick Saban
Another interesting note:
In the 20 boxes in the case I ordered, there were 24 regular autographs, 4 serial numbered autographs, and 6 gold cards. That would put the serial numbered autographs at averaging around 1 per 5 hobby boxes. There was at least 1 autograph in each box. In every box that had a gold card there was an accompanying regular autograph. In 3 of the boxes with a serial numbered autograph it was the only autograph in the box. So - out of 20 boxes - 6 boxes had 1 gold card and 1 regular autograph card, 3 boxes had 1 serial numbered autograph card, 1 box had 1 serial numbered autograph card and 1 regular autograph card, 7 boxes had 2 regular autograph cards, and 3 boxes had 1 regular autograph card.
The three boxes that only had one regular autograph card contained the autographed cards of Ozzie Newsome (#26), Clyde Goode III (#56), and Darius Hanks (#85). I don't know if this means that these particular regular autograph cards are short prints (hope so!) or just that 1 out of every 6 boxes or so unluckily only has one regular autograph card that has nothing special about it.
The one box that had both a serial numbered autograph and a regular autograph contained the Dwight Stephenson National Champions autograph card and the regular Josh Chapman (#81) autograph card. I don't know if this means that the Josh Chapman regular autograph card is a long print (meaning more regular autograph card of this particular card than most of the others) or just that 1 out of every 20 boxes or so gets really lucky with both a serial numbered autograph card and a regular autograph card that has nothing special about it.
All of these guesstimates are based upon, one, the assumption that the 20 Hobby Box cases are fairly uniform and, two, the descriptions I've come across online of what people have found in the individual (or a few individual) boxes they've opened.
HOWEVER, there appears to be a problem in the math when factoring in the serial numbered autograph cards. Given the number of individual, serial numbered autograph cards and the number of each card printed that puts the total number of serial numbered autograph cards at 1,748 cards. Averaging 1 of those cards per every 5 Hobby boxes puts the total number of Hobby boxes made at around 9,000 boxes. The 15,000 box estimate I made in the previous post from the apparent frequency of the gold cards would have put the serial numbered cards at 1 per every 8 or 9 boxes - a much larger number than the 1 per 5 number I received in the case I purchased.
The Hobby Box packs state that the odds of receiving an autograph card are 1 per 24 packs while the odds of receiving an Icons card are 1 per 12 packs; gold cards are not mentioned. The Blaster Box packs state that the odds of receiving an autograph card are 1 per 2500 packs while the odds of receiving an Icons card are 1 per 48 packs; gold cards are not mentioned one these either. At 10 packs per Blaster Box, though, even a 10,000 Blaster Box run would not make a significant impact on the number of autograph cards.
A 12,000 Hobby Box run would would, theoretically, average out to around 1 gold card per 2.5 packs or so and 1 serial numbered autograph per every 7 packs or so, depending upon the number of gold cards spread out throughout the Blaster boxes.
A 10,000 Hobby Box run would would, theoretically, average out to around 1 gold card per 2 packs or so and 1 serial numbered autograph per every 6 packs or so, depending upon the number of gold cards spread out throughout the Blaster boxes.
An 8,000 Hobby Box run would would, theoretically, average out to around 1 gold card per 1.6 packs or so and 1 serial numbered autograph per every 5 packs or so, depending upon the number of gold cards spread out throughout the Blaster boxes.
This leaves me with basically only three possible conclusions:
1) There are a lot more gold cards spread throughout the Blaster Boxes than autograph cards.
2) The case I bought had significantly fewer gold cards than the average case.
3) The case I bought had significantly more serial numbered autograph cards than the average case.
Without talking to several other who have opened full case and paid attention to what was in that particular case I have no way of knowing which possible conclusion is more likely. Right now I'm leaning more towards the first option. This would
almost certainly mean, though, that the overall number of regular autograph cards was significantly less, say, averaging 150 or so per autograph card rather than 225 or so. This would make them worth more overall.
Regardless, it certainly looks like Upper Deck made significantly fewer total print runs of this set than they did the Texas and Oklahoma sets last year.
I have yet to figure out why common sense and common courtesy are called common.
- Unknown
Tradition is always under construction.
- Nick Saban
Oh, one more thing:
Have any of you guys seen any stores selling individual packs out of the Hobby Boxes? The boxes are designed so that they could be used as retail display boxes for selling individual packs, so I'm thinking some stores may try to sell some that way.
I noticed an interesting pattern to the order the packs were placed in the boxes in the case I purchased, in regards to the rare cards - Icons, gold, and autograph cards. I like to test it out.
I have yet to figure out why common sense and common courtesy are called common.
- Unknown
Tradition is always under construction.
- Nick Saban
I bit and bought 4 blaster cases -- so, I'll let y'all know how it goes. The blaster case went for about 1/3 of the price of the Hobby case, so I"m sure my haul won't be nearly as nice as UAFans, but we'll see.
Fingers crossed as I look through 80 boxes of cards
Over 6,000 cards!!!
I hate to break it to you but, assuming the stated odds on the blaster packs are indeed accurate, you'll be lucky to get 1 signature card and you'll probably end up with around 16 Icons cards. I'll be very interested in finding out how many gold cards you receive.
You will, however, end up with 80 of the National Championship pennants. There is one pennant for each National Championship year so, obviously, there are 14 different pennants. I'd like to get a full set of those pennants and I'm sure you'll end up with at least a couple or three full sets worth. I'll be more than happy to work out a trade with you for the pennants I need. I can fill out your Icons set (there are 21 different cards in that set) and throw in a couple or three autograph and/or gold cards - we can work out the details on that. Im4datide can vouch for me as far as a trade goes and Brett (BamaNation) can vouch for me personally. (And they both know where I live! )
Seriously, I'm fairly certain we can come up with a trade that would get me the pennants that I want and you some cards that you want and both end up better than if we each just went the ebay route. Hit me up on a PM once you get it all sorted out and we'll see what we can work out.
I have yet to figure out why common sense and common courtesy are called common.
- Unknown
Tradition is always under construction.
- Nick Saban
Sounds like a plan, UA fan. I'll let you know how it goes -- i should receive cards midweek i suppose and you'll hear from me probably by Friday.
Thanks and Roll Tide Roll
http://store.upperdeck.com/store/Tra...___78175?Args=
According to this, I should receive a regular autograph (no serial # or special) about 1:30 packs. Given there are 200 packs per blaster case, I should receive about 6 per case.
So, since I bought four blaster cases, I assume I'll get about 25 or so autograph cards, they just won't be as nice as the ones you got (the Bart Starr/Stabler combo) graph.
Beautiful card.... Did you notice Starr signed the card with #15 instead of his Bama #10?
Last edited by 37bamagreats55; October 20th, 2012 at 01:37 PM.
I've been sending the base set cards ttm to get signed.Got Eric Curry back Friday.I got 2sets from my 2 boxes so I decided to make a project out of one of them to get them signed by the living players and coaches.
I believe the 1 in 30 odds are for the overall production run (all cards printed - both Hobby and Blaster Boxes). The numbers I was giving - 1 in 24 for the Hobby Boxes and 1 in 2500 for the Blaster Boxes - came directly from the boxes/packs in the Hubby Boxes and Blaster Boxes themselves, respectively. The pack wrappers are different between the two, with the packs in the Hobby Boxes having the word "HOBBY" printed at the bottom below the "8 CARDS PER PACK" line, each having different odds printed on the back. I was a bit disappointed in those boxes because of that but I did like the pennants. I bought 5 Blaster Boxes, wanting to get some of the pennants, and didn't get a single autograph. I can't remember if I got any gold cards, though; I wasn't taking notes when I opened those.
I did notice the #15 on Starr's autograph. I figured he just put his pro number out of habit.
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Last edited by uafan4life; October 20th, 2012 at 09:57 PM.
I have yet to figure out why common sense and common courtesy are called common.
- Unknown
Tradition is always under construction.
- Nick Saban
A couple of comments. Many hobby boxes are made with the intention of their being sold as individual packs. The hobby has moved more towards buying boxes instead of packs, but I'd have to assume that they intend for the ability to sell individual packs in this case.
uafan seemed to seemed to allude to the way certain cards might be placed in the box. This is a problem that has occurred from time to time. Sometimes the packs are placed in such an order that for example, you know to look for the autograph on the fourth pack down on the right. This shouldn't happen, but it does and to be honest that is probably one thing that pushed people toward buying boxes. You don't want to risk paying retail for a pack and not knowing if someone already got the good stuff.
Also, I'm not sure of the policies they have in place now, but generally speaking there is a program that could replace damaged cards and a mail in program to get cards free of charge (well, minus postage). If you do get something back, it's a single card, but for example I've even received autographed cards that way (for example a Jason Kidd autograph). So, you might have some trouble with the math due to some cards not actually making their way into packs.
Alabama fans are paying way to much for these cards. I would love to get a complete set of all the auto's but I can get a Jordan auto cheaper than I can buy 5 to 6 common auto's from this set. I also think upper deck did a poor job of picking the players for the set.
They should have left out a few from the 90's and 00's and added a few from the last few years.
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