Alabama is favored by 24 points against Mississppi State

MSU's opponents record is something like 20-32 or there about. Also, don't remember them having even played a road game, perhaps at Kentucky and at Troy.
I think the game will be semi-close at the half, but the Tide will pull away in the second half and win 42-14.

Hoot30 said:

I grew up just across the state line from where you are and they talk like they have 'Bama's tradition.

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I know. My boss, an MSU fan, came in this morning and said "We are 60 minutes away from being the number one team in the country." Yeah, boss.....talk that smack.

TIDE-HSV said:

Their paranoia knows no bounds. When I visit their boards, crooked officiating is mentioned in virtually every thread...

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They haven't gotten a straight shake with the SEC since its inception

Here's a little statistical summary for you math nerds.

Alabama has scored, on average, 57.7% more than our opponents have averaged allowing (e.g., if a team's scoring defense is 25.57, then we have, on average this season, scored 25.57 * 1.577 = 40.32 pts).

We have held offenses to, on average, 30.4% of what they average scoring. So, a team whose scoring offense is 23.14, we have, on average this season, held them to 23.14 * .304 = 7.03 pts).

MSU's offense averages scoring 17% more than their opponents allow on average (ignoring the non-FCS schools).

MSU's defense is holding offenses to 64.5% of their average.

Utilizing those stats:
Alabama's offense averages 41 ppg. MSU, on average, holds opponents to 64.5% of that. Based on that, we would expect to score 26.44 points. Their defense averages allowing 16.4 ppg. We have, on average, scored 57.7% more than that. Based on that, we would expect to score 25.9 points. So, either way, we would be expected to score 26 points. Give some leeway for a fluke score or whatnot.
The same analysis yields 9.7 and 10.4 points for MSU - or about 10 points, give or take. So, the predicted score would be 26-10. There's not a true statistical margin of error, but I usually consider 7 points to be the margin of error for each team's score.

A lot of flaws with this analysis (one outlier can have a significant effect on the results given such a small sample, it doesn't take into account injuries or oddities about the games, it doesn't account for team trends like if a team is improving each week, etc.), but it is one of the better simple ways to evaluate a "predicted score." This analysis for the Tennessee game gave a predicted score of, I believe, 49-10.

BAMA - 42 state 10
Georgia 27 jorts/wife beater 21

I was more amazed by the reaction on the State forums. We haven't allowed over 14 points all season and haven't scored fewer than 33. While they have allowed 21+ in two troy and the Voluntears held to under 30 4 times by the likes of Kentucky, South Alabama, Troy, and Alburnt.

I think we cover 24 and probably easily. I really hate being so confident lmao

I'm feeling a 27-13 type game where we pull away in the second half with a final touchdown. We'll move the ball well in the first half but miss on some points due to stalled drives an missed field goals. We'll tighten the grip on MSU's offense and eventually wear their defense out to pull away late in the second half. I'm thinking a 13-7 halftime score, 20-10 at the start of the 4th, one more TD that puts it to bed in the fourth for 27-13.

I believe we will cover... MSU has been blessed by relatively easy schedule. I see another score similar to last week's.

I'll just be happy as long as the good-guys in Crimson come away with the W though.

happytidefan said:

I know. My boss, an MSU fan, came in this morning and said "We are 60 minutes away from being the number one team in the country." Yeah, boss.....talk that smack.

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My boss is a barn fan...and he's been strangely silent all season!:biggrin:

Crimson Cat said:

My boss is a barn fan...and he's been strangely silent all season!:biggrin:

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Guess there's a big difference in being 60 minutes from #1 and 60 minutes from being #1 worst.

FWIW, Bama is 4-3 ATS.

Bama Reb said:

I wouldn't want to be the team that walks onto the gridiron against the MSU Bulldogs thinking that all we have to do is show up and they're going to throw their hands up and roll over in self-imposed defeat. While we may be favored by 24, that doesn't mean much once the game gets started. MSU is a dangerous team with a perpetual chip on it's shoulder, especially when it comes to the Tide.
The very fact of them being undefeated puts the thought into their heads that they can beat us. If we're not absolutely ready for them, they could possibly do just that. If you remember, they've done that to us once before. Yes, to a lesser prepared team with a less intense coach, but the only thing that matters to them is they've done it before so they can do it again. That thought is still in their minds, and this is the SEC, so let's not take anything for granted.

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Miss St has beaten Tennessee, Auburn and Kentucky within conference... Add in Troy, Jackson St, South Alabama and Middle Tenn State out of conference...
...now THATS what I call not not being challenged! That has to be the weakest 7-0 record in the country.

...lets see what they do against us, and then decide how good they are.

I was surprised that the line was that high. I thought it would be around 17-18. But Vegas doesn't predict outcomes, they care about only one thing and that's getting the same amount of money bet on both teams so I imagine they felt that a lower line would get too much money placed on Bama.

TIDE-HSV said:

Since I remember beating them 9-7 in 1958 after losing to them 13-25 in 1957, well, yes...

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The one I remember best back then is the 13-12 Bama win in 1956 ending Bama's 20 game non-winning streak.

Edit: Bama was shutout NINE times in those 20 games. Scoring 13 was as big as winning.

TIDE-HSV said:

Generally speaking, however, something close to the actual predicted margin will accomplish that, so there's some redundancy. There are some fanbases which are more active bettors, and I'd bet that there are a lot more Bama bettors than MSU. For one thing, ours is much bigger and, I'd wager, a bit better-heeled. Those factors may have pushed the line up...

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..oh I assure you that you are correct. It's been noted by some Vegas casino's over the years that more money is bet on Bama than any other college team and I've had local bookies in Alabama tell me that they have clients who bet at least $500.00 a game on Bama no matter what the line is. I guess we bet like we play, we lay it all on the line lol...

Msu will play Shula ball, so to speak, and kill the clock to keep it close. Mullen gets a moral victory and jumps ship for a better job at the end of the year. EZ game