Trying to respond to multiple posts here with one post:
1) On the Arkansas job: The question regarding who can succeed at Arkansas is not tied to how well they recruit Arkansas. It's how well they recruit Louisiana, Texas (especially Texas) and the Memphis area of Tennessee. The state of Arkansas puts out about the same number of players annually as does the state of Tennessee. Tennessee's coach faces the same reality -- having to go outside the borders for talent. UT has more name recognition than Arkansas, but if you're at Arkansas and you can pull 7-10 really good Texas kids a year, you'll be fine.
2) Smart as some kind of coach-in-waiting: The only successful career assistant to ever make it at Alabama was Red Drew. And even he had prior head coaching experience at a smaller school, along with a one-year stint as head coach at Ole Miss. Shula, Whitworth and DuBose were all colossal busts. The problem with the Alabama job is that it's not just a head coaching job, it's a CEO job. Nick Saban could run any large company in the United States and it would succeed. Bryant, Wade and Thomas could have done the same and probably Gene Stallings as well. Can Kirby Smart? I don't know, and that's the problem -- nobody does until he finally gets the keys to a program. The real question is what kind of role Saban will play in picking his successor. If he retires on good terms at UA, I'm sure the school would listen closely to what he has to say, especially the current AD. If he elects to take a proactive role, he could recommend Smart, someone else on the staff or do what he did when he left LSU and allegedly recommend Houston Nutt. And the only thing I can say about that recommendation is, at least we know Saban is human, and isn't perfect. The point is, it's hard to say right now, and there is no plan in place to elevate Smart or anyone else. For that matter, God forbid Saban retired at the end of this year, I think Alabama would conduct a major search and would probably offer a big-name coach or two before turning to Smart or anyone else.
3) Where does Kirby end up next year: I'd say it's about 50/50 right now that he'd be back. I don't think Tennessee will go after him, because their fans are pushing for a proven name and they already have Saban proteges running the team and coordinating the defense, and it's not working out the way they want it to. I think there's an OK chance Arkansas and Auburn both talk to him, but I believe Arkansas covets Charlie Strong and Auburn will go after either Fisher or Petrino first. Also not sure that Smart would take the Auburn job at this point. Kentucky will end up with Dirk Koetter, I'm betting. The one thing I keep seeing people say is "Kirby needs to stay here rather than take a job at some podunk school..." No, he doesn't. Few people go from assistant to major, big-time head coaching job. Saban's first job was at Toledo. That's the kind of job Kirby is most likely to get.