Here's my thinking on it: no head coach worth his salt is going to want to touch this job with a 12-foot pole. For that matter, no successful head coach with any sort of job security is going to want to touch this job with even a 10-foot pole.
That leaves the barn with two realistic options:
- Hire as much of a "big" name coach as you can as quickly as possible, throwing the bank at them if you have two, or
- Hire a very unknown assistant coach or lower-level coordinator or head coach, trying to find a veritable diamond in the rough.
The only "big" names that could likely be enticed into taking the job would all have massive baggage of the moral, ethical, and/or NCAA-bad-list variety. Petrino? He has some major reputation problems - outside of his football prowess, of course - that could hinder his recruiting efforts. Tressel? Major, major NCAA issues there and, with the Barn's recent history, hiring him could be an open invitation for the NCAA to set up a satellite office right on the barn's campus. Who else?
As for hiring a well-known, up-and-coming coordinator or assistant coach - why would they take that job if they had any real prospects of getting any other quasi-high-profile job in the near future?
Like it or not - and regardless of whether it's true or not - the national perception is that the Barn quite literally bought their 2010 National Championship, and got lucky in more than a couple games to do it. With that one stellar season sandwiched by mediocrity, the national perception is that the Barn cannot be an elite-level team without cheating. And, last but not least, the national perception is about to become - if it hasn't already - that both the fans and the administration at the Barn have very unrealistic expectations and an itchy trigger finger.
If someone comes in with any sort of reputation problem, everyone that recruits against them will have an almost limitless stockpile of ammunition to use against them regarding the possibility of NCAA sanctions. Combine the recent, large number of incidents involving Barn players getting in trouble with the law with the article just released about the Barn hiring a security company to keep their players in line and any sensible parent could easily be given plenty to worry about regarding their child's safety if they chose to attend school there.
Having both a BCS Title and a Heisman Trophy winner in the past three or four years should be a great recruiting tool. At this point, though, no one is going to be able to sit there with a straight face if and when a Barn recruiter sits in their living room telling them that they'll be playing for a Championship - of any sort - within the next couple of years. Over the past four years, the Barn's recruiting tactics have changed to accommodate two completely different styles of play on offense. No matter what offense any new coach wants to run, they won't have a roster-full of players that can run it. With all the attrition that's gone on down there at the plains, they'll be lucky to have a third of a roster than can run it. Plus, with all of the positions that look to be open this off-season, the Barn will have a lot of competition for pretty much any coach they want to hire. And it's a competition at which they'll usually be at a disadvantage, even being in the SEC - or especially being in the SEC, depending upon how you look at it.
This is, quite simply, a no-win situation for the boogs. However, I think they've made the wrong choice if they are indeed firing Chizik. They've crashed and burned over the past two seasons like no team has ever crashed and burned before. And they're greedy, so they're firing Chizik to try to bring in a coach to turn things around and get results next year and/or in 2014.
What they should have done is to sacrifice next season, and maybe the one after that, while mandating that the Barn focus mostly on defense in recruiting and running as much of a ball-control offense as possible. They certainly wouldn't be competing for a shot at going to Atlanta during those two years but, hey, there's not much of a chance of that happening no matter who they bring in. What it would do is make the Barn more competitive overall - still losing a lot of games but losing close games when they do. And, given how bad this season was, there's no way to go but up - even for Chizik. Then, even during next season, they could start looking for the absolute best, most fitting, "big" name coach they can find and take their time in both the search for and the courtship of that coach. At that point, farther away from the BCS Title and the Cam scandal, the Barn's suddenly soiled reputation would have had some time to recover. They would also be able to sell an "improving" team to the new coach. Even though they may have only gotten 5 or 6 wins next season and 7 or 8 wins the season after that, that would still be visible, empirical improvement. Instead of having to sell a coach on resurrecting a pile of wreckage from the sea floor right now, they could be selling a coach on taking an already climbing team back to the mountain-top. If they were able to do that and bring in a top-flight coach for 2015, they could conceivably get a 10 win season in 2015 or 2016.
By firing Chizik, now, they will be painting themselves into a corner where their ceiling is going to be 8 or 9 wins for the next 5 or 6 years, at least.
They're making a big mistake. For some odd reason, though, I can't say that I'm sorry they're making it. :biggrin:
That leaves the barn with two realistic options:
- Hire as much of a "big" name coach as you can as quickly as possible, throwing the bank at them if you have two, or
- Hire a very unknown assistant coach or lower-level coordinator or head coach, trying to find a veritable diamond in the rough.
The only "big" names that could likely be enticed into taking the job would all have massive baggage of the moral, ethical, and/or NCAA-bad-list variety. Petrino? He has some major reputation problems - outside of his football prowess, of course - that could hinder his recruiting efforts. Tressel? Major, major NCAA issues there and, with the Barn's recent history, hiring him could be an open invitation for the NCAA to set up a satellite office right on the barn's campus. Who else?
As for hiring a well-known, up-and-coming coordinator or assistant coach - why would they take that job if they had any real prospects of getting any other quasi-high-profile job in the near future?
Like it or not - and regardless of whether it's true or not - the national perception is that the Barn quite literally bought their 2010 National Championship, and got lucky in more than a couple games to do it. With that one stellar season sandwiched by mediocrity, the national perception is that the Barn cannot be an elite-level team without cheating. And, last but not least, the national perception is about to become - if it hasn't already - that both the fans and the administration at the Barn have very unrealistic expectations and an itchy trigger finger.
If someone comes in with any sort of reputation problem, everyone that recruits against them will have an almost limitless stockpile of ammunition to use against them regarding the possibility of NCAA sanctions. Combine the recent, large number of incidents involving Barn players getting in trouble with the law with the article just released about the Barn hiring a security company to keep their players in line and any sensible parent could easily be given plenty to worry about regarding their child's safety if they chose to attend school there.
Having both a BCS Title and a Heisman Trophy winner in the past three or four years should be a great recruiting tool. At this point, though, no one is going to be able to sit there with a straight face if and when a Barn recruiter sits in their living room telling them that they'll be playing for a Championship - of any sort - within the next couple of years. Over the past four years, the Barn's recruiting tactics have changed to accommodate two completely different styles of play on offense. No matter what offense any new coach wants to run, they won't have a roster-full of players that can run it. With all the attrition that's gone on down there at the plains, they'll be lucky to have a third of a roster than can run it. Plus, with all of the positions that look to be open this off-season, the Barn will have a lot of competition for pretty much any coach they want to hire. And it's a competition at which they'll usually be at a disadvantage, even being in the SEC - or especially being in the SEC, depending upon how you look at it.
This is, quite simply, a no-win situation for the boogs. However, I think they've made the wrong choice if they are indeed firing Chizik. They've crashed and burned over the past two seasons like no team has ever crashed and burned before. And they're greedy, so they're firing Chizik to try to bring in a coach to turn things around and get results next year and/or in 2014.
What they should have done is to sacrifice next season, and maybe the one after that, while mandating that the Barn focus mostly on defense in recruiting and running as much of a ball-control offense as possible. They certainly wouldn't be competing for a shot at going to Atlanta during those two years but, hey, there's not much of a chance of that happening no matter who they bring in. What it would do is make the Barn more competitive overall - still losing a lot of games but losing close games when they do. And, given how bad this season was, there's no way to go but up - even for Chizik. Then, even during next season, they could start looking for the absolute best, most fitting, "big" name coach they can find and take their time in both the search for and the courtship of that coach. At that point, farther away from the BCS Title and the Cam scandal, the Barn's suddenly soiled reputation would have had some time to recover. They would also be able to sell an "improving" team to the new coach. Even though they may have only gotten 5 or 6 wins next season and 7 or 8 wins the season after that, that would still be visible, empirical improvement. Instead of having to sell a coach on resurrecting a pile of wreckage from the sea floor right now, they could be selling a coach on taking an already climbing team back to the mountain-top. If they were able to do that and bring in a top-flight coach for 2015, they could conceivably get a 10 win season in 2015 or 2016.
By firing Chizik, now, they will be painting themselves into a corner where their ceiling is going to be 8 or 9 wins for the next 5 or 6 years, at least.
They're making a big mistake. For some odd reason, though, I can't say that I'm sorry they're making it. :biggrin: