There may be a fringe element of Bama fans that find more satisfaction in an Auburn loss than in a Bama win (especially as spoiled as we have become under the last few years under Coach Saban), but I don't think that it occurs at anything near the degree that the corresponding feeling does within the Auburn fanbase. I think that it's quite understandable why a substantial portion of the Auburn fanbase would be more enthralled at seeing Bama lose than in wins by their own team over other opponents. It's a component of the spoiler mindset that many of them have developed based on Auburn's prevalent role within the history of football in this state.
I looked at the history of the Iron Bowl since it was forced into recommencement by strong-handed tactics of the Alabama legislature in 1948. There have been 64 games played since the series began again on 4 December, 1948. Bama has won 37 of these games and Auburn has won 27 of them. However, I looked at the records of the teams coming into the Iron Bowl and broke down the games into 7 categories:
These categories do not consider what happened after the Iron Bowl. I'm just looking at how the teams might have assumed the roles in these categories based on their records at the time of the game.
Into the first category (Auburn as major spoiler), I placed 19 past Iron Bowls (1961, 1962, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1989, 1992, 1999, 2008, 2009, 2011) and I believe that I can safely place the 2012 Iron Bowl into that category as well, bringing the total to 20 (out of 65 games, counting ahead to the upcoming one). Into the second category (Auburn as moderate spoiler), I placed 9 games (1949, 1950, 1952, 1967, 1974, 1991, 1993, 1998, 2005) and into the third category (Auburn as slight spoiler), I placed 4 games (1948, 1968, 1972, 2002). Thus, I considered that Auburn was playing some spoiler role in 33 of 65 (~51%) of the games.
I judged the teams to be fairly evenly matched according to their records in 9 games (1959, 1960, 1963, 1971, 1982, 1986, 1994, 1995, 1996). I know that records can be deceiving, but not having memories of some of those teams means that records are all I have to make those judgements. I assume that most people use the W/L records primarily to judge the effectiveness of teams at late points in the season.
Into the fifth category (Alabama playing the slight spoiler role), I placed the following 9 games (1951, 1954, 1969, 1970, 1985, 1987, 1988, 2003, 2007) and into the sixth (Alabama in the moderate spoiler role), I placed 4 games (1958, 1983, 1987, 1988). Into the category of Alabama playing a major spoiler role in the Iron Bowl, I put 9 games (1955, 1956, 1957, 1984, 1997, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2010). Thus, I considered that Alabama was playing the spoiler role in 22 games of 65 total (34%).
There's not a huge disparity in the total number of spoiler games for each team (33 for Auburn to 22 for Bama), but the disparity in major spoiler games is quite substantial (20 for Auburn to 9 for Bama) and the disparity between total major and moderate spoiler games is also substantial (29 for Auburn to 13 for Bama). So, almost 1 of 3 times that Alabama and Auburn play, Auburn is likely playing primarily to spoil our season and almost half the time, they are considered to be playing from a quantified and substantial position of disadvantage and in an obvious spoiler role. In about 1 of 3 games are they considered to be roughly equivalent to Alabama and only in about 1 of 5 games would they considered to be playing from the position of advantage.
So, it seems that almost half the time, the only benefit in winning the Iron Bowl (beyond just the satisfaction of winning a game) for the Auburn fanbase is knowing that they can end or greatly harm Alabama's chances at a championship or a bowl game. That seems like it would tend to produce a spoiler mentality within many of that group.
I looked at the history of the Iron Bowl since it was forced into recommencement by strong-handed tactics of the Alabama legislature in 1948. There have been 64 games played since the series began again on 4 December, 1948. Bama has won 37 of these games and Auburn has won 27 of them. However, I looked at the records of the teams coming into the Iron Bowl and broke down the games into 7 categories:
- Games in which Auburn played the role of major spoiler. These were games where basically Alabama had an opportunity at a championship or (in older games) a possible invitation to a bowl game riding on the outcome of the game while Auburn had no such opportunities and in many cases may have had a lackluster or losing record or were ineligible for post-season play due to NCAA sanctions. In these games, Auburn was looking to spoil or greatly affect Bama's post-season chances or chances at a championship. In many of these games, Bama held at least a 6 to 7 win differential on the W/L records.
- Games in which Auburn played a moderate role of spoiler. These were games basically which Bama had more to lose if the outcome wasn't in their favor, and Auburn really had nothing to lose (no hopes for championships, but perhaps lower-tier bowls in later games). In many of these games, Bama had at least a 4 to 5 win differential in W/L records coming into the game.
- Games in which Auburn played a very slight spoiler role. These were games where Bama had more riding on the outcome of the game, but it wouldn't be shocking if Auburn won the game. In many of these games, Bama had at least a 2 to 3 win differential on the W/L record coming into the game.
- Games that were fairly evenly matched based on records coming into the game. These were games where the W/L records were almost identical coming into the games.
- Games in which Alabama played a very slight spoiler role. Same definition as for the slight spoiler role for Auburn, but just with roles reversed.
- Games in which Alabama played a moderate spoiler role.
- Games in which Alabama played a major spoiler role.
These categories do not consider what happened after the Iron Bowl. I'm just looking at how the teams might have assumed the roles in these categories based on their records at the time of the game.
Into the first category (Auburn as major spoiler), I placed 19 past Iron Bowls (1961, 1962, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1989, 1992, 1999, 2008, 2009, 2011) and I believe that I can safely place the 2012 Iron Bowl into that category as well, bringing the total to 20 (out of 65 games, counting ahead to the upcoming one). Into the second category (Auburn as moderate spoiler), I placed 9 games (1949, 1950, 1952, 1967, 1974, 1991, 1993, 1998, 2005) and into the third category (Auburn as slight spoiler), I placed 4 games (1948, 1968, 1972, 2002). Thus, I considered that Auburn was playing some spoiler role in 33 of 65 (~51%) of the games.
I judged the teams to be fairly evenly matched according to their records in 9 games (1959, 1960, 1963, 1971, 1982, 1986, 1994, 1995, 1996). I know that records can be deceiving, but not having memories of some of those teams means that records are all I have to make those judgements. I assume that most people use the W/L records primarily to judge the effectiveness of teams at late points in the season.
Into the fifth category (Alabama playing the slight spoiler role), I placed the following 9 games (1951, 1954, 1969, 1970, 1985, 1987, 1988, 2003, 2007) and into the sixth (Alabama in the moderate spoiler role), I placed 4 games (1958, 1983, 1987, 1988). Into the category of Alabama playing a major spoiler role in the Iron Bowl, I put 9 games (1955, 1956, 1957, 1984, 1997, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2010). Thus, I considered that Alabama was playing the spoiler role in 22 games of 65 total (34%).
There's not a huge disparity in the total number of spoiler games for each team (33 for Auburn to 22 for Bama), but the disparity in major spoiler games is quite substantial (20 for Auburn to 9 for Bama) and the disparity between total major and moderate spoiler games is also substantial (29 for Auburn to 13 for Bama). So, almost 1 of 3 times that Alabama and Auburn play, Auburn is likely playing primarily to spoil our season and almost half the time, they are considered to be playing from a quantified and substantial position of disadvantage and in an obvious spoiler role. In about 1 of 3 games are they considered to be roughly equivalent to Alabama and only in about 1 of 5 games would they considered to be playing from the position of advantage.
So, it seems that almost half the time, the only benefit in winning the Iron Bowl (beyond just the satisfaction of winning a game) for the Auburn fanbase is knowing that they can end or greatly harm Alabama's chances at a championship or a bowl game. That seems like it would tend to produce a spoiler mentality within many of that group.
