It's important to remember that Alabama still has a lot on the line. A SEC championship, a BCS bowl, and a win over Auburn. Any year those three things happen is a good one, and only the most spoiled Alabama fans would not admit that.
Alabama is not in bad shape, but it's not good either. Had Pitt done a tiny bit better job of setting up their field goal (I was anxiously hoping they'd hit it), Alabama would be sitting at third right now in the BCS. Then, they'd just have to hope Texas trips up Kansas St., or Oregon loses one of three tough contests. I'd bet on that, but the two out of three losing thing is still not in their favor.
There is the outside chance of course, that no one loses, or only one does and Alabama somehow muscles their way in. I do see some momentum building, but I don't think it happens without a lot of help. If Alabama does not lose another game, some selectors will pick them. I can say that, but it likely won't be AP or BCS, so it won't matter.
Alabama has two things going for them, which is a potential protest vote from the AP. However, now that they know the BCS is going to change, I think they are less likely to do that, although they might just feel like being contrary. The other is the belief in the superiority of the SEC. A lot comes down to how things play out. If the the SEC beats Clemson, Florida St., and Georgia Tech, they'll have made a powerful statement that will also work its way into the computers. If Alabama has the blowouts they should have against Western Carolina, and Auburn, it will remind people what this team is capable of. Voters like offense, so if Alabama can put up 40 or 50 each game, while holding the other teams to single digits it will leave the right impression.
This would all set up the Alabama vs. Georgia matchup. #4 vs. #5, but it would carry more weight than that. It would be a huge game for the computers, and for the voters. It would have the logic of the SEC deserving a place in the championship game behind it. If Alabama has a powerful showing there, they would get some #1 votes.
Assuming Alabama can't sneak into the BCSCG (best chance is probably finding a way past Notre Dame and would be best aided by an Oregon loss), the best case scenario is to play Notre Dame. If things have gone well up until that point, Alabama might already have a few #1 votes, and Notre Dame might have one or two. But, the key is how the other bowls play out. If Texas A&M and LSU win their bowl games, it lends a lot to a pro Alabama argument. Likewise, if Alabama beats Notre Dame by more than the BCS championship game victor, some AP voters would vote for Alabama instead. It's not very likely that more do that, than would vote for Oregon, but if Oregon loses a close game, the vote could end up fairly close as well between Alabama and Kansas St.