Alabama's Chances To Play For The BCSNCG

bamacon

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There is meaningful hope that Stanford will beat Oregon, and also that TX will beat Kansas State. Alabama just needs to regroup and lay some wood on Auburn and Georgia. If we take care of the games within our control, the worst that can happen is that we end up beating Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl.
No, getting to play ND would be the best case scenario. There is almost no chance the Rose wouldn't take them as their at-large replacement for Oregon.
 

Nolan

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Bama isn't winning a title this year or the next. Lets just hope we don't somehow get matched up with Oregon in Miami, that would be a mismatch in the Ducks favor.
We'll see about that, pal.
 

KrAzY3

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It's important to remember that Alabama still has a lot on the line. A SEC championship, a BCS bowl, and a win over Auburn. Any year those three things happen is a good one, and only the most spoiled Alabama fans would not admit that.

Alabama is not in bad shape, but it's not good either. Had Pitt done a tiny bit better job of setting up their field goal (I was anxiously hoping they'd hit it), Alabama would be sitting at third right now in the BCS. Then, they'd just have to hope Texas trips up Kansas St., or Oregon loses one of three tough contests. I'd bet on that, but the two out of three losing thing is still not in their favor.

There is the outside chance of course, that no one loses, or only one does and Alabama somehow muscles their way in. I do see some momentum building, but I don't think it happens without a lot of help. If Alabama does not lose another game, some selectors will pick them. I can say that, but it likely won't be AP or BCS, so it won't matter.

Alabama has two things going for them, which is a potential protest vote from the AP. However, now that they know the BCS is going to change, I think they are less likely to do that, although they might just feel like being contrary. The other is the belief in the superiority of the SEC. A lot comes down to how things play out. If the the SEC beats Clemson, Florida St., and Georgia Tech, they'll have made a powerful statement that will also work its way into the computers. If Alabama has the blowouts they should have against Western Carolina, and Auburn, it will remind people what this team is capable of. Voters like offense, so if Alabama can put up 40 or 50 each game, while holding the other teams to single digits it will leave the right impression.

This would all set up the Alabama vs. Georgia matchup. #4 vs. #5, but it would carry more weight than that. It would be a huge game for the computers, and for the voters. It would have the logic of the SEC deserving a place in the championship game behind it. If Alabama has a powerful showing there, they would get some #1 votes.

Assuming Alabama can't sneak into the BCSCG (best chance is probably finding a way past Notre Dame and would be best aided by an Oregon loss), the best case scenario is to play Notre Dame. If things have gone well up until that point, Alabama might already have a few #1 votes, and Notre Dame might have one or two. But, the key is how the other bowls play out. If Texas A&M and LSU win their bowl games, it lends a lot to a pro Alabama argument. Likewise, if Alabama beats Notre Dame by more than the BCS championship game victor, some AP voters would vote for Alabama instead. It's not very likely that more do that, than would vote for Oregon, but if Oregon loses a close game, the vote could end up fairly close as well between Alabama and Kansas St.
 

JIB

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If Bama was lucky enough to find its way to Miami against Kansas State or Notre Dame it would be an easy W. After seeing how our secondary has played the past two weeks I have no confidence Bama could beat Oregon. I don't see Oregon losing to any Pac12 team this year so it's moot anyway.

Next year Bama will have some real issues defensively. We lose CJ, Dee, Nico, and Jesse among others. Huge losses. Bama has to go to A&M and plays LSU as usual. It will be a tough year. I don't see Bama contending again until the playoff begins.

I thought coming into this year that 10-2 was the probable outcome. 11-1 with and SEC title is pretty good, I'll take it.
 

Florida Tom

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I said we needed to win out & Beat GA big & you would think I was rooting for ND, that is was this article says.

First we do not control anything except for an automatic out if we do not win out.

I really think there is a Better shot this year than last on the 3 not winning out.

BUT we are NOT the only one loss team, Voters will be hard pressed to put someone other than Bama Unless we clearly show we belong there!

Winning out, & beating GA by one point does not help our case.
 

KrAzY3

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BUT we are NOT the only one loss team, Voters will be hard pressed to put someone other than Bama Unless we clearly show we belong there!

Winning out, & beating GA by one point does not help our case.
Make no mistake, if Alabama wins out they will be the top one loss team. That is not in doubt. Alabama's place in the polls, and their rise in SoS insures that. Being SEC champ means too much, and beating the next top 1 loss would make it absolutely rock solid. If Alabama wins out, and Georgia doesn't lose before the SECCG, there is absolutely no question that Alabama will be the top one loss team. They don't have to blow out Georgia to do that, just win. However, to jump and undefeated team? Yeah, they'd have to do more than win by a single point.

It hurts a tiny bit that Georgia beat Florida though. If Alabama was playing an undefeated Florida, it would have potentially really given them a big push. But, I don't see it mattering. Alabama likely doesn't jump an undefeated and no one loss team is going to jump an SEC champ Alabama.
 

Florida Tom

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Make no mistake, if Alabama wins out they will be the top one loss team. That is not in doubt. Alabama's place in the polls, and their rise in SoS insures that. Being SEC champ means too much, and beating the next top 1 loss would make it absolutely rock solid. If Alabama wins out, and Georgia doesn't lose before the SECCG, there is absolutely no question that Alabama will be the top one loss team. They don't have to blow out Georgia to do that, just win. However, to jump and undefeated team? Yeah, they'd have to do more than win by a single point.

It hurts a tiny bit that Georgia beat Florida though. If Alabama was playing an undefeated Florida, it would have potentially really given them a big push. But, I don't see it mattering. Alabama likely doesn't jump an undefeated and no one loss team is going to jump an SEC champ Alabama.
In short what you are saying is Go USC Trojans!

Those words did not taste good coming out but hey, gotta do why you have to do.

I think the only thing I disagree with most on here if that I really think the GA score will matter. I don't think we will ever jump a no loss team no matter what. Our control ended Saturday night, we now need help.
 

JIB

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You must not have been with us this time last year....
I was around. After the LSU loss last year it was immediately possible for a rematch.

Like 2011 Bama has fallen to #4 behind three undefeated teams. However, in 2011 Oklahoma State still had Texas Tech, Iowa State and Oklahoma on their schedule. Many folks thought OSU could lose to either Tech or Oklahoma. Stanford had Oregon and that was expected to be a blowout, and it was.

This time you have 3 teams ahead of us and only Notre Dame has a very good shot at losing.

The other difference is that the 2011 was a truly great team. The 2012 team is not. It's a good team, but the defense is not nearly as talented as 2011 (or 2010 or 2009 or even 2008).
 

sanjosecrimson

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This time you have 3 teams ahead of us and only Notre Dame has a very good shot at losing.
Oregon held off a tenacious USC team and still allowed over 50 points in their 1st meeting.
if USC beats UCLA this Saturday, the rematch will favored the trojans. here's why:

1. the Ducks injured laden defense will be become more problematic as the game nears.

2. defeating the same team 2x is very difficult, esp. against a team that allowed the most points scored in its storied program. redemption will be a factor for the men of Troy. just ask LSU how it work out in the BCSNCG.

3. USC can save their disappointing season with the 1st Pac 12 Championship. USC has lots of pride and would love to be the 1st team in claim that title in a conference they believe they owned before the upstart Ducks took away their glory.
 

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