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  1. #14
    BamaNation Second Team TahoeTider's Avatar
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    Re: Stepping out on a limb --- I'm predicting Bama in the BCS CG, more...

    I am grateful to all of you who are outlining scenarios that create a 2nd chance for us to get to Miami. Last year, before I knew about TideFans, I was completely miserable after our loss, and this was an extended misery until it was clear we were going to get another opportunity to win it all. This year, I feel a lot more informed and, more importantly, hopeful. RTR!

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  3. #15
    BamaNation All-SEC RammerJammer15's Avatar
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    Re: Stepping out on a limb --- I'm predicting Bama in the BCS CG, more...

    This has me thinking of not Bama last year, but LSU in 2007. LSU thought it was all over in late '07 when they lost to unranked Arkansas. But with a win over Tennessee, and other crazy upsets like #1 Missouri going down, LSU found it's way back to New Orleans.

  4. #16
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    Re: Stepping out on a limb --- I'm predicting Bama in the BCS CG, more...

    This ain't even a limb. Personally, I think that at Oregon St. poses a much greater threat to Oregon that Stanford. But neither one will be easy.

    And Notre Dame playing down to the level of their competition is going to burn them. I think that they are better than every team on their schedule. But I think that Wake Forest will give them fits on Saturday.
    Lucky #13

  5. #17
    BamaNation All-American Florida Tom's Avatar
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    Re: Stepping out on a limb --- I'm predicting Bama in the BCS CG, more...

    You put a lot of work into to this & I appreciate the read. Just hope you nailed it on any count.

  6. #18
    BamaNation All-SEC GP for Bama's Avatar
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    Re: Stepping out on a limb --- I'm predicting Bama in the BCS CG, more...

    I hope you are right. There are a lot of variations that could work out for us. As long as two lose and we beat Georgia.
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  7. #19
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    Re: Stepping out on a limb --- I'm predicting Bama in the BCS CG, more...

    Quote Originally Posted by uafan4life View Post
    Call me a homer, a crimson-colored-glasses wearer, or even a crazy lunatic - I've probably answered to worse.

    The more I think about it, the more likely I think it is that we make the BCS Championship Game. There are a few ways that I can see it going down and I'll post the ways I think are most likely to happen but I really believe that it is going to happen. I'm also going to make a few other predictions regarding some other Conference and Bowl results, all at least somewhat related to the scenario(s).


    Scenario 1 (I believe most likely)
    Week 12:
    - #17 UCLA wins a close game against arch-rival USC to clinch a berth in the Pac12 Championship Game, with the key stat of the game being 3 crucial Matt Barkley interceptions.
    - #6 Florida cruises against Jacksonville State, leaving no doubt in this game from the opening whistle
    - #5 Georgia gives up far more yards and points than they'd like to Georgia Southern but still wins by more than 2 TDs
    - #4 Alabama rolls big over Western Carolina, pitching a shutout and winning by at least 40 points
    - #3 Notre Dame has less trouble with Wake Forest than they have with other teams they should have easily handled at home but the game is still close early in the 4th quarter. ND tacks on a late TD to win by double digits.
    - #2 Kansas State ends up in a shootout with Baylor, another Big XII basketball-on-grass game, but pulls ahead for good halfway through the 4th quarter. The physical toll, though, that Colin Klein has been taking throughout the season starts to mount with Klein leaving the game for a few plays more than once for a minor "injury".
    - #1 Oregon feels the pressure of being the top dog their very first week at the top of the BCS rankings and comes out tight, struggling early to find a rhythm on offense. Stanford's physical play ends up chewing up clock on offense and frustrating Oregon's offense the entire game, holding Oregon to its lowest points and yards total on the year. Oregon has a chance to score a TD in the final minutes to win the game but, just like Alabama last week, a late turnover ends their chances and drains the life out of the home crowd as they feel their title hopes sinking away.

    Week 13:
    #11 Stanford beats #15 UCLA on the road in a close game and earns the right to play for the Pac12 Title, at home, the next week, against UCLA.
    #9 South Carolina comes to play on the road against in-state rival Clemson, dominating the Tigers and showing them what a top-tier SEC Team plays like, as opposed to the "fight" that the kittens at the Barn gave them to start the season.
    #6 Florida also shows the voters something with a good, solid win over #10 Florida State, with the Gator defense pretty much controlling the Seminole offense the entire game.
    #5 Georgia comes back strong after their "test" against Georgia Southern to win by 21+ over rival Georgia Tech.
    #4 Oregon, suffering a bit of a letdown after their soul-crushing loss to Stanford, plays a bit of a lackluster game against rival Oregon State but still manages to win by double digits.
    #3 Alabama crushes the Barn in the Iron Bowl, handling the Tigers one of their worst losses, if not their worst loss, in Iron Bowl history to leave the Barn win-less in SEC play for the first time since 1980.
    #2 Notre Dame heads west to take on a USC squad with seemingly little to play for, having lost their shot at a Pac12 Title and a Rose Bowl berth the previous week. Barkeley, however, comes out determined to atone for last week's mistakes and leads USC to a dominating win, crushing the Domers' title hopes with a 21+ point win.
    #1 Kansas State takes the week off, grateful to let Colin Klein have an extra week to heal before their season finale with Texas.

    Week 14, aka Championship Week:
    #11 Notre Dame sits at home, watching the teams who still have a shot at a National Championship play to determine who gets to go, wondering what might have been.
    #10 Stanford, having beaten UCLA the week before on the road, has no trouble with UCLA at home to win the Pac12 Title.
    #6 Oregon, much like Notre Dame, sits at home watching other teams play for what they thought was surely theirs only a couple weeks earlier.
    #3 Florida also sits at home, watching to find out who wins the SEC Championship and hoping that the dominoes fall just right in order to give them a shot at the BCS Championship Game.
    #2 Alabama faces off against #4 Georgia for the SEC Championship and an all-but-certain berth in the BCS Championship Game. After a couple of relatively easy games, Bama is much more healthy and plays closer to mid-season form. The Tide Rolls over the Bulldogs somewhere close to the tune of 38 to 17, winning the SEC Championship they missed out on last season and earning a shot at back-to-back BCS National Championships.
    #1 Kansas State has a huge scare against Texas late in the 2nd Quarter, as Colin Klein heads to the locker-room early and the Wildcats are down by two scores when the rest of the team join him at half-time. Klein comes back to the field for the start of the second half, however, and leads his team to a comeback win over the Longhorns to win the Big XII Championship and earn their spot in the BCS National Championship Game.

    Bowl Games:
    #15 Florida State faces off against #16 Louisville in the snooze-fest known as the BCS Orange Bowl. Florida State wins easily in the Worst-of-the-Best-Bowl.
    #9 Stanford faces off against #12 Nebraska in the Rose Bowl as a 7 point favorite. Nebraska covers the spread but Stanford pulls out a close one in the end.
    #4 Oregon takes their lofty ranking and consolation-prize-BCS-Bowl berth in the Fiesta Bowl up against #11 Oklahoma. Stoops, somewhat maligned for choking in BCS Bowl Games, gets his team ready to play and Oklahoma slightly shocks the college football world with a hard-fought upset win over the Oregon Ducks.
    #3 Florida heads to New Orleans to take on #10 Notre Dame in the BCS Sugar Bowl. The Irish desperately want to make a statement against a highly ranked SEC team after dropping so far in the polls following their loss to USC, and make a statement they do. A bad statement. The Irish fall flat on their collective faces as the Gators chew off and hand the Irish back their keisters, with the Gators giving them their second 21+ point loss in a row.
    #2 Alabama plays against #1 Kansas State for all the marbles. Despite being undefeated and ranked #1 in the BCS Standings, although by a very small margin, the Wildcats come into Miami as an 8 point underdog. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, six weeks is far too long to give Saban, Smart, and Nussmeier to prepare and the Tide Rolls to a 17 point win to secure their 15th National Championship and 3rd BCS Title in four years.


    For some strange reason, this "feels" to me like the most likely outcome. I'm not sure why but that's what my gut is telling me. Forcing my head to consider other options, however, gives me these other two possible scenarios:



    Scenario 2 (probably 2nd most likely)
    Week 12:
    All the same results, except:
    #1 Oregon pulls out a late win over Stanford with a game-winning drive as time is running out.

    Week 13:
    All the same results.

    Week 14:
    All the same results, except:
    #2 Kansas State heads into the locker room trailing Texas at the half, after Colin Klein had headed to the locker room earlier. Klein comes out in the second half and give it his best shot but leaves the game for good early in the 3rd Quarter. Texas wins and the Wildcats' miracle season comes to a crushing end.

    Bowl Games:
    Significantly different but most of the losers are stil the losers.
    Most importantly:
    #2 Alabama faces off against #1 Oregon in the BCS Championship Game. Oregon finds out that this Alabama team is a much better team than the Barn team that beat them in the 2010 BCSCG, and Alabama Rolls to its 15th National Championship.



    Scenario 3 (probably 3rd most likely)
    Week 12:
    All the same results, except:
    #1 Oregon pulls out a late win over Stanford with a game-winning drive as time is running out.

    Week 13:
    All the same results.

    Week 14:
    All the same results, except:
    #2 Kansas State heads into the locker room leadingTexas at the half, after Colin Klein had headed to the locker room earlier. Klein comes out in the second half and give it his best shot but leaves the game for good early in the 4th Quarter. Somehow, though, Kansas State is able to hold on to a very, very close win. Unfortunately for the 'Cats, Alabama's convincing win is enough for Alabama to jump them in the Harris Poll and the computer rankings, giving Alabama the #2 spot in the BCS and a berth in the BCS National Championship game.

    Bowl Games:
    Significantly different but most of the losers are stil the losers.
    Most importantly:
    #2 Alabama faces off against #1 Oregon in the BCS Championship Game. Oregon finds out that this Alabama team is a much better team than the Barn team that beat them in the 2010 BCSCG, and Alabama Rolls to its 15th National Championship.



    Call me crazy, if you want, but I just cannot envision all three of the top teams finishing undefeated and leaving Bama out of the BCS Title Game. It could happen, of course. At the moment, it is even the most logical outcome. However, something tells me that it's just not going to happen and that we'll be headed to Miami on January 7th.
    I don't see how all of this doesn't happen...

  8. #20
    BamaNation All-SEC ROLLTRIBE's Avatar
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    Re: Stepping out on a limb --- I'm predicting Bama in the BCS CG, more...

    That ship sailed last Saturday night about 6:15 PM

  9. #21
    BamaNation Hall of Fame TideFan in AU's Avatar
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    Re: Stepping out on a limb --- I'm predicting Bama in the BCS CG, more...

    I was with you until you said Stoops beat Oregon. It all seemed plausible until that point!
    “And the roses in this grand ol’ stadium are once again Crimson!” - Eli Gold, Jan 7th, 2010

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  10. #22
    Suspended JIB's Avatar
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    Re: Stepping out on a limb --- I'm predicting Bama in the BCS CG, more...

    I really, really hope Oregon and Notre Dame lose, but I'm not counting on it. I find pessimism can be rewarding in sports fandom. I just don't think Stanford or Oregon State can beat Oregon.

  11. #23
    BamaNation Hall of Fame GreatDanish's Avatar
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    Re: Stepping out on a limb --- I'm predicting Bama in the BCS CG, more...

    Quote Originally Posted by JIB View Post
    I really, really hope Oregon and Notre Dame lose, but I'm not counting on it. I find pessimism can be rewarding in sports fandom. I just don't think Stanford or Oregon State can beat Oregon.
    I see your point.
    Let me also say this... While no single game looks to go in our favor - I mean, Oregon looks better than Stanford and Oregon State, Kansas State looks better than Texas, ... - in the big picture, it is also unlikely that all three of those teams win out.
    Sometimes, especially in sports, the big picture is more accurate than the sum of its parts. Just like we look at our schedule and looks like no one can beat us, but when you consider how difficult it is to go undefeated especially as the defending national champ, it was very likely that SOMEONE would beat us.
    If I was a betting man, I would bet large amounts of money that AT LEAST one of the three will lose. I wouldn't bet a lot on two of them losing, but I certainly think it's not that improbable.

  12. #24
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    Re: Stepping out on a limb --- I'm predicting Bama in the BCS CG, more...

    The only way Oregon loses is that their defense is beat up worse than they are saying. I don't think KSt loses unless Klein is hurt worse than advertised. I believe USC beats Notre Dumb. We just have to hope either KSt or the Ducks lose.

  13. #25
    BamaNation All-SEC 45longcolt's Avatar
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    Re: Stepping out on a limb --- I'm predicting Bama in the BCS CG, more...

    UAFAN4LIFE, I dare you to delete your thread and then go over that again. LOL
    I like you thinking though!!!

  14. #26
    BamaNation All-American Matt0424's Avatar
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    Re: Stepping out on a limb --- I'm predicting Bama in the BCS CG, more...

    A couple of things to keep in mind down the stretch...

    USC, if they win out, may be in the way of two of the teams... Oregon and ND. They (USCw) also have the talents to beat either team. They lost to Oregon earlier, yes, but it's tough to beat at team twice in one year...ask LSU. They are almost certain to at LEAST knock off ND.

    Oregon vs. Stanford this weekend is the closest thing to a "preview" of what it would look like between Oregon and us... I know, I know, Stanford doesn;t have the athletes we do, but the philosophy employed by them is very similar. I hope that they figure out a way to slow down the game enough with their offense to pull a win.

    K State, IMO, has the best shot at going undefeated. I think both Baylor and Texas will give them trouble, and with the way Texas has played since the Red River embarassment it could be REAL trouble....but without the look ahead to a championship game, the Texas game they'll be up for.

    The best thing that we can do is take care of business on our end, and le the rest work itself out...

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