This year's QB crop is very deep. While Saban's reputation as a talent developer at many positions slots guys up a round many cases, I do not think Saban's reputation with quarterbacks would gain the same response from GMs. AJ would likely fall where his draft grade by the prognosticators dictates. Also, I don't think the need for QB is as high as it was a few years ago when the quality of QB play was not very deep past the "elites." A lot of rebuilding programs are invested in recent high draft picks and that will likely put guys who are having quality seasons a little lower than their pure talent dictates. Other middling franchises seem to have QBs that they still believe can be their signal caller, too.
A deep class of QBs combined with a lack of wide QB need in the NFL kind of spells it out for AJ McCarron. He would be best served returning for his Senior season and being the best Senior in college. Another year similar or better to this year's season would solidify him as a first round pick in my opinion.