The same goes for UNC. I don't see adding them if you have to add another NC school to appease them. However, I've looked at the numbers and their brand is extremely valuable. They average 55K attendance in football, which puts them ahead of schools like Georgia Tech, Miami, etc... their athletic department's revenue puts them ahead of schools like Virginia Tech, Clemson, Missouri, etc... The key though is how much their tier three rights are worth. They are apparently worth as much as NC State, Virginia Tech, and Auburn put together. Their programming value would be extremely high and their population is high enough that despite having other instate schools, they would add a lot subscribers as well. They are a national brand though, a bit like Notre Dame and Alabama football (on the list I saw, Alabama comes in second to North Carolina in tier three revenue) and would make selling SEC programming that much easier.
If there is any sort of inevitability to having 16 teams, the SEC absolutely needs to zero in on those two schools and if they can't land either then they need to stall going to 16 as long as possible. If you don't like UNC and Notre Dame, take a hard look at NC State and Virginia Tech, who many seem to think is the direction the SEC is headed. Those two are vastly inferior.
Make it official:
Louisville to ACC
Football changes and so do people. - Coach Paul "Bear" Bryant
Louisville>Maryland better football and basketball.
If the SEC were to follow a similar strategy rather than continuing to focus on cultural fit, budget size, attendance, etc then I think the cache of UA, LSU, FL, GA, UT, and TXAM carried to the borders of the east coast is more than sufficient to incrementally increase the revenue for the entire conference. TXAM would love the opportunity to regularly play on the east coast just as UNC, NCST would love to play regularly in Texas.
Personally, just as we did for the first TV deal, I think the SEC is still underselling the value of its media rights in this era of expansion because we are too focused on values that obviously dont matter much to universities anymore. We dont want to be viewed as the poacher conference. Well, that label can be pretty much tagged on the Big10, and ACC at this point. I dont think we have to worry about that stigma.
Last point, what I dont understand if these schools would actually pay a fee to exit a conference then why cant they pay a fee to enter a conference if their entry is dilutive to the conference from a per capita revenue standpoint? Its obvious that continued viability is worth something to many of these schools just as it is valuable for other schools to re-affiliate to increase revenue. Something tells me that if the SEC had an entry fee that many schools would line up and pay it. Such an arrangement would likely allow the SEC to backfill in its region with virtually no punitive effect to the conference as a whole. Likewise, it might make it easier to draw a UNC if such a move was subsidized for a period of time by a Duke, FSU, GA Tech, VT, or Clemson. Let's say you have a $60M budget with the prospects of no home after expansion and its likely your budget falls to $40M or $30M but your entry into the SEC might only be dilutive to the conference in the amount of say $12M every year. To me if your that school you would gladly pay the entry fee until the economics even out over time.
Another point too, I question whether its as dilutive to take some of these other schools that we fessing over. To me in the expansion, you have to look at the collective value of the ACC and the SEC's media rights and which schools in each conference are largely responsible for driving that value. The reason is those media dollars are portable, imo. If the SEC's media rights are worth $1B and the ACC's are worth $600M and the SEC elects to merge UVA, UNC, Duke, NCST (assuming these are the 4 schools that ultimately drive the value for such media rights) then ESPN cant in good conscience expect to pay less than $1.6B since they are already paying that. Its this reasoning that makes me believe that it in fact would be economically more feasible to expand to 20-24 teams. Eliminating BC, Maryland, and Wake sacrifices nothing on the media value of the ACC's $600M but without these 3 institutions the per capita media value goes up thereby lessening the dilutive effect of a merger.
Last edited by JDCrimson; November 28th, 2012 at 02:46 PM.
So is this who is left in the ACC?
"My momma always said you got to put the past behind you before you can move on." Forrest Gump
"The past is never dead. It's not even past." William Faulkner
"A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but never preserved except in memory LLAP" Leonard Nimoy
The realignments remind me of that old cartoon drawing of the big fish swallowing the medium sized fish, which is swallowing a small fish.
Maryland goes to the Big Ten. so the ACC grabs Louisville to take their place. The Big East replaces their losses by reaching down to Conference USA to take Tulane and East Carolina (football only). Not sure what Tulane offers other than a big market. Think they regret leaving the SEC?
So C-USA raids the Sun Belt by taking Middle Tennessee State and Florida Atlantic. That leaves the Sun Belt with just eight football schools, so we may see more teams called up from the FCS.
on some b1g 10 forums, they are saying the b1g 10 has offered georgia tech and are expecting an answer after the acc champ game.
It should be interesting to see if the B1G business model is correct, that is if the addition of Maryland, Rutgers, and/or GT bring any additional subscribers and monies. For these schools to justify their admission, they will need to attract an additional $90 million+ annually.
If conferences are going to reach, the SEC can just grab Syracuse and enter a state with ten million more people. Not saying they should do that, but Georgia Tech by itself is an easily countered move. For the record, my math says Syracuse could be worth in the neighborhood of 45 million annually to a TV network. Now, that's gross, so you'd have to deduct expenses and then take the share the conference keeps... but, it's certainly possible for programs in those big states to produce a lot of subscriber dollars.