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  1. #222
    BamaNation First Team freefall's Avatar
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    Re: Official NEW Expansion Thread: Demise of the ACC?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ldlane View Post
    That Powerhouse Louisville!
    Exactly... SMH.

    ETA: For those of you who remember your history circa 1995, this is the same loserville that voted to kick VT out of the metro conference back when they were trying to put together the first superconference. Not that I hold a grudge or anything...

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  3. #223
    BamaNation All-American KrAzY3's Avatar
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    Re: Official NEW Expansion Thread: Demise of the ACC?

    Quote Originally Posted by Crimson1967 View Post
    I do not want Notre Dame because I don't see them agreeing to be an equal member with everyone else. And, yes, they are in Indiana, but they are still pretty far north.

    I'm not wild about UNC, either. Yes, it gets us in a new state, but a state that is more about basketball and one that is divided into four parts among BCS teams (five if you count East Carolina).
    Texas A&M, Notre Dame, and North Carolina seem like they'll be the biggest pieces in an expansion. Notre Dame remains a long shot, but they did make a deal with the ACC, which represents a move further south and some flexibility. I completely agree you do not add them unless as an equal member though (which is unlikely anytime soon). If Texas A&M can be equal so can Notre Dame.

    The same goes for UNC. I don't see adding them if you have to add another NC school to appease them. However, I've looked at the numbers and their brand is extremely valuable. They average 55K attendance in football, which puts them ahead of schools like Georgia Tech, Miami, etc... their athletic department's revenue puts them ahead of schools like Virginia Tech, Clemson, Missouri, etc... The key though is how much their tier three rights are worth. They are apparently worth as much as NC State, Virginia Tech, and Auburn put together. Their programming value would be extremely high and their population is high enough that despite having other instate schools, they would add a lot subscribers as well. They are a national brand though, a bit like Notre Dame and Alabama football (on the list I saw, Alabama comes in second to North Carolina in tier three revenue) and would make selling SEC programming that much easier.

    If there is any sort of inevitability to having 16 teams, the SEC absolutely needs to zero in on those two schools and if they can't land either then they need to stall going to 16 as long as possible. If you don't like UNC and Notre Dame, take a hard look at NC State and Virginia Tech, who many seem to think is the direction the SEC is headed. Those two are vastly inferior.

    Quote Originally Posted by Crimson1967 View Post
    It is interesting nobody seems to want to leave the SEC. Its not like no one has ever left before and our exit fee of zero isn't putting a gun to anyone's head.
    Well, the SEC, Big 10 and Pac-12 look to be the only parties with, or ready to launch a network. That means more potential revenue for most schools. I don't see any schools departing from those three, but everyone else is still vulnerable.

    Quote Originally Posted by TideMom2Boys View Post
    @McMurphyESPN: BREAKING: ACC votes to add Louisville sources tell @ESPN. Cards will be 6th team to leave Big East for ACC
    They actually do generate a lot of revenue. They are bad if you want to do a TV network, but the ACC's deal already sold their tier three football rights anyway.

  4. #224
    Moderator Ldlane's Avatar
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    Re: Official NEW Expansion Thread: Maryland reportedly going to B1G

    Make it official:

    Louisville to ACC
    Football changes and so do people. - Coach Paul "Bear" Bryant

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    Re: Official NEW Expansion Thread: Maryland reportedly going to B1G

    Quote Originally Posted by Ldlane View Post
    Make it official:

    Louisville to ACC
    As I have felt at pretty much every stage of this game, I hope this settles it. But I'm sure it won't.

  6. #226
    BamaNation All-SEC Mystical's Avatar
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    Re: Official NEW Expansion Thread: Maryland reportedly going to B1G

    Louisville>Maryland better football and basketball.

  7. #227
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    Re: Official NEW Expansion Thread: Demise of the ACC?

    Quote Originally Posted by KrAzY3 View Post
    Texas A&M, Notre Dame, and North Carolina seem like they'll be the biggest pieces in an expansion. Notre Dame remains a long shot, but they did make a deal with the ACC, which represents a move further south and some flexibility. I completely agree you do not add them unless as an equal member though (which is unlikely anytime soon). If Texas A&M can be equal so can Notre Dame.

    The same goes for UNC. I don't see adding them if you have to add another NC school to appease them. However, I've looked at the numbers and their brand is extremely valuable. They average 55K attendance in football, which puts them ahead of schools like Georgia Tech, Miami, etc... their athletic department's revenue puts them ahead of schools like Virginia Tech, Clemson, Missouri, etc... The key though is how much their tier three rights are worth. They are apparently worth as much as NC State, Virginia Tech, and Auburn put together. Their programming value would be extremely high and their population is high enough that despite having other instate schools, they would add a lot subscribers as well. They are a national brand though, a bit like Notre Dame and Alabama football (on the list I saw, Alabama comes in second to North Carolina in tier three revenue) and would make selling SEC programming that much easier.

    If there is any sort of inevitability to having 16 teams, the SEC absolutely needs to zero in on those two schools and if they can't land either then they need to stall going to 16 as long as possible. If you don't like UNC and Notre Dame, take a hard look at NC State and Virginia Tech, who many seem to think is the direction the SEC is headed. Those two are vastly inferior.


    Well, the SEC, Big 10 and Pac-12 look to be the only parties with, or ready to launch a network. That means more potential revenue for most schools. I don't see any schools departing from those three, but everyone else is still vulnerable.


    They actually do generate a lot of revenue. They are bad if you want to do a TV network, but the ACC's deal already sold their tier three football rights anyway.
    You say stall but if you know the Big10 is negotiating with them too then you have no choice but to negotiate as well otherwise you likely lose the opportunity to merge them. They have a network we dont, based on their targets of late their economics of expansion differs greatly from ours and actually may not be an equal sharing in the conference at all now. Our expansion terms might not be as flexible as theirs. Its pretty obvious their expansion efforts are driven from this point forward on something other than competitive balance, cultural fit, or attendance. They are expanding the brand of the Big 4 in their conference (Nebraska, OSU, UM, and PSU) as their primary objective and it appears they have the intelligence data (Nielson ratings of games watched outside the conference geographic footprint) to backup an approach whereby they acquire marginal institutions in high market areas.

    If the SEC were to follow a similar strategy rather than continuing to focus on cultural fit, budget size, attendance, etc then I think the cache of UA, LSU, FL, GA, UT, and TXAM carried to the borders of the east coast is more than sufficient to incrementally increase the revenue for the entire conference. TXAM would love the opportunity to regularly play on the east coast just as UNC, NCST would love to play regularly in Texas.

    Personally, just as we did for the first TV deal, I think the SEC is still underselling the value of its media rights in this era of expansion because we are too focused on values that obviously dont matter much to universities anymore. We dont want to be viewed as the poacher conference. Well, that label can be pretty much tagged on the Big10, and ACC at this point. I dont think we have to worry about that stigma.

    Last point, what I dont understand if these schools would actually pay a fee to exit a conference then why cant they pay a fee to enter a conference if their entry is dilutive to the conference from a per capita revenue standpoint? Its obvious that continued viability is worth something to many of these schools just as it is valuable for other schools to re-affiliate to increase revenue. Something tells me that if the SEC had an entry fee that many schools would line up and pay it. Such an arrangement would likely allow the SEC to backfill in its region with virtually no punitive effect to the conference as a whole. Likewise, it might make it easier to draw a UNC if such a move was subsidized for a period of time by a Duke, FSU, GA Tech, VT, or Clemson. Let's say you have a $60M budget with the prospects of no home after expansion and its likely your budget falls to $40M or $30M but your entry into the SEC might only be dilutive to the conference in the amount of say $12M every year. To me if your that school you would gladly pay the entry fee until the economics even out over time.

    Another point too, I question whether its as dilutive to take some of these other schools that we fessing over. To me in the expansion, you have to look at the collective value of the ACC and the SEC's media rights and which schools in each conference are largely responsible for driving that value. The reason is those media dollars are portable, imo. If the SEC's media rights are worth $1B and the ACC's are worth $600M and the SEC elects to merge UVA, UNC, Duke, NCST (assuming these are the 4 schools that ultimately drive the value for such media rights) then ESPN cant in good conscience expect to pay less than $1.6B since they are already paying that. Its this reasoning that makes me believe that it in fact would be economically more feasible to expand to 20-24 teams. Eliminating BC, Maryland, and Wake sacrifices nothing on the media value of the ACC's $600M but without these 3 institutions the per capita media value goes up thereby lessening the dilutive effect of a merger.
    Last edited by JDCrimson; November 28th, 2012 at 02:46 PM.

  8. #228
    BamaNation Hall of Fame GrayTide's Avatar
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    Re: Official NEW Expansion Thread: Demise of the ACC?

    So is this who is left in the ACC?
    UNC
    Duke
    NC State
    Wake Forest
    UVA
    VA Tech
    Clemson
    Ga Tech
    FSU
    Miami
    Syracuse
    Pittsburgh
    Louisville
    Boston College
    "My momma always said you got to put the past behind you before you can move on." Forrest Gump

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  9. #229
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    Re: Official NEW Expansion Thread: Demise of the ACC?

    Quote Originally Posted by GrayTide View Post
    So is this who is left in the ACC?
    UNC
    Duke
    NC State
    Wake Forest
    UVA
    VA Tech
    Clemson
    Ga Tech
    FSU
    Miami
    Syracuse
    Pittsburgh
    Louisville
    Boston College
    Yes. I did a little research the new ACC tv deal (12 yrs $3.6B) is on par with the SEC's current TV deal, $17M per season per team. I believe you could merge the 8 of those teams in your list (UNC, Duke, NCST, UVA, VT, CU, GATech, FSU) and probably put together a new accretive media deal for a 22 team SEC conference with division play. Then let the Big10 absorb Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, and BC and maybe even miami. Then you negotiate hard to pull Notre Dame and pair them with Miami or Wake or another team on the west side to get you to 24 teams.

  10. #230
    BamaNation All-American KrAzY3's Avatar
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    Re: Official NEW Expansion Thread: Demise of the ACC?

    Quote Originally Posted by JDCrimson View Post
    Yes. I did a little research the new ACC tv deal (12 yrs $3.6B) is on par with the SEC's current TV deal, $17M per season per team.
    It's not though. Yes, it was a fairly good deal all things considered, but it includes tier three football rights. That's why FSU was so mad, they basically lost all their PPV revenue.

  11. #231
    BamaNation Hall of Fame Crimson1967's Avatar
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    Re: Official NEW Expansion Thread: Demise of the ACC?

    The realignments remind me of that old cartoon drawing of the big fish swallowing the medium sized fish, which is swallowing a small fish.

    Maryland goes to the Big Ten. so the ACC grabs Louisville to take their place. The Big East replaces their losses by reaching down to Conference USA to take Tulane and East Carolina (football only). Not sure what Tulane offers other than a big market. Think they regret leaving the SEC?

    So C-USA raids the Sun Belt by taking Middle Tennessee State and Florida Atlantic. That leaves the Sun Belt with just eight football schools, so we may see more teams called up from the FCS.

  12. #232
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    Re: Official NEW Expansion Thread: Demise of the ACC?

    on some b1g 10 forums, they are saying the b1g 10 has offered georgia tech and are expecting an answer after the acc champ game.

  13. #233
    BamaNation All-SEC RhodeIslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Official NEW Expansion Thread: Demise of the ACC?

    It should be interesting to see if the B1G business model is correct, that is if the addition of Maryland, Rutgers, and/or GT bring any additional subscribers and monies. For these schools to justify their admission, they will need to attract an additional $90 million+ annually.

  14. #234
    BamaNation All-American KrAzY3's Avatar
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    Re: Official NEW Expansion Thread: Demise of the ACC?

    Quote Originally Posted by crimsoncamaro View Post
    on some b1g 10 forums, they are saying the b1g 10 has offered georgia tech and are expecting an answer after the acc champ game.
    I really hope they do this. They are a bad fit and the only reason I could see their doing this is because Georgia Tech has a history as being a Notre Dame rival. If they get Georgia Tech and Notre Dame that's another thing, or North Carolina and Georgia Tech. By itself though, Georgia Tech isn't that stellar an addition.

    If conferences are going to reach, the SEC can just grab Syracuse and enter a state with ten million more people. Not saying they should do that, but Georgia Tech by itself is an easily countered move. For the record, my math says Syracuse could be worth in the neighborhood of 45 million annually to a TV network. Now, that's gross, so you'd have to deduct expenses and then take the share the conference keeps... but, it's certainly possible for programs in those big states to produce a lot of subscriber dollars.

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