"saban has awoken a sleeping GIANT"
Goes into OT 28-28. Dawgs TD, we block the kick. M. Williams TD, point after good.
Here are some significant stats for the game:
Run Differential: Bama 137.17, UGA 26.66
Penalties yards per game: Bama 34.3, UGA 50.8
Net Yards per Attempt: Bama 3.7, UGA 3.0
Turnover Margin: Bama 1.17, UGA 0.75
Run Differential is Rushing yards per game minus Rushing yards allowed per game
Net yards per attempt is Yards per attempt in the passing game minus yards per attempt allowed in the passing game
This is the formula that Coach Stallings gave to win football games: Run the ball, stop the run, don't turn the ball over. And I'll add: don't committ penalties.
I keep hearing much made of Aaron Murray's pass efficiency (PE) rating, leading the nation at 177.2. I have also felt a little vulnerable in our secondary, leading me to be somewhat worried about the dogs possibly being able to pass on us. I also keep hearing how "great" Georgia's defense is and how AJ may struggle against them, even though his PE is second in the country at 176.3. So I decided to look a little deeper into the numbers.
The best PE defenses UGA has faced this year were against 1 Florida (91.5), 2 Vanderbilt (believe it or not: 99.8), and 3 South Carolina (120.3). It so happens that two of those games (Florida and SC) produced UGA's lowest offensive scoring output (17 pts and 7 pts respectively).
The outlier in that group is Vandy, who of course gave up 48 pts to the Dogs. But a closer look at the stats from that game reveal that Vandy gave up 302 rushing yds (!!!). 5 of UGA's 7 TDs in that game were on the ground - not through the air. Now I'll admit that I didn't watch that particular game, but the numbers sure look like Vandy simply could not stop Georgia's rushing game and sold out to try to stop it, pulling their safeties up and consequently getting burned for 265yds and 2 passing TDs. But it wasn't Vandy's pass defense that lost that game - it was their inability to stop the run.
So there seems to be some good correlation between the strength of UGA's opponents' PE defense and UGA's overall scoring potential, particularly when the opponent can limit yards on the ground.
So let's look at how those three opponents fare against the ground game. Florida and South Carolina are tied for 7th in the country against the rush, allowing only 3.1 yds per attempt. Vandy? Tied for 48th at 4.0. How does Bama compare? Tied with Stanford for 1st at 2.4. And how is Bama's PE defense? 5th in the country at 98.7, comparable to Florida's and Vanderbilt's. But unlike Vandy, Bama's got a nation-leading run defense to go along with it. So we shouldn't have to stack the box to slow Gurley and Marshall.
Despite our seemingly being vulnerable in the secondary against the nation's most efficient passer, I don't expect Georgia's offensive output to be too much different from what it was in the SC and Florida games (7 and 17 points).
The real passing vulnerability should be on the other side of the ball. Remember: AJ is a very close second in the country in pass efficiency. How is UGA's PE defense? 32nd in the country at 118.7. This is comparable to Michigan's (120.8) and A&M's (120.9), games in which we scored 41 and 24 pts respectively. When it's all said and done, I expect AJ's game PE to be in the 155-160 range and Murray's to be in the 130-135 range.
And we should have more success on the ground than they do as well: Bama averages 5.4 yds per rush (T 9th) against UGA's allowing 3.8 (T 34th). UGA averages 5.0 yds per rush (T 25th) against Bama's allowing only 2.4 yds (T 1st).
Tough game? Sure. But I'm not as worried as I was about A&M, which was a classic trap game against a novel offense we hadn't seen before, led by a legit Heisman candidate and phenom. UGA? Been there, done that, and all the trends seem to be in our favor. I'll stick to my original prediction of 27-17. But I wouldn't be too shocked to see 30-14 either. I just can't see them scoring more (or us scoring less) than 20.
The real question is how Georgia got to the game. 1st off they got destroyed by the only balanced attacking offense they played all year in USCE, and were fortunate enough that LSU squeaked it out off them the next week and Florida got a depleted team the next week setting up a winner takes all Cocktail party. In that particular game UGA was very fortunate to have just plain odd and costly turnovers go their way because Murray didnt do anything against UF and Driskle despite having a bad day lead the gators to a late oppurtunity but that too resulted in a TO.
Not saying UGA doesnt belong here but if Bray can put 40+ on them with a team that was near the bottom and bo wallace had them on the ropes for a half I think that proves that UGA isnt as unexposed as people are claiming while they are ragging on Bama.
Bama 27 UGA 19
“There's not too much to say. Alabama thoroughly beat us. They are a better team. They were coached better, they played better, and they looked like they will have a big season. They have a heck of a team.”
I spoke with an SEC official yesterday, who said that if both teams play their best, Bama is 14-17 points better....so, I'm going to go:
as i mentioned earlier, if we can't put consistent pressure on him, he'll pick out D apart. others have correctly noted as well that in many of the games we won handily there were several pass plays where the receivers were wide open and completions didn't happen because of poor qb play. we've dodged a lot of bullets this year in passing situations.
i don't mean to bring gloom and doom, because i also believe that if we consistently pressure murray, we'll probably win. but our problem is that we don't get much push on the pocket with a 4 man rush (yes, i know we play a 3-4 but we very often have four men with their hand on the ground at the snap) and our dbs are suspect in man-to-man situations. thus, running a standard rush may allow him too much time and blitzing may expose our corners.
on the offensive end, although we apparently worked it out mostly in the second half, in the first half of the a&m game their dbs did a great job blanketing our receivers and aj had nowhere to go with the ball. i believe georgia is as capable in the secondary as a&m.
this is going to be an extremely tough test for us and unless our pass defense is lights out, we're in trouble. i hope i'm wrong, but...
Just because Johnny Football put up some points on Bama doesn't mean we can't defend a good offense.
We have the best defense in the NCAA, still giving up less than 10 points a game.
If we play Alabama football we will win by 14 or more.
Guess we were a bad team in 2009 with the close win against Auburn, and needing a blocked field goal to win against TN. . Every team will have "those" types of games. Look at Nd and even Florida..where some think are better than us.
I honestly think we just had a bad first half against A&M, well...first quarter. Then we did a good job of shutting him down, and had a chance to win. This doesn't mean we forgot how to play defense....
Also, both Aj and cooper were still nursing injuries. It has been weeks now and looks like they are healthier.
Last edited by TideMom2Boys; November 27th, 2012 at 09:27 AM.
Love the number crunching! That's good stuff. Here's hopefully what matters the most:
Bama: CNS > Georgia: CMR
One other thing: Remember that in our two toughest games this year against LSU and TAMU both the opposing qbs played lights out.
TAMU was a little different because we had to account for JM's scrambling/rushing abiltiy, but the two passes that he hurt us with the most in the fourth quarter were both thrown at perfect trajectory and location to beat excellent coverage.
Against LSU (which is much more comparable to Georgia), Mett did to us what AJ did to them in NOLA with excellent pinpoint passing very often beating tight coverage.
So although opposing teams have had some open guys running around in the secondary, the point is I think Murray will have to have a great day of throwing the football against us and it is good to know that he has somewhat struggled against the better defensive teams.
I`m afraid my two stents will move again, in this game............ 24- 21 Bama....... Roll Tide!!!!!!
I have but one life to give to my country, and I give it to The Crimson Tide