Objective Comparison of the Schedules and Stats of ND, Alabama, UGA

Alasippi

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The most important stat you brought out was the fact that Georgia is 61st in penalty yardage against. They make way too many dumb mistakes and can be totally undisciplined at times. Not exactly what you need to win championships.
 

Alasippi

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Notre Dame did not have an easy schedule. But, they were fortunate to catch a lot of traditional football powers in down years.

I think we can use Sagarin to weed out some of this win loss stuff.
Notre Dame SoS (30)
Alabama SoS (39)
Georgia SoS (42)

This is thrown off a bit by a couple really soft opponents that Alabama and Georgia played. Likewise, once Alabama and Georgia play it will provide a huge boost to their SoS.

Georgia played #4, #10 (lost), #29, and #33.
Notre Dame played #8 (should have lost), #9, #20, and #37.
Alabama played #7 (lost) #11 and #20, and #33.

Georgie was +53 points, Notre Dame was +46, Alabama was +46

I think the argument could be made that Alabama and Georgia did have a more rigorous schedule due to the difficulties of playing in the SEC. Both Georgia and Notre Dame had very bad days. Georgia got blown out by South Carolina, and Notre Dame should have lost to a 5-6 Pitt team. Alabama distances itself in the fact that they have been able to maintain a higher level of play with more consistency and Notre Dame by not losing. If you remove Georgia's game against South Carolina though, and they might look like the best team on paper.

I would bet on Alabama to beat Georgia or Notre Dame. But, to beat Georgia AND Notre Dame? That's a tall order for any team...
I honestly think ND played the toughest schedule in America this year. Michigan, Stanford, at Oklahoma, at USC, Michigan State, BYU...pretty tough. Yes, some of them were not as solid as predicted to be but still pretty darn difficult.
 

Bamaro

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I think the bottom line is that these are 3 very good teams. If all teams have a 'good' day, we will prevail. If any team is off a little, they will lose. There will be very little room for error.
 

Ole Man Dan

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Having recently stayed at a Holiday Inn...
I'm qualified to say that our stats are skewed by playing a large number of players
in the second halves or our games.
Non-starters have been used to kill the game.
Generally non-starters don't score as many points, and don't make as many sacks
or interceptions. That fact alone skews the statistics.
We have had blow out games, but the majority of our points came in the first half
and we have given our bench guys valuable playing time at the expense of our stats.
 
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UAinAthens

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Emperically, you are correct. However, a closer look points out part of the flaws in this kind of analysis, and what is generally difficult about making such statements. Bama and UGA are both SEC, as is UF, and LSU. Because of that, they play many of the same opponents, although this year UGA and Bama less than others. This means that the overall records of our opponents are going to trend low because teams are going to have losses to each other, even if they are good. (Much like last year when you could argue Arkansas was the 3rd best team in the country, but had two losses, Bama and LSU)

An example is T A&M, they have two losses, LSU and UF. LSU loses to Bama and UF, and UF loses to UGA. USC (the right one) loses to LSU and UF, but beats UGA. That accounts for 9 loses total across all these teams. Since every other team in the SEC plays the same group, not all but some mix, all of those teams will have multiple loses related to the same teams and there is no way to judge at this point whether those teams are bad with 4 losses, or just played 4 elite teams.

ND doesn't have any comparison, because it doesn't have a conference. Several of the "bowl eligible" teams you refer to are Big10(14) teams, and the best one of those ND played, Bama beat 42-14.

I am not arguing its true, but it could be argued that the 6 SEC teams listed at the top are actually 1-6 best teams in the country and would only lose to each other. Your numbers are good, but the problem with them is that they don't really prove anything because of the fact there aren't common schedules.
 

Probius

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Two things stand out to me in those stats. First, UGA's defense vs. Bama's offense. UGA gives up a ton of rushing yards, and Bama should be able to run down their throats. Two, ND's offense vs. Bama's defense. There is no way Notre Dame moves the ball consistently against Bama's defense. Looking good for Bama y'all, rtr.
 

CajunCrimson

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Playing Navy or Pitt is a WHOLE lot tougher then playing Western Carolina, Western Kentucky, or Florida Atlantic. IF ND EVER played a team like that the media would CRUCIFY them....Those games ARE scrimmages. And if the the mighty LSU can struggle against "mighty" Towson State (12-10 victory) and Florida can struggle against that "juggernaut" Louisiana Lafayette (27-20) ND can "struggle" against ANY team on their schedule.

These are kids not professionals so ANYTHING is possible.
Western Kentucky is 7-5 and going bowling....while Pitt is 5-6 and lost to Youngstown State

I think there is a misconception that playing teams in the Big East means that they are good teams -- yet, the Sun Belt may well be comparable to the Big East this year....as far as talent....and UL Lafayette is a pretty good ball team -- who is going bowling for the second year in a row......and have athletes....

Just because it's a small southern school, don't kid yourself, some of these teams are better than you think they are.
 

GreatDanish

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I think, statistically, all of these teams are within a "margin of error" - meaning: looking at the numbers, there isn't a single team that stands out to be significantly better than another. It is going to boil down to who makes fewer mistakes and executes. I know that sounds cliche, but that's not the case against Auburn. We could make a lot of mistakes, not execute well, and still win. Even against LSU we could do that.

A few additional statistics...

Alabama is the only one of the three that has outscored each opponents' average scoring defense. Georgia only scored 7 against SC who averaged allowing 17.42. Notre Dame has done this four times - against Purdue, Michigan, Boston College, and USC.

Alabama and Notre Dame have also held each opponent below their average scoring offense. Georgia has failed to do this 4 times - Buffalo, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Kentucky.

We've outscored our opposing average scoring defenses by 47%. We've held our opponents to 31% of their average scoring offense, on average.
Georgia outscored their opponents' average scoring defenses by 41% and held their opponents to 69% of their average scoring offenses, on average.
Notre Dame - 15% more than their opponents' average SD, and hold opponents to 36% of average SO.

So, relative to our opponents, on average, we have the best offense and the best defense of the three teams.

However, it's so close, that one untimely fumble can easily undo any statistical advantage.
 

HartselleTider

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Absolutely... anyone underrating these Sun-Belt teams simply isn't watching as much college football as they think.

The Sun-Belt already has wins over the SEC, ACC, C-USA, etc.

Arkansas St. went on the road to Oregon and hung 34 points on the Ducks.

UL-Monroe has wins over the SEC, and almost beat Baylor.

Middle Tennessee went on the road to Georgia Tech (who's playing for the ACC title by the way) and dominated 'em.

Troy almost beat Mississippi St. and Tennessee.

Western Kentucky beat Kentucky.... Kentucky beat Kent St. 47-14... Kent St. is ranked #18 in the BCS I believe.



I think many of these Sun-Belt teams are harder to beat than Pittsburgh. Underestimating some of these SEC "reject" recruits playing in the Sun-Belt is a big mistake.
 

PacadermaTideUs

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Playing Navy or Pitt is a WHOLE lot tougher then playing Western Carolina, Western Kentucky, or Florida Atlantic. IF ND EVER played a team like that the media would CRUCIFY them....Those games ARE scrimmages. And if the the mighty LSU can struggle against "mighty" Towson State (12-10 victory) and Florida can struggle against that "juggernaut" Louisiana Lafayette (27-20) ND can "struggle" against ANY team on their schedule.

These are kids not professionals so ANYTHING is possible.
I'd like to point out that neither LSU or Florida are in the NCG. Even so, Sagarin has ULL ranked #61 in his predictor rankings, vs Pittsburgh's #56. UF won by 7. ND won by 3. Is there a significant difference?

As for Western Kentucky, they're ranked #76 and Bama didn't struggle with them, winning 35-0 while playing our twos and threes in the second half.
 

Bamabuzzard

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Well I think anyone looking at it objectively because numbers are numbers:

1) ND has played a tougher schedule
2) ND's defense MORE than stacks up
3) ND's scoring offense lags behind the two SEC teams
4) Alabama overall stats when you look at both sides of the ball are the best

I think Notre Dame, or any non SEC team playing a SEC team in the BCSCG, is in a position that they have to put all those stats in action on the field when the big lights come on.

Now, I'm not saying Notre Dame isn't worthy or won't go out and dog stomp whoever they play in Miami. But after 8 SEC BCS National Championships and in almost all of them having to hear the media play up the other teams offense to be "too strong" for the SEC team. SEC folks are tired of looking at stats. We really are. Go do it. I've grown tired of hearing how SEC defenses are "overrated" and how our offenses "suck" yet in 7 of the 8 national titles the opponent's offense has yet to dominate a single "overrated" SEC defense and their defenses have yet to be able to stop a single "overrated" SEC offense. I say 7 out of 8 because last year's game was two SEC teams. Notre Dame might very well win it all. Who knows at this point. But up to this point stats have proven no good for non-SEC teams going into the BCSNCG against SEC teams.
 

trenda

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Playing Navy or Pitt is a WHOLE lot tougher then playing Western Carolina, Western Kentucky, or Florida Atlantic. IF ND EVER played a team like that the media would CRUCIFY them....Those games ARE scrimmages. And if the the mighty LSU can struggle against "mighty" Towson State (12-10 victory) and Florida can struggle against that "juggernaut" Louisiana Lafayette (27-20) ND can "struggle" against ANY team on their schedule.

These are kids not professionals so ANYTHING is possible.
Just going by the Sagarin ratings:
#59 - Louisiana Monroe
#61 - Louisiana Lafayette
#66 - Pitt
#73 - Navy
#82 - Western KY
#113 - Wake Forest
#121 - Boston College
#125 - Towson
#127 - FL Atlantic
#204 - Western Carolina

You might want to re-think that, Mav.

"Remember, boys, no points for second place!"
 
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selmaborntidefan

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Ok, let me apologize for how I came across. I see how it can be rude although not my intent. Mav, I do appreciate your perspective. Next time I'll try not to post late at night after a rough work day.
 

selmaborntidefan

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Incidentally, I don't think anybody here could consider Notre Dame unworthy. If they had one loss - Florida should be ahead. But ND IS deserving & did what was required.
 

Maverick2

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Just going by the Sagarin ratings:
#59 - Louisiana Monroe
#61 - Louisiana Lafayette
#66 - Pitt
#73 - Navy
#82 - Western KY
#113 - Wake Forest
#121 - Boston College
#125 - Towson
#127 - FL Atlantic
#204 - Western Carolina

You might want to re-think that, Mav.

"Remember, boys, no points for second place!"
Re-think what? Bottom line even if you take out Alabama's FCS opponent your opponents' records is 69-62. The record of the teams Alabama beat (FCS game removed)is 59-62.....ND's opponents record 82-60, Record of teams ND beat 40-32.

Florida from the SEC has played the toughest schedule not Alabama or Georgia.
 

Maverick2

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Thanks for the stats, Mav; but how do these teams stack up against common opponents? Since we're looking at stats and all . . .
Alabama and Georgia have played four common opponents

Tenn, Florida Atlantic, Ole Miss, and Auburn


Ga beat Tenn 51-44
Alabama beat Tenn 44-13

Ga beat Florida Atlantic 56-20
Alabama beat Florida Atlantic 40-7

Ga beat Ole Miss 37-10
Alabama beat Ole Miss 33-14

Ga beat Auburn 38-0
Alabama beat Auburn 49-0

Georgia scored 182 points while surrendering 74 points
Alabama scored 166 points while surrendering 34 points

So adding it all up Ga beat these teams with a point differential of 108 or by 27 points per game
Alabama beat them with a point differential of 132 or by 33 points per game

Alabama and ND have only one common opponent, Michigan
Alabama defeated Michigan 41-14 ND defeated Michigan 13-6

Georgia and ND do not have any common opponents.
 

selmaborntidefan

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Mav,

Your citations of the overall stats are fascinating. However, you are on less solid ground when it comes to schedule criticism. Keep in mind that ND is an independent and gets to choose whoever they want to play. This year was much better than most of the past 20. I'll even give you credit for scheduling BYU as the Cougars are usually pretty good.

Alabama does not have the same luxury. We are handed eight games, the site and the date and told to go find four opponents. We usually schedule three mediocre to bad teams that need a payday and one good OOC team. There's no need to do otherwise when the difference in winning your division & finishing fourth is two plays.

It is not our fault that Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, and Auburn were terrible. Yet even if those were 7-8 win teams we would have still beaten each by 20 points. None of those games was even close. Plus we played Michigan in the opener - when everyone is rusty - and put 41 points on them. We gave up 2 bombs with a new secondary for a TD.

Citing stats is one thing, but the schedule argument won't cut it. Keep in mind that whoever wins tomorrow will have beaten a better opponent with 7 days notice than anyone the Irish beat this year.

That said - lets not get ahead of ourselves. The Tide better show up with The Process if we want to win Saturday.
 

mrusso

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Alabama and Georgia have played four common opponents

Tenn, Florida Atlantic, Ole Miss, and Auburn


Ga beat Tenn 51-44
Alabama beat Tenn 44-13

Ga beat Florida Atlantic 56-20
Alabama beat Florida Atlantic 40-7

Ga beat Ole Miss 37-10
Alabama beat Ole Miss 33-14

Ga beat Auburn 38-0
Alabama beat Auburn 49-0

Georgia scored 182 points while surrendering 74 points
Alabama scored 166 points while surrendering 34 points

So adding it all up Ga beat these teams with a point differential of 108 or by 27 points per game
Alabama beat them with a point differential of 132 or by 33 points per game

Alabama and ND have only one common opponent, Michigan
Alabama defeated Michigan 41-14 ND defeated Michigan 13-6

Georgia and ND do not have any common opponents.
Would love to see these stats with the amount of time 2nd/3rd string was in.
 

cbi1972

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Re-think what? Bottom line even if you take out Alabama's FCS opponent your opponents' records is 69-62. The record of the teams Alabama beat (FCS game removed)is 59-62.....ND's opponents record 82-60, Record of teams ND beat 40-32.

Florida from the SEC has played the toughest schedule not Alabama or Georgia.
For top teams, there is little difference between playing a bad team and a mediocre team as far as winning percentage goes. A top team should beat middle-of-the-pack and bottom-feeding BCS teams as well as any FCS teams on the schedule. However, if you LOSE to those teams, or win with spurious calls, or just look bad winning, then the perception is that you may not really be that good. Notre Dame, while they have won every game, has looked bad winning against several opponents. The top SEC teams have each lost games, but only against other good SEC teams. Georgia has looked bad against SC and Kentucky, Florida has looked bad against Georgia and LA-Lafayette, and LSU has looked bad against Towson and Auburn. Alabama has looked vulnerable in two games against good teams, losing one, but has NEVER looked bad. That is why Alabama is still favored to win.

For an objective ranking of how teams look, just look at Sagarin's predictor, in which Bama is #1, Oregon is #2, Notre Dame is #3, and Georgia is #8.
 
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Maverick2

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ND doesn't have any comparison, because it doesn't have a conference. Several of the "bowl eligible" teams you refer to are Big10 (14) teams, and the best one of those ND played, Bama beat 42-14.
Look, I hear what you are saying but the bottom line is out of the strong teams in the SEC Florida is the only one who has played a tougher schedule than ND. ND's first 9 opponents are all bowl eligible. And the composite records are the composite records of the opponents.


They went into Norman to play one of the top offenses in the country averaging over 35 points per game, with one of the top QB's in the country. They beat them 30-13 and held them to 15 yards rushing.


ND is one of only 3 teams in the FBS that averaged over 200 yards rushing per game while giving up less than 100 yards rushing per game. The other two are Alabama and Stanford (who ND beat, yes Taylor was stopped at the goal line)


ND's front 7 IMO IS the best in college FB. Their DB's are green but ND gets pressure and sacks WITHOUT blitzing. There front 7 are big, physical and fast. Whoever plays against Louis Nix ND's NG, is going to have their hands filled. These are not big slow kids from the midwest. They are players from Florida, Texas, Georgia. Tuitt is a freak at 6'5 305 lbs who actually looks like a LB, not an ounce of fat on him 12 sacks from his DE and he is also great against the run.


Alabama's OL will be the best ND has faced. ND's front 7 will be the best Alabama's OL will face.

I don't like giving Saban 5 weeks to prepare against a redshirt freshman QB, especially the way Saban is so good at disguising defenses. But Golson has been getting better and better each week, he is mobile and ND will move the ball. The problem ND has had is finishing off drives with TD's not FG's.


It will come down to the two things that ALWAYS determines who wins and loses

1) War in the trenches
2) Turnovers


ND will MORE than hold it's own in the trenches, IF Golson does not turn it over (he has thrown only 4 interceptions) ND can win against either team. If ND turns it over they will lose, and if they turn it over a lot they will lose by a lot. And the same will hold true for Alabama or Georgia
 

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