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  1. #27
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    Re: Objective Comparison of the Schedules and Stats of ND, Alabama, UGA

    Two things stand out to me in those stats. First, UGA's defense vs. Bama's offense. UGA gives up a ton of rushing yards, and Bama should be able to run down their throats. Two, ND's offense vs. Bama's defense. There is no way Notre Dame moves the ball consistently against Bama's defense. Looking good for Bama y'all, rtr.
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  3. #28
    BamaNation Hall of Fame CajunCrimson's Avatar
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    Re: Objective Comparison of the Schedules and Stats of ND, Alabama, UGA

    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick2 View Post
    Playing Navy or Pitt is a WHOLE lot tougher then playing Western Carolina, Western Kentucky, or Florida Atlantic. IF ND EVER played a team like that the media would CRUCIFY them....Those games ARE scrimmages. And if the the mighty LSU can struggle against "mighty" Towson State (12-10 victory) and Florida can struggle against that "juggernaut" Louisiana Lafayette (27-20) ND can "struggle" against ANY team on their schedule.

    These are kids not professionals so ANYTHING is possible.
    Western Kentucky is 7-5 and going bowling....while Pitt is 5-6 and lost to Youngstown State

    I think there is a misconception that playing teams in the Big East means that they are good teams -- yet, the Sun Belt may well be comparable to the Big East this year....as far as talent....and UL Lafayette is a pretty good ball team -- who is going bowling for the second year in a row......and have athletes....

    Just because it's a small southern school, don't kid yourself, some of these teams are better than you think they are.
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  4. #29
    BamaNation Hall of Fame GreatDanish's Avatar
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    Re: Objective Comparison of the Schedules and Stats of ND, Alabama, UGA

    I think, statistically, all of these teams are within a "margin of error" - meaning: looking at the numbers, there isn't a single team that stands out to be significantly better than another. It is going to boil down to who makes fewer mistakes and executes. I know that sounds cliche, but that's not the case against Auburn. We could make a lot of mistakes, not execute well, and still win. Even against LSU we could do that.

    A few additional statistics...

    Alabama is the only one of the three that has outscored each opponents' average scoring defense. Georgia only scored 7 against SC who averaged allowing 17.42. Notre Dame has done this four times - against Purdue, Michigan, Boston College, and USC.

    Alabama and Notre Dame have also held each opponent below their average scoring offense. Georgia has failed to do this 4 times - Buffalo, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Kentucky.

    We've outscored our opposing average scoring defenses by 47%. We've held our opponents to 31% of their average scoring offense, on average.
    Georgia outscored their opponents' average scoring defenses by 41% and held their opponents to 69% of their average scoring offenses, on average.
    Notre Dame - 15% more than their opponents' average SD, and hold opponents to 36% of average SO.

    So, relative to our opponents, on average, we have the best offense and the best defense of the three teams.

    However, it's so close, that one untimely fumble can easily undo any statistical advantage.

  5. #30
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    Re: Objective Comparison of the Schedules and Stats of ND, Alabama, UGA

    Absolutely... anyone underrating these Sun-Belt teams simply isn't watching as much college football as they think.

    The Sun-Belt already has wins over the SEC, ACC, C-USA, etc.

    Arkansas St. went on the road to Oregon and hung 34 points on the Ducks.

    UL-Monroe has wins over the SEC, and almost beat Baylor.

    Middle Tennessee went on the road to Georgia Tech (who's playing for the ACC title by the way) and dominated 'em.

    Troy almost beat Mississippi St. and Tennessee.

    Western Kentucky beat Kentucky.... Kentucky beat Kent St. 47-14... Kent St. is ranked #18 in the BCS I believe.



    I think many of these Sun-Belt teams are harder to beat than Pittsburgh. Underestimating some of these SEC "reject" recruits playing in the Sun-Belt is a big mistake.

  6. #31
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    Re: Objective Comparison of the Schedules and Stats of ND, Alabama, UGA

    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick2 View Post
    Playing Navy or Pitt is a WHOLE lot tougher then playing Western Carolina, Western Kentucky, or Florida Atlantic. IF ND EVER played a team like that the media would CRUCIFY them....Those games ARE scrimmages. And if the the mighty LSU can struggle against "mighty" Towson State (12-10 victory) and Florida can struggle against that "juggernaut" Louisiana Lafayette (27-20) ND can "struggle" against ANY team on their schedule.

    These are kids not professionals so ANYTHING is possible.
    I'd like to point out that neither LSU or Florida are in the NCG. Even so, Sagarin has ULL ranked #61 in his predictor rankings, vs Pittsburgh's #56. UF won by 7. ND won by 3. Is there a significant difference?

    As for Western Kentucky, they're ranked #76 and Bama didn't struggle with them, winning 35-0 while playing our twos and threes in the second half.

  7. #32
    FB Moderator Bamabuzzard's Avatar
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    Re: Objective Comparison of the Schedules and Stats of ND, Alabama, UGA

    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick2 View Post
    Well I think anyone looking at it objectively because numbers are numbers:

    1) ND has played a tougher schedule
    2) ND's defense MORE than stacks up
    3) ND's scoring offense lags behind the two SEC teams
    4) Alabama overall stats when you look at both sides of the ball are the best

    I think Notre Dame, or any non SEC team playing a SEC team in the BCSCG, is in a position that they have to put all those stats in action on the field when the big lights come on.

    Now, I'm not saying Notre Dame isn't worthy or won't go out and dog stomp whoever they play in Miami. But after 8 SEC BCS National Championships and in almost all of them having to hear the media play up the other teams offense to be "too strong" for the SEC team. SEC folks are tired of looking at stats. We really are. Go do it. I've grown tired of hearing how SEC defenses are "overrated" and how our offenses "suck" yet in 7 of the 8 national titles the opponent's offense has yet to dominate a single "overrated" SEC defense and their defenses have yet to be able to stop a single "overrated" SEC offense. I say 7 out of 8 because last year's game was two SEC teams. Notre Dame might very well win it all. Who knows at this point. But up to this point stats have proven no good for non-SEC teams going into the BCSNCG against SEC teams.
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  8. #33
    BamaNation All-American trenda's Avatar
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    Re: Objective Comparison of the Schedules and Stats of ND, Alabama, UGA

    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick2 View Post
    Playing Navy or Pitt is a WHOLE lot tougher then playing Western Carolina, Western Kentucky, or Florida Atlantic. IF ND EVER played a team like that the media would CRUCIFY them....Those games ARE scrimmages. And if the the mighty LSU can struggle against "mighty" Towson State (12-10 victory) and Florida can struggle against that "juggernaut" Louisiana Lafayette (27-20) ND can "struggle" against ANY team on their schedule.

    These are kids not professionals so ANYTHING is possible.
    Just going by the Sagarin ratings:
    #59 - Louisiana Monroe
    #61 - Louisiana Lafayette
    #66 - Pitt
    #73 - Navy
    #82 - Western KY
    #113 - Wake Forest
    #121 - Boston College
    #125 - Towson
    #127 - FL Atlantic
    #204 - Western Carolina

    You might want to re-think that, Mav.

    "Remember, boys, no points for second place!"
    Last edited by trenda; November 30th, 2012 at 11:17 AM.
    RTR


  9. #34
    BamaNation Hall of Fame selmaborntidefan's Avatar
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    Re: Objective Comparison of the Schedules and Stats of ND, Alabama, UGA

    Ok, let me apologize for how I came across. I see how it can be rude although not my intent. Mav, I do appreciate your perspective. Next time I'll try not to post late at night after a rough work day.
    :13

  10. #35
    BamaNation Hall of Fame selmaborntidefan's Avatar
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    Re: Objective Comparison of the Schedules and Stats of ND, Alabama, UGA

    Incidentally, I don't think anybody here could consider Notre Dame unworthy. If they had one loss - Florida should be ahead. But ND IS deserving & did what was required.
    :13

  11. #36
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    Re: Objective Comparison of the Schedules and Stats of ND, Alabama, UGA

    Quote Originally Posted by trenda View Post
    Just going by the Sagarin ratings:
    #59 - Louisiana Monroe
    #61 - Louisiana Lafayette
    #66 - Pitt
    #73 - Navy
    #82 - Western KY
    #113 - Wake Forest
    #121 - Boston College
    #125 - Towson
    #127 - FL Atlantic
    #204 - Western Carolina

    You might want to re-think that, Mav.

    "Remember, boys, no points for second place!"
    Re-think what? Bottom line even if you take out Alabama's FCS opponent your opponents' records is 69-62. The record of the teams Alabama beat (FCS game removed)is 59-62.....ND's opponents record 82-60, Record of teams ND beat 40-32.

    Florida from the SEC has played the toughest schedule not Alabama or Georgia.

  12. #37
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    Re: Objective Comparison of the Schedules and Stats of ND, Alabama, UGA

    Quote Originally Posted by trenda View Post
    Thanks for the stats, Mav; but how do these teams stack up against common opponents? Since we're looking at stats and all . . .
    Alabama and Georgia have played four common opponents

    Tenn, Florida Atlantic, Ole Miss, and Auburn


    Ga beat Tenn 51-44
    Alabama beat Tenn 44-13

    Ga beat Florida Atlantic 56-20
    Alabama beat Florida Atlantic 40-7

    Ga beat Ole Miss 37-10
    Alabama beat Ole Miss 33-14

    Ga beat Auburn 38-0
    Alabama beat Auburn 49-0

    Georgia scored 182 points while surrendering 74 points
    Alabama scored 166 points while surrendering 34 points

    So adding it all up Ga beat these teams with a point differential of 108 or by 27 points per game
    Alabama beat them with a point differential of 132 or by 33 points per game

    Alabama and ND have only one common opponent, Michigan
    Alabama defeated Michigan 41-14 ND defeated Michigan 13-6

    Georgia and ND do not have any common opponents.

  13. #38
    BamaNation Hall of Fame selmaborntidefan's Avatar
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    Re: Objective Comparison of the Schedules and Stats of ND, Alabama, UGA

    Mav,

    Your citations of the overall stats are fascinating. However, you are on less solid ground when it comes to schedule criticism. Keep in mind that ND is an independent and gets to choose whoever they want to play. This year was much better than most of the past 20. I'll even give you credit for scheduling BYU as the Cougars are usually pretty good.

    Alabama does not have the same luxury. We are handed eight games, the site and the date and told to go find four opponents. We usually schedule three mediocre to bad teams that need a payday and one good OOC team. There's no need to do otherwise when the difference in winning your division & finishing fourth is two plays.

    It is not our fault that Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, and Auburn were terrible. Yet even if those were 7-8 win teams we would have still beaten each by 20 points. None of those games was even close. Plus we played Michigan in the opener - when everyone is rusty - and put 41 points on them. We gave up 2 bombs with a new secondary for a TD.

    Citing stats is one thing, but the schedule argument won't cut it. Keep in mind that whoever wins tomorrow will have beaten a better opponent with 7 days notice than anyone the Irish beat this year.

    That said - lets not get ahead of ourselves. The Tide better show up with The Process if we want to win Saturday.
    :13

  14. #39
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    Re: Objective Comparison of the Schedules and Stats of ND, Alabama, UGA

    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick2 View Post
    Alabama and Georgia have played four common opponents

    Tenn, Florida Atlantic, Ole Miss, and Auburn


    Ga beat Tenn 51-44
    Alabama beat Tenn 44-13

    Ga beat Florida Atlantic 56-20
    Alabama beat Florida Atlantic 40-7

    Ga beat Ole Miss 37-10
    Alabama beat Ole Miss 33-14

    Ga beat Auburn 38-0
    Alabama beat Auburn 49-0

    Georgia scored 182 points while surrendering 74 points
    Alabama scored 166 points while surrendering 34 points

    So adding it all up Ga beat these teams with a point differential of 108 or by 27 points per game
    Alabama beat them with a point differential of 132 or by 33 points per game

    Alabama and ND have only one common opponent, Michigan
    Alabama defeated Michigan 41-14 ND defeated Michigan 13-6

    Georgia and ND do not have any common opponents.
    Would love to see these stats with the amount of time 2nd/3rd string was in.

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