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  1. #27
    BamaNation Hall of Fame CajunCrimson's Avatar
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    Re: Kirby Smart won't leave mentor Nick Saban until he has opportunity for success

    Quote Originally Posted by Bamabuzzard View Post
    LOL! Let's also remember that Saban recommended Houston Nutt to LSU as well. Just sayin....
    Maybe Nick was madder at LSU than we thought, lol!
    Raj: Excuse me, I can't be drinking, I'm about to make an important scientific discovery here!
    Howard:What? Galileo did his best work while drinking wine!
    Raj: How do you know that?
    Howard: He was Italian, it's a reasonable assumption.
    Raj: Dude, can you even open your mouth without saying a cultural stereotype?
    Howard: I'm sorry Galileo drank diet sprite!

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  3. #28
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    Re: Kirby Smart won't leave mentor Nick Saban until he has opportunity for success

    Two thoughts...First as the previous poster pointed out, the Georgia job not coming open kept Smart in Tuscaloosa. Thanks, Mark.

    Second...I formerly believed Alabama was not the spot for Head Coaching OJT. I now believe it's something of a a crapshoot whenever you hire a HC at a place like Alabama.

    Georgia, Oregon, Oklahoma and TCU have all had sustained success with HCs in their first HC job. Additionally, David Shaw is a newbie at Stanford, as are Charlie Strong at Louisville, and Will Muschamp at Florida.

    Before becoming the Prince of Los Angeles at USCw, Pete Carroll was a twice failed NFL HC.

    Before spectacularly flaming out in Tuscaloosa, Mike Price was a successful HC at a previously-woeful Washington State.

    Before folding under the pressure of a big-time program, Dennis Franchione was a highly successful HC at multiple places. We all know how that ended in a lonely press conference in College Station.

    And lest we get too hubristic, Gene Stallings was a twice-fired HC, one of those times being at his alma mater.

    Point of all this being, whereas I formerly thought previous HC experience was non-negotiable at a place like Alabama, I no longer think that way. There just isn't enough evidence to back it up.
    Last edited by 4Q Basket Case; November 30th, 2012 at 09:24 PM.
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  4. #29
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    Re: Kirby Smart won't leave mentor Nick Saban until he has opportunity for success

    In agreeing with the above poster, wanted to add that having 21 century head coaching skills, like speaking abilities, motivational, organizational, character can all be seen in a coordinator. It's not a crapshoot.

  5. #30
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    Re: Kirby Smart won't leave mentor Nick Saban until he has opportunity for success

    Quote Originally Posted by 4Q Basket Case View Post
    Georgia, Oregon, Oklahoma and TCU have all had sustained success with HCs in their first HC job. Additionally, David Shaw is a newbie at Stanford, as are Charlie Strong at Louisville, and Will Muschamp at Florida.
    Those are outliers. For every assistant that makes that has sucess as a first time HC at an elite program, there are 10 that flamed out.

    Also, several of the programs you mentioned aren't top-tier jobs. TCU and Louisville certainly aren't - they're exactly the HC training grounds that everyone is referring to. The jury is certainly still out on Muschamp as well.

    There is plenty of evidence to back up the assertion that hiring a first time head coach at an elite program is a huge risk.
    Last edited by JeffAtlanta; December 1st, 2012 at 10:03 AM.

  6. #31
    BamaNation Hall of Fame TommyMac's Avatar
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    Re: Kirby Smart won't leave mentor Nick Saban until he has opportunity for success

    Quote Originally Posted by twofbyc View Post
    JMO, but....I think KS should go to USM.
    He couldn't do anything but improve the program
    He has a lot of talent to draw from
    Other coaches have had success at USM
    If he went there, he would be there until CNS retires, thereby....
    Coming back to Bama

    I know, I can dream...

    I doubt he'd be willing to take the pay cut. Besides, he can do a lot better than USM. They face an uncertain future with the four super conference concept looming. USM has a dinky little stadium and offers nothing in the way of a TV market.
    "I'm just a simple plowhand from Arkansas, but I've learned over the years how to hold a team together, how to lift some men up, how to calm others down, until finally they've got one heartbeat, together, a team."

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  7. #32
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    Re: Kirby Smart won't leave mentor Nick Saban until he has opportunity for success

    Quote Originally Posted by TommyMac View Post
    I doubt he'd be willing to take the pay cut. Besides, he can do a lot better than USM.
    Yeah, I see KS going to a school more on the level of a Michigan State, Colorado or Clemson. Going to some small school has no upside. He doesn't have to prove that he can build a program from nothing, just that he can do well at a big program.

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    Re: Kirby Smart won't leave mentor Nick Saban until he has opportunity for success

    Quote Originally Posted by JeffAtlanta View Post
    Yeah, I see KS going to a school more on the level of a Michigan State, Colorado or Clemson. Going to some small school has no upside. He doesn't have to prove that he can build a program from nothing, just that he can do well at a big program.
    I understand and agree with what you are saying, just wanted to add that I believe Kirby stays in the South and Colorado is not a good job. His peers, Muchump and Dumbo and his mentor migrated here. Colorado is not really that great of a job. One coach made it look that way, another with a pristine reputation left in disc race trying to win, and the last went from a young hot shot to washed up in a few seasons. It's a Keith Jackson qualified black hole if you ask me. Plus Coach Mac owns the state!

  9. #34
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    Re: Kirby Smart won't leave mentor Nick Saban until he has opportunity for success

    Quote Originally Posted by JeffAtlanta View Post
    Those are outliers. For every assistant that makes that has sucess as a first time HC at an elite program, there are 10 that flamed out.

    Also, several of the programs you mentioned aren't top-tier jobs. TCU and Louisville certainly aren't - they're exactly the HC training grounds that everyone is referring to. The jury is certainly still out on Muschamp as well.

    There is plenty of evidence to back up the assertion that hiring a first time head coach at an elite program is a huge risk.
    Don't know how many you have to have before they stop being outliers. Right now, in the BCS Top 20, at least nine of the top 14 (nearly two-thirds) are at their first HC job, including those ranked 3,4,5,6, and 8:

    #3 Georgia with Mark Richt
    #4 Florida with Will Muschamp
    #5 Orebon with Chip Kelly
    #6 K-State with Bill Snyder (of course, he's been there since 1089, with a hiatus of a few years somewhere in there)
    #8 Stanford with David Shaw
    #11 Oklahoma with Bob Stoops
    #12 Nebraska with Bo Pellini
    #13 Florida State with Jimbo Fisher
    #14 Clemson with Dabo Swinney

    Plus, Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State is at #23, and was a whisker from the BCSNCG last year.

    And that doesn't count Gary Patterson at TCU, who's having an off year after a lot of success in 2011 and earlier.

    Mike Price and Dennis Franchione had successful HC tenures elsewhere and ended badly due to personality issues.

    Howard Schnellenberger drank himself out of the Oklahoma job after turning Louisville around and winning an NC at Miami when they were about to shut the program down for lack of success on the field.

    The hugely successful Marshall coach (name escapes me at the moment) flamed out at Georgia, and is now facing prison time for fraud.

    Bobby Petrino is a classic example of a hugely talented coach whose personal character issues make him a huge risk -- does a leopard ever really change his spots?

    My whole point is that there's a lot of risk whenever you hiring a new coach, almost no matter his background. We got a HUGE break when the sun and moon and stars lined up just right and we had an essentially riskless home run hire with Saban.

    You're absolutely correct when you say there are a lot of first-time HCs who have fallen on their faces (see Mike Dubose, Mike Shula, Ron Zook and Sylvester Croom). But there are also a lot of previously-successful HCs who failed at a new gig (Mike Price and Dennis Franchione, to name just two).

    I don't really understand why, but it seems that in recent years there have been a lot of highly successful first time HCs. With that track record, I just no longer see previous HC experience as the absolute requirement I once did. Experience is good, but it's no guarantee of success. Lack of experience is something to overcome, but it doesn't guarantee failure.
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  10. #35
    BamaNation First Team 1Dawn's Avatar
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    Re: Kirby Smart won't leave mentor Nick Saban until he has opportunity for success

    ABC Birmingham 33/40 reporting tonight that Kirby Smart is interviewing with Auburn this coming week. DO NOT WANT TO HEAR THIS NEWS!

  11. #36
    BamaNation First Team braggtd's Avatar
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    Re: Kirby Smart won't leave mentor Nick Saban until he has opportunity for success

    Wow, this probably has been posted but I didn't see it.

    http://auburn.247sports.com/Article/...-search-104660

    You think he is "humoring" them or would he really take this job? Probably a pretty good gig overall as long as they don't get in trouble with the investigations.

  12. #37
    BamaNation First Team braggtd's Avatar
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    Re: Kirby Smart won't leave mentor Nick Saban until he has opportunity for success

    Quote Originally Posted by 1Dawn View Post
    ABC Birmingham 33/40 reporting tonight that Kirby Smart is interviewing with Auburn this coming week. DO NOT WANT TO HEAR THIS NEWS!
    LOL, you beat me to it by 2 minutes. I just saw the same thing here:

    http://auburn.247sports.com/Article/...-search-104660

  13. #38
    BamaNation Hall of Fame Jessica4Bama's Avatar
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    Re: Kirby Smart won't leave mentor Nick Saban until he has opportunity for success

    I highly doubt he would go there, but you never know.
    So we fix our eyes not on what is seen, but on what is unseen, since what is seen is temporary, but what is unseen is eternal. - 2 Corinthians 4:18

  14. #39
    BamaNation First Team 1Dawn's Avatar
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    Re: Kirby Smart won't leave mentor Nick Saban until he has opportunity for success

    I hope it just gets him a raise here only. I know he will take a head coaching job one day, but just DO NOT want him to go to Auburn, of all places. It just seems so wrong....

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