Link: Kirby Smart won't leave mentor Nick Saban until he has opportunity for success

CapstoneTider

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We're getting to the same issue as when Bear was nearing retirement. If I remember correctly, Bear supported Gene Stallings strongly, but it took a decade (a bit less) to give GS a chance and he succeeded. I'd give a lot of consideration to what CNS recommends; if its CKS, I'd say we gamble on an unproven HC; if he recommends Bobo, then I'd say go after him (again unproven as HC). The AD doesn't see a staff work every day like CNS does. The recommendation of an elite HC should carry significant weight imho.
I strongly agree. If Coach Saban end up with a Dynasty, who else would you trust more to choose the next coach?

Remember Muchamp and Jimbo Fisher (his peers) went straight from assistant to big time HC, if they are still at their schools when Coach Saban retires, not giving it to Coach Smart would be a huge mistake. Dubose should have no bearing on the hire at all. Coach Stallings really did not do much mentoring imo.....he has no HC tree.
 

twofbyc

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Good article! Maybe CKS will wait on CNS to retire :cool2:
It would be nice...but it ain't gonna happen. I'd rather see him go to a non-contender in the tank ATM (but who has fielded decent teams in years past) than I would see him go to a former perennial contender who is currently in the tank. If the former happens, he has a chance to build his resume and gain valuable experience (and there ain't no experience like actually "doing it"), thereby looking to move up when CNS retires; if the latter happens, and he turns around a perennial contender who can afford to pay him big bucks, he'll never come back to Bama.
IMO, he will not stay at Bama until CNS retires...unless CNS retires within the next two years.
 

cbi1972

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I believe facing Mark Richt in the SEC championship has extended Kirby Smart's career at Alabama by a few years. Thanks, Mark!
 

4Q Basket Case

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Two thoughts...First as the previous poster pointed out, the Georgia job not coming open kept Smart in Tuscaloosa. Thanks, Mark.

Second...I formerly believed Alabama was not the spot for Head Coaching OJT. I now believe it's something of a a crapshoot whenever you hire a HC at a place like Alabama.

Georgia, Oregon, Oklahoma and TCU have all had sustained success with HCs in their first HC job. Additionally, David Shaw is a newbie at Stanford, as are Charlie Strong at Louisville, and Will Muschamp at Florida.

Before becoming the Prince of Los Angeles at USCw, Pete Carroll was a twice failed NFL HC.

Before spectacularly flaming out in Tuscaloosa, Mike Price was a successful HC at a previously-woeful Washington State.

Before folding under the pressure of a big-time program, Dennis Franchione was a highly successful HC at multiple places. We all know how that ended in a lonely press conference in College Station.

And lest we get too hubristic, Gene Stallings was a twice-fired HC, one of those times being at his alma mater.

Point of all this being, whereas I formerly thought previous HC experience was non-negotiable at a place like Alabama, I no longer think that way. There just isn't enough evidence to back it up.
 
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CapstoneTider

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In agreeing with the above poster, wanted to add that having 21 century head coaching skills, like speaking abilities, motivational, organizational, character can all be seen in a coordinator. It's not a crapshoot.
 

JeffAtlanta

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Georgia, Oregon, Oklahoma and TCU have all had sustained success with HCs in their first HC job. Additionally, David Shaw is a newbie at Stanford, as are Charlie Strong at Louisville, and Will Muschamp at Florida.
Those are outliers. For every assistant that makes that has sucess as a first time HC at an elite program, there are 10 that flamed out.

Also, several of the programs you mentioned aren't top-tier jobs. TCU and Louisville certainly aren't - they're exactly the HC training grounds that everyone is referring to. The jury is certainly still out on Muschamp as well.

There is plenty of evidence to back up the assertion that hiring a first time head coach at an elite program is a huge risk.
 
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TommyMac

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JMO, but....I think KS should go to USM.
He couldn't do anything but improve the program
He has a lot of talent to draw from
Other coaches have had success at USM
If he went there, he would be there until CNS retires, thereby....
Coming back to Bama

I know, I can dream... :cool:

I doubt he'd be willing to take the pay cut. Besides, he can do a lot better than USM. They face an uncertain future with the four super conference concept looming. USM has a dinky little stadium and offers nothing in the way of a TV market.
 

JeffAtlanta

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I doubt he'd be willing to take the pay cut. Besides, he can do a lot better than USM.
Yeah, I see KS going to a school more on the level of a Michigan State, Colorado or Clemson. Going to some small school has no upside. He doesn't have to prove that he can build a program from nothing, just that he can do well at a big program.
 

CapstoneTider

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Yeah, I see KS going to a school more on the level of a Michigan State, Colorado or Clemson. Going to some small school has no upside. He doesn't have to prove that he can build a program from nothing, just that he can do well at a big program.
I understand and agree with what you are saying, just wanted to add that I believe Kirby stays in the South and Colorado is not a good job. His peers, Muchump and Dumbo and his mentor migrated here. Colorado is not really that great of a job. One coach made it look that way, another with a pristine reputation left in disc race trying to win, and the last went from a young hot shot to washed up in a few seasons. It's a Keith Jackson qualified black hole if you ask me. Plus Coach Mac owns the state!
 

4Q Basket Case

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Those are outliers. For every assistant that makes that has sucess as a first time HC at an elite program, there are 10 that flamed out.

Also, several of the programs you mentioned aren't top-tier jobs. TCU and Louisville certainly aren't - they're exactly the HC training grounds that everyone is referring to. The jury is certainly still out on Muschamp as well.

There is plenty of evidence to back up the assertion that hiring a first time head coach at an elite program is a huge risk.
Don't know how many you have to have before they stop being outliers. Right now, in the BCS Top 20, at least nine of the top 14 (nearly two-thirds) are at their first HC job, including those ranked 3,4,5,6, and 8:

#3 Georgia with Mark Richt
#4 Florida with Will Muschamp
#5 Orebon with Chip Kelly
#6 K-State with Bill Snyder (of course, he's been there since 1089, with a hiatus of a few years somewhere in there)
#8 Stanford with David Shaw
#11 Oklahoma with Bob Stoops
#12 Nebraska with Bo Pellini
#13 Florida State with Jimbo Fisher
#14 Clemson with Dabo Swinney

Plus, Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State is at #23, and was a whisker from the BCSNCG last year.

And that doesn't count Gary Patterson at TCU, who's having an off year after a lot of success in 2011 and earlier.

Mike Price and Dennis Franchione had successful HC tenures elsewhere and ended badly due to personality issues.

Howard Schnellenberger drank himself out of the Oklahoma job after turning Louisville around and winning an NC at Miami when they were about to shut the program down for lack of success on the field.

The hugely successful Marshall coach (name escapes me at the moment) flamed out at Georgia, and is now facing prison time for fraud.

Bobby Petrino is a classic example of a hugely talented coach whose personal character issues make him a huge risk -- does a leopard ever really change his spots?

My whole point is that there's a lot of risk whenever you hiring a new coach, almost no matter his background. We got a HUGE break when the sun and moon and stars lined up just right and we had an essentially riskless home run hire with Saban.

You're absolutely correct when you say there are a lot of first-time HCs who have fallen on their faces (see Mike Dubose, Mike Shula, Ron Zook and Sylvester Croom). But there are also a lot of previously-successful HCs who failed at a new gig (Mike Price and Dennis Franchione, to name just two).

I don't really understand why, but it seems that in recent years there have been a lot of highly successful first time HCs. With that track record, I just no longer see previous HC experience as the absolute requirement I once did. Experience is good, but it's no guarantee of success. Lack of experience is something to overcome, but it doesn't guarantee failure.
 

1Dawn

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ABC Birmingham 33/40 reporting tonight that Kirby Smart is interviewing with Auburn this coming week. DO NOT WANT TO HEAR THIS NEWS!
 

1Dawn

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I hope it just gets him a raise here only. I know he will take a head coaching job one day, but just DO NOT want him to go to Auburn, of all places. It just seems so wrong....
 

MOAN

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He would be the perfect hire for Auburn. Recruiting wise, coaching wise and with their situation I don't think they will attract anyone that is already in a big time position and successful to come and compete against Nick Saban in Alabama and the SEC. If they are "smart", pun intended, they will make him a very wealthy man.

The only thing I think he should be aware of and to contemplate before going there is will he be given full reigns of the team to do as he see's fit. I am sure coach Saban will give him the right advice and sure hope he doesn't go there. Would remind me of how coach Bryant didn't like seeing Pat Dye going to Auburn. But ultimately it will be his decision and where his ego lies will probably determine that.
 

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