There has been a lot of discussion about what match-ups are most important and which players on which defense will step up and make plays. Many people, rightfully so, spend a lot of time looking at the OL/DL match-ups trying to give an advantage to either team on each side of the line. However, the one thing that pretty much everyone is saying about every one of these match-ups is this: the battles are all close and the advantages are slim. When you've got two very good, very talented, seemingly very equal teams then it usually comes down to which defense does a better job of shutting down or containing the other team's offense. So, the real question then is "which offense will be able to step up to the plate and handle what the other defense throws at it?"
And, let's be honest --- this year, especially, both of these offenses run through and heavily depend on one player: the Quarterback.
You can talk about all the other match-ups all you want and you'll probably make some very good points. At the end of the day, though, this game - assuming both teams show up to play from the opening whistle - will most likely be decided by which Quarterback is able to better lead his offense, to at times put the game on his shoulders and come through on third and long to extend drives, to do a better job of scoring Touchdowns instead of Field Goals in the Red Zone, and is able to avoid making the kinds of mistakes that can cost his team the game.
So, which Quarterback fits that bill?
Most of the time you can get a fairly quick answer to that question by comparing the Quarterback's Passer Efficiency Rating. In this case, that would be:
Aaron Murray: 177.15
AJ McCarron: 176.26
Well, that didn't really answer much because A) they're razor close and B) they're number one and number two in the nation at that stat, respectively. Beyond that you would typically look at their overal resume, the quality of defenses they faced, and how they performed in big games. Well, they both played well pretty much throughout the season playing in the SEC. They faced SEC defenses throughout the year. They were both 1-1 in their two biggest games of the year. No matter how you slice it, it's razor close.
I normally do these type of analyses on [primarily] a team versus a team and often a unit versus a unit but rarely even a level versus level - never a player versus a player. To answer this question, though, we'll really just need look at these two Quarterbacks, comparing their performances only - as opposed to the entire team's - to the defenses they faced compared to what they are about to face. First, here are three sets of stats showing a comparison of AJ McCarron and Aaron Murray using several standard, pertinent Split Stats, Situational Stats, and Opponent Specific Stats.
And, let's be honest --- this year, especially, both of these offenses run through and heavily depend on one player: the Quarterback.
You can talk about all the other match-ups all you want and you'll probably make some very good points. At the end of the day, though, this game - assuming both teams show up to play from the opening whistle - will most likely be decided by which Quarterback is able to better lead his offense, to at times put the game on his shoulders and come through on third and long to extend drives, to do a better job of scoring Touchdowns instead of Field Goals in the Red Zone, and is able to avoid making the kinds of mistakes that can cost his team the game.
So, which Quarterback fits that bill?
Most of the time you can get a fairly quick answer to that question by comparing the Quarterback's Passer Efficiency Rating. In this case, that would be:
Aaron Murray: 177.15
AJ McCarron: 176.26
Well, that didn't really answer much because A) they're razor close and B) they're number one and number two in the nation at that stat, respectively. Beyond that you would typically look at their overal resume, the quality of defenses they faced, and how they performed in big games. Well, they both played well pretty much throughout the season playing in the SEC. They faced SEC defenses throughout the year. They were both 1-1 in their two biggest games of the year. No matter how you slice it, it's razor close.
I normally do these type of analyses on [primarily] a team versus a team and often a unit versus a unit but rarely even a level versus level - never a player versus a player. To answer this question, though, we'll really just need look at these two Quarterbacks, comparing their performances only - as opposed to the entire team's - to the defenses they faced compared to what they are about to face. First, here are three sets of stats showing a comparison of AJ McCarron and Aaron Murray using several standard, pertinent Split Stats, Situational Stats, and Opponent Specific Stats.
Split Stats |