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  1. #1

    Have Bama players value been inflated in these past few drafts? Good and Bad.

    Have Bama players value been inflated in these past few drafts? Good and Bad. Good because it helps in recruiting and makes players dreams come true, bad, it can be a nightmare balancing recruiting with who might leave early. Example, AJ leaving early would leave a big gap that would not exist the following year.

    My observations suggest to me that synergy with other players, the coach Saban factor, and coach Smart on the sidelines has inflated the value of many drafts picks the last 3 years, and that a few underclassman would have been better off with another year. I am not trying to be critical, my main point is that the early exodus of Juniors being inflated has hurt the team. Imagine our defense with Donta' and Kilpatrick this year, instead we were the No Name defense (who kicked butt)? The suggestions of AJ leaving early seemed a little over the top to me, and I now believe he will stay. He needs another year for his development! Donta' and Dre' may be the exception though.

    It is well known that it is harder for a player on a losing team to get the attention of those on a dominating team, and I believe this is what helped with some of the inflation. I am only suggesting that some players were either overrated, or where rated too high too soon. Or best linebacker in the NFL is still one from the Fran-Shula era and was vastly underrated in Demarco Ryans.....a second round pick with 2 pro bowls. No doubt he would have been a top 5 pick on a coach Saban team.

    My predictions is that we will not see nearly as many early departures as we have the past 3 years. Before coach Saban we had maybe 5 players leave early total. Seems like Chris Samuels, Dwayne Rudd, Saleem Rasheed and maybe 2 more. But very rare.

    This is not a knock on coach saban but a compliment for getting the most out of his players and maybe making them appear better through synergy than individuals.

    Just my opinion. We should start seeing less juniors leave early in the 2nd half of the Coach era.

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  3. #2
    BamaNation Hall of Fame cbi1972's Avatar
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    Re: Have Bama players value been inflated in these past few drafts? Good and Bad.

    In the NFL, everybody has talent. The ones with the most desire, drive, and injury luck to go with that talent are the ones that succeed in the long term.

    As an aside, I was watching NFL Sunday night at a sports bar, and saw Andre Smith playing well on a drive to give the Bengals the win over the Chargers. Every play it looked like he was about to get beat, but he blocked his guy just long enough for Andy Dalton to get the ball off. After Andre's early work ethic issues and injury bug, it looks like he's gotten things together, and hopefully will keep it up.

    Seconds later, I saw Trent being Trent, busting into the end zone against the Raiders for his 7th TD.
    Audemus jura nostra defendere
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  4. #3

    Re: Have Bama players value been inflated in these past few drafts? Good and Bad.

    Saban gets pretty darn close to 100% of a player's potential.

    Once they get to the NFL, that 'percentage of potential performance' will inevitably drop. As you say, it's more of a credit to Saban's coaching than a criticism of the players.

  5. #4

    Re: Have Bama players value been inflated in these past few drafts? Good and Bad.

    I think the answer here is largely yes. And to an extent, I think that draft prospects from top college programs are always a bit overvalued based on that alone.

  6. #5

    Re: Have Bama players value been inflated in these past few drafts? Good and Bad.

    The NFL is a crap shoot. All you can really hope for is a real chance to play. Saban gives his players that chance. What they accomplish when they get that opportunity depends as much on luck as it does talent, IMO. The NFL is a game in which every player is immensely talented. Hard to differentiate yourself on that stage before you are hurt or replaced by someone younger/cheaper.

  7. #6
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    Re: Have Bama players value been inflated in these past few drafts? Good and Bad.

    Quote Originally Posted by cbi1972 View Post
    In the NFL, everybody has talent. The ones with the most desire, drive, and injury luck to go with that talent are the ones that succeed in the long term.

    As an aside, I was watching NFL Sunday night at a sports bar, and saw Andre Smith playing well on a drive to give the Bengals the win over the Chargers. Every play it looked like he was about to get beat, but he blocked his guy just long enough for Andy Dalton to get the ball off. After Andre's early work ethic issues and injury bug, it looks like he's gotten things together, and hopefully will keep it up.

    Seconds later, I saw Trent being Trent, busting into the end zone against the Raiders for his 7th TD.
    Yes Trent has played well and I think most of us who really study the team can predict the sure fire players. You listed the two most obvious along with Julio imo. A dominating left tackle in the SEC will be a dominating left tackle in the NFL 90% of the time. Trent is a prototype for the position and his strength puts him over the top. Julio was an absolute sure fire pick. Still believe overall, most players have been overvalued, maybe more than with any team. Shoot me!

    My reason for posting is how the inflation to underclassman can possible hurt them and makes it difficult for the coaches.

    I forgot to add Keith McCants. He was the 1st player I remember leaving early and times were so differnt back then. It was panned big time with the education angle, and times have changed big time in that area with opinion.Needless to say he and Rasheed made mistakes.
    Last edited by CapstoneTider; December 3rd, 2012 at 10:23 AM.

  8. #7

    Re: Have Bama players value been inflated in these past few drafts? Good and Bad.

    watching steelers/ravens last night i was sort of thinking the same thing...actually that maybe nfl teams will de-value Tide players a bit. You've got Ro McClain getting arrested and now suspended from Oakland and he's heading toward bust status for a 1st rounder unless he gets off the Raiders ASAP...Cody isn't playing much at all in Baltimore...Andre Smith is in year 4 with no pro bowl despite being 6th overall pick

    then again you've got TR, Julio, Upshaw, Barron, and Hightower playing well so Tide players, percentage-wise, are probably on same level as the USC and Okla guys that get taken in first two rounds....1/3 not playing to their draft status, 2/3 doing just fine

  9. #8
    BamaNation Hall of Fame cbi1972's Avatar
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    Re: Have Bama players value been inflated in these past few drafts? Good and Bad.

    Quote Originally Posted by CapstoneTider View Post
    Yes Trent has played well and I think most of us who really study the team can predict the sure fire players. You listed the two most obvious along with Julio imo. A dominating left tackle in the SEC will be a dominating left tackle in the NFL 90% of the time. Trent is a prototype for the position and his strength puts him over the top. Julio was an absolute sure fire pick. Still believe overall, most players have been overvalued, maybe more than with any team. Shoot me!

    My only reason for posting this was in regards to players leaving early that maybe should have stayed, and the difficulty that must bring to the coaches.
    Andre was playing on the right side Sunday. Took me a little while to find him, but since he still wears #71 with the sagging belly I found him
    Audemus jura nostra defendere
    "When a loaf of bread looks like a banquet, I've no right buying tobacco. " - Grandpa Joe

  10. #9
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    Re: Have Bama players value been inflated in these past few drafts? Good and Bad.

    Quote Originally Posted by cbi1972 View Post
    Andre was playing on the right side Sunday. Took me a little while to find him, but since he still wears #71 with the sagging belly I found him
    I thought he would be as good as Samuels, but Chris was just an overachiever. He was a 3 star recruit and made Pro Bowls. He wasn't even heavily recruited until his senior year. You just never know. But Andre has more physical gifts and wiil have a long career. Will always remember the houndstooth hat on signing day.

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    Re: Have Bama players value been inflated in these past few drafts? Good and Bad.

    Hightower has done well early, Upshaw looks like he'll have a role for the Ravens, Richardson looks like he'll be an All-Pro quality back, and Mark Barron is starting on one of the overachieving teams in the league this season. Kirkpatrick hasn't done well but of the top guys last year are all looking good.

    Of guys that got drafted in the recent past, McClain had a good year last year but the wheels have fallen off for him. He could still be a good player, I just don't think he has his head in the game. I bet he'll get cut and have to resurrect his career. Smith has kind of resurrected his career though probably not at the levels you think a top lineman would achieve. He struggled with injuries and fitness early but he's started the last two seasons. Kareem Jackson hasn't been a shutdown corner but he's improved to the point that he can hold his own in coverage. James Carpenter is starting at LG for the Seahawks and doing pretty well. Mike Johnson hasn't started often but the Falcons have a pretty veteran OL. Cody has really done a lot of what he did at Alabama: plays 2 downs and clogs the A gaps.

    On the balance, I think most of our recent draft picks have been solid pros. Not every guy is going to be a pro-bowler and a star on his team. McClain is the only one that is failing a few years into his career. Kirkpatrick is struggling but Smith is there to guide him on sticking to the grind and figuring it out.

  12. #11
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    Re: Have Bama players value been inflated in these past few drafts? Good and Bad.

    I agree that they have given the benefit of doubt being that they were on a dominant team here. OTOH, nobody has been an all-out bust yet, either. If Rolando and Mark were on other teams, I believe they could be successful. Time will tell whether they end up being considered as busts. Rolando's biggest problem is between his ears and I think Mark's is being a Saint. We still have Kareem Jackson, Deaderick, Arenas, Andre, Rashad Johnson, Antoine Caldwell, Mike Johnson, James Carpenter, and GMac out there earning a living in the NFL, and Julio, Trent, Barron, and Dont'a have the opportunity to be stars. Upshaw and Dre could get there, too.

  13. #12

    Re: Have Bama players value been inflated in these past few drafts? Good and Bad.

    CNS's system surrounds his players with accountability and those who need it the most, once they get to the NFL, will certainly miss what they had at UA: See Ro McClain as case in point.

    But the ones who are already driven and disciplined by nature or nurture before they get to Bama will probably have fewer problems: See Julio and Mark Ingram

  14. #13
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    Re: Have Bama players value been inflated in these past few drafts? Good and Bad.

    Quote Originally Posted by TideFan in AU View Post
    I agree that they have given the benefit of doubt being that they were on a dominant team here. OTOH, nobody has been an all-out bust yet, either. If Rolando and Mark were on other teams, I believe they could be successful. Time will tell whether they end up being considered as busts. Rolando's biggest problem is between his ears and I think Mark's is being a Saint. We still have Kareem Jackson, Deaderick, Arenas, Andre, Rashad Johnson, Antoine Caldwell, Mike Johnson, James Carpenter, and GMac out there earning a living in the NFL, and Julio, Trent, Barron, and Dont'a have the opportunity to be stars. Upshaw and Dre could get there, too.
    No one is talking about being a bust, but meeting expectation of the draft position, and you can name quit a few that have not. This all goes back to if some of the players could have used another year, and I think so, and I believe we will see a cooling down of underclassman getting drafted due to a good chunck of the players dipping below expectations for the draft position. Not a bust, or someone that's not going to have a good career. Just a little stock inflation due to the Sabanator, synergy and Coach Smart's wisdom from the sidelines. Having players in the right set is pretty important to making plays

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