A BCSCG statistical snippet: Why Notre Dame's Rushing Defense ranking is misleading..

skrayper77

All-American
Sep 4, 2003
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We commit to our power running game and kick their rears with the play action, like we did Georgia.
 

bamafaninOhiO

All-American
May 11, 2010
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Another thing to mention is that Saban is undefeated in National Championship games, and i just don't see that streak ending. I'd much rather be facing Notre Dame than Oregon, Kansas State, LSU, Texas A & M, or Stanford.
Absolutely agree, of the teams we could have faced (Notre Dame/oregon/Kansas State), Notre Dame is the matchup that bests suits our team.
 

Rolltide_PA

1st Team
Jul 31, 2011
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certainly we're going to have to run the ball effectively. if we can't run and are forced to pass then that ND sack machine can get going and tee off on our relatively pedestrian pass protection.

one thing to keep in mind....ND have a RS Frosh qb. No freshman (RS or true) have won a title since Jamelle Holieway in 1985. That brings up the 2nd big point (our running game being the #1 key) which is confusing their RS Frosh QB. In nearly every game in the past several years that we lost or even played close it was the opponent's QB having a truly memorable effort....Murray, Mettenberger, Garcia, sCam, Manziel, Tebow. Basically the opponent's QB always has to have a great game to even keep within a dozen points. I think that'll be the case on Jan 7. Manziel proved that a RS Frosh can do it but I don't think anyone is putting Golston in Johnny Manziel's class yet ;)
 

Bamabuzzard

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Aug 15, 2004
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certainly we're going to have to run the ball effectively. if we can't run and are forced to pass then that ND sack machine can get going and tee off on our relatively pedestrian pass protection.

one thing to keep in mind....ND have a RS Frosh qb. No freshman (RS or true) have won a title since Jamelle Holieway in 1985. That brings up the 2nd big point (our running game being the #1 key) which is confusing their RS Frosh QB. In nearly every game in the past several years that we lost or even played close it was the opponent's QB having a truly memorable effort....Murray, Mettenberger, Garcia, sCam, Manziel, Tebow. Basically the opponent's QB always has to have a great game to even keep within a dozen points. I think that'll be the case on Jan 7. Manziel proved that a RS Frosh can do it but I don't think anyone is putting Golston in Johnny Manziel's class yet ;)
I've come to expect key players to have their best performances against us. Simply because we are the team with the target on our back. It is the price for being on top. Teams, fanbases etc. get up for us. WAAAAY UP!!! So I fully expect their freshman quarterback to play lights out. But I also expect our staff to prepare for him as well. With five weeks Nick Saban and Kirby Smart will know every voluntary and involuntary move this kids makes on any situation that happens during a game. That gives me peace. :biggrin2:
 

257WBY

Suspended
Aug 20, 2011
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The danger with ND is the legs of the QB. That is the only thing that has given Alabama trouble in recent years.
 

rizolltizide

Hall of Fame
Jan 4, 2003
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I'm going to do a full BCSCG Preview / Statistical Differential Analysis later on but here is one statistical snippet that points toward one of Notre Dame's strengths not being as strong as it appears. As of now Notre Dame's Rushing Defense is ranked 4th in the Country. Of course, Alabama's Rushing Defense is ranked 1st in the Country. That ranking, though, is based upon Rushing Yards per Game given up. Looking at it a little closer, though, yields some interesting results....

<snip>

...A quick glance at the stats/rankings - or a quick listen to most talking heads or fans - would leave you to believe that Alabama hitting that "magic" number of 150 Yards Rushing against Notre Dame would be a difficult feat. A closer look at the reasons behind Notre Dame's Rushing Defense number, however, makes that seem like much less of a daunting task.
Yeah, but should I buy a new iphone? ;)
 

AgentAntiOrange

1st Team
Dec 30, 2009
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Norman, OK
Great info OP. I'd also love to see a breakdown of the SoS of both teams opponents. I look at ND opponents and think about the conferences they play in and I just feel like ND might be a complete sham. The Stanford win was a great win, no doubt. The OU win is a good win but when you look to see who OU actually beat it doesn't look as good. And when you look at the schedule's of teams like Pitt, BC, navy, etc....it's tough to find many teams on ND's schedule that you respect at all. The ACC was horrid this year and the rest of their opponents schedules are filled with teams we'd beat by 60 all day long. I don't normally downplay our opponents but I feel like ND is a genuine fraud in terms of honestly being one of the top 5 teams in the country.
 

sanjosecrimson

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May 18, 2007
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Great info OP. I'd also love to see a breakdown of the SoS of both teams opponents. I look at ND opponents and think about the conferences they play in and I just feel like ND might be a complete sham. The Stanford win was a great win, no doubt. The OU win is a good win but when you look to see who OU actually beat it doesn't look as good. And when you look at the schedule's of teams like Pitt, BC, navy, etc....it's tough to find many teams on ND's schedule that you respect at all. The ACC was horrid this year and the rest of their opponents schedules are filled with teams we'd beat by 60 all day long. I don't normally downplay our opponents but I feel like ND is a genuine fraud in terms of honestly being one of the top 5 teams in the country.

you mean the Stanford game where the replay officials denied Stanford the TD that would have gone to the 2nd OT???
 

AgentAntiOrange

1st Team
Dec 30, 2009
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Norman, OK
you mean the Stanford game where the replay officials denied Stanford the TD that would have gone to the 2nd OT???
Yes, I do. At the end of the day ND won on the scoreboard. Stanford is a conference champion, has quality wins of their own, and is playing as well as anyone in the country over the last 5 or 6 games. That win looks great on the ND resume.

That there was or wasn't a controversial officiating call has no relevance on how the "W" looks to voters and computers, nor does it have any relevance where the record books are concerned. Regardless of calls....ND will forever be the winner of that game and Stanford will forever be the loser.
 

BigBama

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There are many good points in this thread and the statistical breakdown is very interesting. However, many folks discounted Alabama going into the '92 natty against Miami because many of our wins weren't that impressive. Their rush defense is stout no matter how its broken down and both teams will be healed up, and ready to bash heads. While it doesn't matter if we discount ND's resume, I sure hope our boys are preparing for them like they are lining up against the Ravens.
 

FriendlyIrish

3rd Team
Nov 22, 2012
217
0
0
Texas had the "top ranked run defense "in 09 !
They lost their QB in the.... ok I will stop right there.

That is a good breakdown by the OP and I'm sure many here appreciate his work. I still think our run D is as stout as anyone in the country. When you have the #30 schedule in the country and you don't allow a touchdown until your 8th game against Belldozer (after playing Navy - all running, UM - Denard, MSU - Leveon Bell, and Miami - Duke Johnson all ACC rookie), you have a good run defense.

I find it interesting that Brian Kelly called up Les and Chip to see what they do for their layoff time. Would Les purposefully lie to BK to help you guys? I think he would...:biggrin:
 

crmsntd91

1st Team
Sep 30, 2010
471
0
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If seriour, that alone tells me we have a monumental advantage if your coach is calling someone who eats grass to ask what to do during off time.

They lost their QB in the.... ok I will stop right there.

That is a good breakdown by the OP and I'm sure many here appreciate his work. I still think our run D is as stout as anyone in the country. When you have the #30 schedule in the country and you don't allow a touchdown until your 8th game against Belldozer (after playing Navy - all running, UM - Denard, MSU - Leveon Bell, and Miami - Duke Johnson all ACC rookie), you have a good run defense.

I find it interesting that Brian Kelly called up Les and Chip to see what they do for their layoff time. Would Les purposefully lie to BK to help you guys? I think he would...:biggrin:
 

bamafaninOhiO

All-American
May 11, 2010
2,114
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There are many good points in this thread and the statistical breakdown is very interesting. However, many folks discounted Alabama going into the '92 natty against Miami because many of our wins weren't that impressive. Their rush defense is stout no matter how its broken down and both teams will be healed up, and ready to bash heads. While it doesn't matter if we discount ND's resume, I sure hope our boys are preparing for them like they are lining up against the Ravens.
exactly why do people feel the need to discount Notre Dame's resume?

no matter what is written or said, they went 12 and 0 on the season, against 12 FBS opponents, and all thats left is one 60 minute game to either prove their #1, or lose to the new number #1.

you said it pefectly; just prepare for the game like we always would, and let the teams decide the game on the 7th...

they're a very dangerous team, if for no other reason than they're next on the schedule!
 

FriendlyIrish

3rd Team
Nov 22, 2012
217
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If seriour, that alone tells me we have a monumental advantage if your coach is calling someone who eats grass to ask what to do during off time.
I missspoke in my post. I meant didn't allow a RUSHING TD until 8th game. My bad.

Yes, CBK really did do that. I don't see the big deal. He was very open about it. Many coaches in CFB do the same types of things. I see no one in the media making a big deal about it...it is customary in the industry.
 

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