Alabama Notre Dame Comparison

Maverick2

BamaNation Citizen
Nov 28, 2012
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Over the last 28 games. The figures for ranked opponents is comprised of teams that finished ranked in either 2010/2011, as well those who are currently ranked in 2012


ALABAMA
Overall Record: 25-3

Against ranked teams: 6-3
-Top 5: 3-2
-Top 10: 4-3
-Top 25: 6-3

Against bowl teams: 14-3
Against losing teams: 9-0
Against FCS teams: 2-0

Record in games decided by 7 points or less: 2-3

Wins by at least 21 points: 20
Wins by at least 30 points: 14
Wins by at least 40 points: 6
Wins by at least 50 points: 1

NOTRE DAME
Overall Record: 23-5

Against ranked teams: 4-4
-Top 5: 0-0
-Top 10: 2-3
-Top 25: 4-4

Against Bowl Teams: 17-4
Against Losing Teams: 6-1
Aganist FCS Teams: 0-0

Record in games decided by 7 points or less: 9-3

Wins by at least 21 points: 8
Wins by at least 30 points: 4
Wins by at least 40 points: 2
Wins by at least 50 points: 0
 

BAMA1979

All-American
Nov 15, 2006
4,269
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Mobile
Interesting breakdown.

I had forgotten that Notre Dame won the last four games in 2010 so you could have gone back 29 games and said 24-5 for the Irish and 26-3 for Alabama, but who's counting? :biggrin2:
 

rgw

Suspended
Sep 15, 2003
20,852
1,351
232
Tuscaloosa
Btw, the three losses with 2012 TAMU, 2011 LSU, 2010 Auburn correct? Those are also all the 7 or less point losses too. The two one possession wins were 2012 LSU and 2012 UGA.
 

IH8Orange

Hall of Fame
Aug 14, 2000
7,017
31
0
Trussville, AL, USA
So to what conclusion do these numbers lead you?

I see that Notre Dame has played a lot of teams that are "bowl-bound" and "winning" teams, but they are apparently teams that are barely bowl-eligible and barely winning (21 bowl-bound teams, but only 8 ranked and no top-5 teams). Notre Dame (0.750) is more likely to win close games than Bama (0.400), but Notre Dame (12 of 28, 43%) is more likely to be involved in close games than Bama (5 of 28, 18%) and those close games for Notre Dame are not coming against elite competition (no games against top-5 teams) as they are for Bama (2 of 3 close losses against top-5 teams).

So while Notre Dame is undefeated, they are also untested against elite teams. They'll see if they truly belong in the rarefied air in about 2 1/2 weeks.
 

rgw

Suspended
Sep 15, 2003
20,852
1,351
232
Tuscaloosa
Yeah, I mean Alabama has lost 3 games in that time period and the worst lost was still to a record-setting, Heisman winning QB. The other two teams were #1 teams that won the SECCG (one of them had another Heisman winner and national title). They are likely the three best teams on these combined schedules.
 

rgw

Suspended
Sep 15, 2003
20,852
1,351
232
Tuscaloosa
Oddly enough, this is the first year under Saban where our redzone TD percentage has been high-quality. We struggled with cashing in on drives in 2009 and 2011. In 2009, McElroy was just abysmal down there which is what you'd expect for a guy who doesn't have a great deal of arm talent. Last year I felt it was the combination of a young QB and a smallish WR corp that hurt Alabama at times. This year the WR is a bit more developed and the QB has the arm talent and experience to make those throws. I think the TD% went up mainly because McCarron threw for more touchdowns down there. It shows up in his Alabama all-time, single-season passing TD mark and the fact that I think the goal-to-go rushing TDs stayed about constant.
 

Nolan

Hall of Fame
Jul 4, 2006
5,591
679
137
Oahu
Our red zone TD efficiency really has improved - and ND has been a shutdown D in the red area.

Something's gotta give.
 

trenda

Hall of Fame
May 17, 2000
6,496
213
187
55
Hendersonville, TN USA
First thing that jumps out to me is the records against top 5 teams. People can harp on the schedule all they want; but Bama's played 5 top five teams during this period (winning 3), while ND has played ZERO.

Better record than ND vs. Top 5, Top 10 and Top 25.

Then there's the whole record vs. teams with a losing record. Ouch . . .

On paper, this looks like a blow out. Plain and simple. Good thing for the Irish that the game's played on the field and not on paper.

I think the 10 point spread is about right.
 

Maverick2

BamaNation Citizen
Nov 28, 2012
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On paper, this looks like a blow out. Plain and simple. Good thing for the Irish that the game's played on the field and not on paper.
Ah, there will be no blow out either way UNLESS one team turms it over a lot. The game is going to be tight, and ND has a history of beating SEC teams when they were supposedly "big" underdogs.
 

rgw

Suspended
Sep 15, 2003
20,852
1,351
232
Tuscaloosa
Special teams probably looms large in this game. On paper, Alabama seems to have the explosiveness edge on special teams but Alabama has had some fumble issues on special teams this year. A big fumble could be as decisive for Notre Dame as a big return for us.
 

rgw

Suspended
Sep 15, 2003
20,852
1,351
232
Tuscaloosa
I hope the most confident of us are right but I see a tough win that may get stretched to two scores to cover late.
 

capnfrog

All-American
Aug 17, 2002
3,556
0
155
Pell city, Al. U.S.A.
I don't think CNS will allow the team to come out flat and over confident. Make no mistake about it, ND will come roaring out the gate and Bama better come out snot-slinging-mad.
 

skrayper77

All-American
Sep 4, 2003
3,511
228
182
Our red zone TD efficiency really has improved - and ND has been a shutdown D in the red area.

Something's gotta give.
True, but ND's red zone offense this year looks a lot like our 2009 and 2011 models - lots of yards between the 20s, not much once we get close to the goal posts. Our RZ defense is still stout. If ND does manage to move the ball, they're going to still have to settle for a lot of FGs at BEST.
 

Nolan

Hall of Fame
Jul 4, 2006
5,591
679
137
Oahu
True, but ND's red zone offense this year looks a lot like our 2009 and 2011 models - lots of yards between the 20s, not much once we get close to the goal posts. Our RZ defense is still stout. If ND does manage to move the ball, they're going to still have to settle for a lot of FGs at BEST.
If we can punch it in a few times and not settle for too many FGs we're sittin' pretty.
 

trenda

Hall of Fame
May 17, 2000
6,496
213
187
55
Hendersonville, TN USA
Ah, there will be no blow out either way UNLESS one team turms it over a lot. The game is going to be tight, and ND has a history of beating SEC teams when they were supposedly "big" underdogs.
One person's opinion. No one can say definitively whether this game will be close or not. Based on what you provided, on paper, this game shouldn't be close (which is why Bama is a 10 pt fav). I believe that will serve as motivation for ND.

The facts as you've presented them, though, show that Notre Dame has zero experience in the past 28 games against Top 5 competition. They're stepping onto a stage that NONE of them have ever been on. Bama's played in these type games multiple times during the past 28 games.

Notre Dame's chances seem tied to the the front seven of their defense and turnovers. Given that they haven't played against any top 5 competition and never on a stage this big, how does this affect their play on 1/7? If Bama averages more than 4 ypc on the ground and limits turnovers, can Notre Dame hang? This is something that will only be answered on 1/7.
 

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