I would think he is fickle and probably has a hard time developing deep relationships with many which leads to his movement every few years.
I would not think is that he is dishonest about his feeling, because those feelings can change.
He will not be offered a top 40% job in the pro's like with the Steelers. There will be some downside to the job imo. He has a top 99% College gig.
After breaking everything down, if he leaves it's to go to a place where he can make the most money in his last stretch, as long as he has a boss he knows and likes. And since no one knows how much money is a lure, he could possible go. He is still a mystery.
My gut says that more money is not that big of a deal and he will coach another 6 or so at Bama.