Most likely score?
Alabama 20 Notre Dame 19
Possible outcomes? Here are four:
1. Alabama wins by more than 10 points! Let's say... Alabama 30, Notre Dame 9
Probability: 20%
Factors:
* Notre Dame offensive futility in the red zone continues.
* Notre Dame special teams mediocrity allows a return TD or a 50+ yard return.
* Inexperienced Notre Dame defensive backfield allows at least one long TD, think Yeldon on a screen or wheel route.
* Alabama running game out of the I-formation continues to prove to be unstoppable, chews clock on three long drives, including one in the 4Q. Alabama OL continues their dominance.
* Alabama wins the turnover battle by two or more.
2. Notre Dame wins by more than 10 points! Let's say... Notre Dame 26, Alabama 10
Probability: 10%
Factors:
* AJ McCarron is knocked out of the game, and Notre Dame defense feasts on inexperienced backup QBs, deja vu Garrett Gilbert circa 2010.
* Notre Dame defensive front seven stops the run and continues to forbid running TDs in the red zone. Notre Dame DL continues their dominance.
* Inexperienced Notre Dame defensive backfield plays deep single coverage, allows only "bend but don't break" receptions, continues to forbid passing TDs.
* Accurate Notre Dame PK Kyle Brindza converts all FG opportunities, perhaps 4 of 4.
* Notre Dame TE Tyler Eifert wins at least two red zone mismatches, leading to at least one and perhaps two TDs.
* Notre Dame wins the turnover battle by two or more.
3. Alabama wins a close game... Alabama 20, Notre Dame 19
Probability: 40%
Factors:
* Notre Dame offensive futility in the red zone continues. Alabama scores two TDs, while Notre Dame scores only one TD.
* Notre Dame special teams mediocrity allows favorable field position for Alabama on two occasions. Alabama special teams never allow Notre Dame any breathing room in field position.
* Inexperienced Notre Dame defensive backfield allows too many 3rd down conversions, and Alabama keeps possession for 35 minutes.
* Alabama running game out of the I-formation continues to prove to be unstoppable, chews clock on two long drives, including one in the 4Q.
* Experienced Saban/McCarron make better tactical decisions than inexperienced Kelly/Golston.
4. Notre Dame wins a close game, say... Notre Dame 20, Alabama 18
Probability: 30%
Factors:
* AJ McCarron is unable to exploit Notre Dame defense frequently playing man coverage on Alabama WRs.
* Notre Dame defensive front seven stops the run in second half and limits Lacy/Yeldon to 100 rushing yards and 50 receiving yards.
* Inexperienced Notre Dame defensive backfield plays deep, allows only "bend but don't break" receptions, continues to forbid passing TDs.
* Accurate Notre Dame PK Kyle Brindza converts all FG opportunities, perhaps 4 of 4.
* Notre Dame TE Tyler Eifert wins at least one red zone mismatch, leading to at least one TD.
* Notre Dame commits to the run, refrains from turnovers, and cranks out first downs in the 4Q (or overtime)