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  1. #66

    Re: Pick the Score: Alabama vs. Notre Dame BCSNCG

    Quote Originally Posted by domeronaroll View Post
    2. Notre Dame wins by more than 10 points! Let's say... Notre Dame 26, Alabama 10
    Probability: 10%
    Factors:
    * AJ McCarron is knocked out of the game, and Notre Dame defense feasts on inexperienced backup QBs, deja vu Garrett Gilbert circa 2010.
    * Notre Dame defensive front seven stops the run and continues to forbid running TDs in the red zone. Notre Dame DL continues their dominance.
    * Inexperienced Notre Dame defensive backfield plays deep single coverage, allows only "bend but don't break" receptions, continues to forbid passing TDs.
    * Accurate Notre Dame PK Kyle Brindza converts all FG opportunities, perhaps 4 of 4.
    * Notre Dame TE Tyler Eifert wins at least two red zone mismatches, leading to at least one and perhaps two TDs.
    * Notre Dame wins the turnover battle by two or more.
    I don't think it will happen but if McCarron were to get knocked out of the game the score would probable be more like 16-0 with Kelly going extremely conservative

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  3. #67
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    Re: Pick the Score: Alabama vs. Notre Dame BCSNCG

    Quote Originally Posted by domeronaroll View Post
    Most likely score?
    Alabama 20 Notre Dame 19

    Possible outcomes? Here are four:

    1. Alabama wins by more than 10 points! Let's say... Alabama 30, Notre Dame 9
    Probability: 20%
    Factors:
    * Notre Dame offensive futility in the red zone continues.
    * Notre Dame special teams mediocrity allows a return TD or a 50+ yard return.
    * Inexperienced Notre Dame defensive backfield allows at least one long TD, think Yeldon on a screen or wheel route.
    * Alabama running game out of the I-formation continues to prove to be unstoppable, chews clock on three long drives, including one in the 4Q. Alabama OL continues their dominance.
    * Alabama wins the turnover battle by two or more.

    2. Notre Dame wins by more than 10 points! Let's say... Notre Dame 26, Alabama 10
    Probability: 10%
    Factors:
    * AJ McCarron is knocked out of the game, and Notre Dame defense feasts on inexperienced backup QBs, deja vu Garrett Gilbert circa 2010.
    * Notre Dame defensive front seven stops the run and continues to forbid running TDs in the red zone. Notre Dame DL continues their dominance.
    * Inexperienced Notre Dame defensive backfield plays deep single coverage, allows only "bend but don't break" receptions, continues to forbid passing TDs.
    * Accurate Notre Dame PK Kyle Brindza converts all FG opportunities, perhaps 4 of 4.
    * Notre Dame TE Tyler Eifert wins at least two red zone mismatches, leading to at least one and perhaps two TDs.
    * Notre Dame wins the turnover battle by two or more.

    3. Alabama wins a close game... Alabama 20, Notre Dame 19
    Probability: 40%
    Factors:
    * Notre Dame offensive futility in the red zone continues. Alabama scores two TDs, while Notre Dame scores only one TD.
    * Notre Dame special teams mediocrity allows favorable field position for Alabama on two occasions. Alabama special teams never allow Notre Dame any breathing room in field position.
    * Inexperienced Notre Dame defensive backfield allows too many 3rd down conversions, and Alabama keeps possession for 35 minutes.
    * Alabama running game out of the I-formation continues to prove to be unstoppable, chews clock on two long drives, including one in the 4Q.
    * Experienced Saban/McCarron make better tactical decisions than inexperienced Kelly/Golston.

    4. Notre Dame wins a close game, say... Notre Dame 20, Alabama 18
    Probability: 30%
    Factors:
    * AJ McCarron is unable to exploit Notre Dame defense frequently playing man coverage on Alabama WRs.
    * Notre Dame defensive front seven stops the run in second half and limits Lacy/Yeldon to 100 rushing yards and 50 receiving yards.
    * Inexperienced Notre Dame defensive backfield plays deep, allows only "bend but don't break" receptions, continues to forbid passing TDs.
    * Accurate Notre Dame PK Kyle Brindza converts all FG opportunities, perhaps 4 of 4.
    * Notre Dame TE Tyler Eifert wins at least one red zone mismatch, leading to at least one TD.
    * Notre Dame commits to the run, refrains from turnovers, and cranks out first downs in the 4Q (or overtime)
    Not sure what I think about your probabilities, but the scenarios and outcomes make sense to me. Regardless of the outcome, here's hoping for a well-played game, no injuries, improved respect from each fanbase for the other.

  4. #68
    BamaNation Second Team AlabasterBama's Avatar
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    Re: Pick the Score: Alabama vs. Notre Dame BCSNCG

    If we stick to the running game and pound the football
    Bama-23
    ND-13

    If we get into the routine of throw on first down, run on second, throw on third....... things could get uneasy

  5. #69
    BamaNation All-American
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    Re: Pick the Score: Alabama vs. Notre Dame BCSNCG

    I am concerned about their defense and their team of destiny confidence. I am also concerned about our turnover issues when playing top teams this year. Watching some of the other SEC teams struggle also concerns me a little bit.
    Bama 24
    Notre Dame 23

    This score would provide some redemption for the long time sufferers of the early 70s.

  6. #70
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    Re: Pick the Score: Alabama vs. Notre Dame BCSNCG

    Bama 31
    Notre Dame 10

  7. #71
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    Re: Pick the Score: Alabama vs. Notre Dame BCSNCG

    Quote Originally Posted by NDGiantsKings View Post
    Michigan beat Purdue by 30. We only beat Purdue by 3. Triangle theories don't work.
    Sure they do, Michigan also had how many turnovers against you. If they had chosen to run D. Robinson against you rather than pass from the pocket which he is not, then they beat you.

  8. #72
    BamaNation Second Team Redstripe's Avatar
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    Re: Pick the Score: Alabama vs. Notre Dame BCSNCG

    Alabama 27 Notre Dame 13.

  9. #73
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    Re: Pick the Score: Alabama vs. Notre Dame BCSNCG

    Alabama 36
    Notre Dame 14

  10. #74
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    Re: Pick the Score: Alabama vs. Notre Dame BCSNCG

    Quote Originally Posted by BamaNation View Post
    Bama 31 UND 10


    ... but I would be satisfied with 2-0
    It is time for you to upgrade your Avatar...........

  11. #75

    Re: Pick the Score: Alabama vs. Notre Dame BCSNCG

    20-13 Bama
    Bama 867-314-44 72.6% On the field

    23 SEC CHAMPIONSHIPS

  12. #76
    BamaNation All-American NationalTitles15's Avatar
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    Re: Pick the Score: Alabama vs. Notre Dame BCSNCG

    Crimson Tide: 27

    : 13
    Last edited by NationalTitles15; January 3rd, 2013 at 09:46 PM.
    Roll Tide Roll!!!

  13. #77
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    Re: Pick the Score: Alabama vs. Notre Dame BCSNCG

    I had a doctor's appt today, which I only bring up because he's an ND alum who will be going to the game. He thinks Bama has the better team, but figures that anything can happen in one game.

    I told him that when I found out he was an ND alum, I made sure my January appt was before the game; that way if we won, I didn't have to worry about him suddenly deciding that I need a prostate exam.
    I may disagree with you, but I'm pretty sure you're not Hitler.

  14. #78

    Re: Pick the Score: Alabama vs. Notre Dame BCSNCG

    My optimistic prediction: ND 20, Alabama 17. I'm off to Miami in the morning. Good luck Tide fans-- thanks for the hospitality on the board the last couple of weeks.

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