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  1. #27

    Re: BCS preview: Alabama fighting both the Irish and history

    Quote Originally Posted by Luvubama View Post
    a nod to the 40-, 50- and 60-somethings who still get a certain tightness in their stomachs at the mention of the year 1973.

    Jess, I have always enjoyed your analyses but this one really summoned the ghosts you referenced in the quote above. Unlike many on this board I can't shake the demons from that game and the others before it (all of which I attended). While I really believe we are a better team across the board than ND, I know what can happen in the intangible department with this team. And i do predict we win, but my guess is the other 50+ something's are exactly where I am -- tight stomach and all!
    You can say that again. But we were a terrible bowl team at that time. We aren't now and CNS is exceptional at keeping them focused. And this team has really earned their spot with 'never say die' fight and resiliency. I'm cautiously optimistic but there's still that tightness in my gut.

    Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk 2

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  3. #28

    Re: BCS preview: Alabama fighting both the Irish and history

    Fantastic analysis as usual. I had earlier predicted a higher scoring game along the lines of 30-20 Bama. In light of Jess's analysis it's hard to see how the score will get as high as 30-20, unless turnovers are a factor. Both teams take care of the ball relatively well, but to be honest our RB's don't always hold onto the ball quite as well as we would like, and even AJ's interception-free streak has been history for several weeks now. If we can hold the LOS early on offense and establish the running game, it should open up the passing game and at that point ND will be toast, if we protect the ball. I see turnovers as the only thing that would give ND a shot at a win. If we win the turnover battle handily, and Bama gets a lopsided victory, it might actually set ND's program back a few years, and they might be wishing they hadn't even played in this game!
    Discipline.
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    Effort.
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    Pride.
    (http://www.tuscaloosanews.com/article/20100201/news/100209986)

  4. #29
    BamaNation Hall of Fame JBama_in_PCOLA's Avatar
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    BCS preview: Alabama fighting both the Irish and history

    Quote Originally Posted by bamacon View Post
    Well, Bama should have proved Jess right there too. He can't make them run the ball.
    True!
    ROLL TIDE!

  5. #30
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    Re: BCS preview: Alabama fighting both the Irish and history

    I still think the Irish haven't faced SEC speed yet. That one factor could make or break the game.
    I see us as more of a 30- 10 winner.
    Coach Saban has had a month to prepare for ND. and he usually has an idea what they will do.
    I'm sure ND will put in some Offensive wrinkle for us.
    Like everyone else we've played I expect ND Defense to try to stop the run. If AJ catches fire we can score quickly, but I'd much rather see us grind it out and wear them down.
    We will have to protect the QB, but if we give him time, good things are likely to happen.
    Yes... I've got on my Rose Colored Glasses again.
    Last edited by Ole Man Dan; January 3rd, 2013 at 10:12 PM. Reason: format

  6. #31
    BamaNation All-SEC Perrett4Bama's Avatar
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    Re: BCS preview: Alabama fighting both the Irish and history

    Quote Originally Posted by OreBama View Post
    Finally...

    Great preview as always, Jess. It should be fun.
    Ditto.....
    "In the beginning God created the heavens and the earth." Genesis 1:1

  7. #32

    Re: BCS preview: Alabama fighting both the Irish and history

    I dont understand all the worry from the older generation about this game... I am not disrespecting ND but our record against them was in a different era of football completely - rules, player development, speed of the game, etc. Everything is different about CFB now and ND is just now catching up to it. Back in the day, it could be argued the best players were on the ND team - not now.

    ND is a good team but we should win the game if we stay focused on our plan. We have more depth and experience so quit worrying.

  8. #33
    BamaNation Hall of Fame JBama_in_PCOLA's Avatar
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    BCS preview: Alabama fighting both the Irish and history

    Quote Originally Posted by JDCrimson View Post
    I dont understand all the worry from the older generation about this game... I am not disrespecting ND but our record against them was in a different era of football completely - rules, player development, speed of the game, etc. Everything is different about CFB now and ND is just now catching up to it. Back in the day, it could be argued the best players were on the ND team - not now.

    ND is a good team but we should win the game if we stay focused on our plan. We have more depth and experience so quit worrying.
    Yes quit worrying!
    ROLL TIDE!

  9. #34
    BamaNation Hall of Fame 92tide's Avatar
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    Re: BCS preview: Alabama fighting both the Irish and history

    Quote Originally Posted by JDCrimson View Post
    I dont understand all the worry from the older generation about this game... I am not disrespecting ND but our record against them was in a different era of football completely - rules, player development, speed of the game, etc. Everything is different about CFB now and ND is just now catching up to it. Back in the day, it could be argued the best players were on the ND team - not now.

    ND is a good team but we should win the game if we stay focused on our plan. We have more depth and experience so quit worrying.

    well, on one of the halftime shows this week, lou was pretty much guaranteeing a win based on all of these historic factors which have absolutely no impact on this year's game. so maybe it just has something to do with being old

    the one i watched, mark may pretty much mopped the floor with lou on the game analysis and left him sputtering more than usual.
    Hail Mary, Full of Grace, Notre Dame in Second Place, with a made up girlfriend

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    ó Thomas Pynchon

  10. #35
    BamaNation Hall of Fame 92tide's Avatar
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    Re: BCS preview: Alabama fighting both the Irish and history

    Quote Originally Posted by JBama_in_PCOLA View Post
    Yes quit worrying!

    well, at least for me, after the black-out game in athens, 2008, i quit worrying about whether or not bama would show up and compete in big games. after all of the stress and angst during the dubosefranchawnniepriceshula debacle, its quite a nice way to follow bama football.
    Hail Mary, Full of Grace, Notre Dame in Second Place, with a made up girlfriend

    The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.

    -Bertrand Russell

    If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they donít have to worry about the answers.

    ó Thomas Pynchon

  11. #36
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    BCS preview: Alabama fighting both the Irish and history

    Quote Originally Posted by 92tide View Post
    well, at least for me, after the black-out game in athens, 2008, i quit worrying about whether or not bama would show up and compete in big games. after all of the stress and angst during the dubosefranchawnniepriceshula debacle, its quite a nice way to follow bama football.
    Completely agree with you. We had our moments back then with those coaches, but CNS and his staff makes this so much better. I do worry myself, but this is fun.
    ROLL TIDE!

  12. #37
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    Re: BCS preview: Alabama fighting both the Irish and history

    I did a little digging into Jess' predictions this year, versus the actual results. What I found should make us feel pretty good.

    Excluding the three non-BCS, box-of-chocolate opponents - Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, Western Carolina - Jess on average predicted a margin 10 points narrower than the actual margin, under-predicting our scoring by seven points per game, and over-predicting our opponents' scoring by three points per game. In only two games was there a negative variance between his prediction and the result: LSU, in which he predicted a seven-point Alabama win that turned out to be only four points (variance = -3); and TAMU, when he predicted a six-point win that turned out to be a five-point loss (variance = -11). Even throwing out the two biggest misses (+35 variance versus Arkansas and +25 versus Auburn), for the remaining eight games on average he nailed the opponents' scores and under-predicted ours by four points. Bottomline, Jess is almost an anti-homer.

    Jess predicts a 10-point Alabama win. For Notre Dame to win by one point, Jess would have to have a variance of -11, equaling his worst of the year (TAMU). If you think Golson can replicate Manziel, that our defense has learned nothing since TAMU, and that we can be -3 in turnover margin, Notre Dame and 10 points is still a push; otherwise, based on results to date, you have to like the odds of an Alabama win.

  13. #38

    Re: BCS preview: Alabama fighting both the Irish and history

    6-6 facing an SEC schedule.....no respect.

  14. #39
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    Re: BCS preview: Alabama fighting both the Irish and history

    Quote Originally Posted by dulac72 View Post
    6-6 facing an SEC schedule.....no respect.
    ??? BYU went 7-5 playing their schedule...
    Last edited by Isaiah 63:1; January 4th, 2013 at 03:51 PM.

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