And then we get to the time off in preparation for this game... Nick Saban already has three national championships and is 5-3 ATS as a favorite in bowl games. Brian Kelly is 1-4 all-time ATS in bowl games and lost his only appearance in a BCS bowl with Cincinnati to Virginia Tech, 20-7, in the 2009 Orange Bowl (his undefeated Bearcats were destroyed in the 2010 Sugar Bowl by Florida after Kelly left for Notre Dame). These records and experiences do not reflect why we are picking this way, but they certainly do not hurt the argument. With the time off, it does not appear as though injuries to either side will play a role.
In 50,000 simulations of the BCS Championship Game, Alabama wins 70.2 percent of the time and by an average score of 29.1-16.3