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  1. #14
    BamaNation Hall of Fame JBama_in_PCOLA's Avatar
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    What my Statistical Differential Analysis model predicts for the game tonight...

    Quote Originally Posted by bamacon View Post
    And if it were just ONE game I would cut them a lot more slack but they were neck and neck in half their games and should have lost at least 3 of them.
    It's one game I look at more than all the other. Boston College was terrible this year and they struggled to put them away. 21-6 was the final score and I stop and think what if Bama would have gotten a hold of them. It would look like the Arkansas score.

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  3. #15
    BamaNation Hall of Fame GreatDanish's Avatar
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    Re: What my Statistical Differential Analysis model predicts for the game tonight...

    Statistician here.

    Basically, my analysis indicates that we have a 78% chance of winning. Predicted score: 16-10.

    Really, more than anything, I am seeing that we have a much higher ceiling. Our maximum predicted score is 35, Notre Dame's is 23.

    Any statistical analysis is difficult because of the long lay over between games, the neutral site, high emotion, etc. It's just a different game.

    AccuScore is showing that we have won 81% of its simulations. They are a little more optimistic than I, but about the same.

    But, it just comes down to who plays better tonight. We are the better team, but we have to prove it one more time.

  4. #16
    BamaNation All-American colbysullivan's Avatar
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    Re: What my Statistical Differential Analysis model predicts for the game tonight...

    Interesting numbers. On ESPN, 52% of the country picked Notre Dame. I think most of them are either picking with their hearts instead of their heads, or they're just tired of Bama/SEC and it's wishful thinking.

  5. #17
    BamaNation Hall of Fame JBama_in_PCOLA's Avatar
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    What my Statistical Differential Analysis model predicts for the game tonight...

    Quote Originally Posted by colbysullivan View Post
    Interesting numbers. On ESPN, 52% of the country picked Notre Dame. I think most of them are either picking with their hearts instead of their heads, or they're just tired of Bama/SEC and it's wishful thinking.
    I'll choose B wishful thinking.

  6. #18
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    Re: What my Statistical Differential Analysis model predicts for the game tonight...

    Quote Originally Posted by colbysullivan View Post
    Interesting numbers. On ESPN, 52% of the country picked Notre Dame. I think most of them are either picking with their hearts instead of their heads, or they're just tired of Bama/SEC and it's wishful thinking.
    I definitely think SEC fatigue is playing into it. And although Notre Dame grates on everyone's nerves (except their fans of course), they haven't done anything in 25 years. It's easy to pick them over the SEC, if you hate both.

  7. #19
    BamaNation Hall of Fame uafan4life's Avatar
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    Re: What my Statistical Differential Analysis model predicts for the game tonight...

    Quote Originally Posted by Tide1986 View Post
    Have you used the model for any other games besides the ones you listed? If so, did the model miss on any of its predictions on who would be victorious?
    Yes, I have - sort of. While I have the bulk of the model programmed in to be automatically compared, much of the prediction-specific stuff is not. Add in that I have to manually enter quite a few stats into the db manually and you can see why I don't do it very often and especially not for a lot of teams.

    I have done it for every major Alabama game for the past the seasons and a few other major games that piqued my interest. So far this year there are only two games, out of about a dozen, that it's gotten wrong: the Bama - Texas A&M game and the K-State - Baylor game. The K-State game was way off but the Bama - TAMU game would have been about dead-on if we had scored a touchdown on one of those last two drives.

    It's quite a bit hit-or-miss when it comes to the scores but it's over 90% accurate on the games I've run it on overall for the past two seasons. I did quite a bit more with it last year than this year due to time commitments. Last year, though, it correctly predicted the outcome of all of the BCS Bowls except for the Rose (I think) which basically had the scores flipped.

    This year, though, I can say for certain that it would have missed on a few, specifically the Sugar.

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  8. #20
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    Re: What my Statistical Differential Analysis model predicts for the game tonight...

    Quote Originally Posted by colbysullivan View Post
    Interesting numbers. On ESPN, 52% of the country picked Notre Dame. I think most of them are either picking with their hearts instead of their heads, or they're just tired of Bama/SEC and it's wishful thinking.
    I can imagine that, for a lot of non-partisans, this is sort of like a hypothetical choice between John McCain and John Kerry for president - they don't want to vote for either one, so they don't.

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