Basically, my analysis indicates that we have a 78% chance of winning. Predicted score: 16-10.
Really, more than anything, I am seeing that we have a much higher ceiling. Our maximum predicted score is 35, Notre Dame's is 23.
Any statistical analysis is difficult because of the long lay over between games, the neutral site, high emotion, etc. It's just a different game.
AccuScore is showing that we have won 81% of its simulations. They are a little more optimistic than I, but about the same.
But, it just comes down to who plays better tonight. We are the better team, but we have to prove it one more time.
Interesting numbers. On ESPN, 52% of the country picked Notre Dame. I think most of them are either picking with their hearts instead of their heads, or they're just tired of Bama/SEC and it's wishful thinking.
I have done it for every major Alabama game for the past the seasons and a few other major games that piqued my interest. So far this year there are only two games, out of about a dozen, that it's gotten wrong: the Bama - Texas A&M game and the K-State - Baylor game. The K-State game was way off but the Bama - TAMU game would have been about dead-on if we had scored a touchdown on one of those last two drives.
It's quite a bit hit-or-miss when it comes to the scores but it's over 90% accurate on the games I've run it on overall for the past two seasons. I did quite a bit more with it last year than this year due to time commitments. Last year, though, it correctly predicted the outcome of all of the BCS Bowls except for the Rose (I think) which basically had the scores flipped.
This year, though, I can say for certain that it would have missed on a few, specifically the Sugar.
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