Normally when I do a thread/post on teams' Statistical Differentials I do a long, detailed post with lots of numbers. I'm not going to do that this time for three reasons: 1) I don't really have time (as evidenced by the fact that I'm just now posting this today rather than a few days ago), 2) I've added another set of splits statistic categories to the model that had to mostly be figured/compared manually, and 3) I just don't really feel like it.
Even though I won't go into all of the details, I will give you a peek into some of the insight that can be gleaned from the data.
NOTE: As with all statistical analysis, and especially predictions gleaned from that analysis, this must be taken with a particularly large grain of salt: statistical analysis cannot account for outliers - results varying from the norm due to unknown factors such as injuries, emotional factors/mood, "rust", etc. - in individual events. This prediction assumes that both teams perform at a relatively equal level to what they have performed thus far.
Ok, now - for the results...
While poring over some of the differentials a thought occurred to me in regard to a differential "split" comparison category that could provide - and does seem to provide - some very interesting insight into a team's relative performance. I call it the "Quality Unit" split. I use many the typical splits in my analysis of the units' performances in different categories: e.g., Total Offense vs. Conference Opponents, Scoring Defense vs. BCS Opponents, Red Zone Efficiency vs. BCS 'Winning Record' Opponents, etc. The idea behind those different splits is to garner more consistent, reliable data by using results versus what would be expected to be a more consistent level of competition. The "Quality Unit" split is a little more detailed and is mostly irrespective of conference affiliation and record. The reason for this is due to the fact that a relatively good team may have a particularly bad unit while a relatively bad team may have a particularly good unit in a certain category.
What the "Quality Unit" split does is compare a particular team's unit/category performance versus that unit/category's inverse against that team's opponents who are ranked in the Top 40 for that unit/category's 'Quality Unit' ranking. To be eligible for a 'Quality Unit' ranking, the unit must have faced off against at least 3 Top 40 'Quality Unit' ranked units themselves. This is to put in perspective the outliers who generally faced lessor competition such as, for example, Marshall's Scoring Offense. While Marshall's Scoring Offense currently ranks at 7th among FBS schools at 40.9 points per game, they only faced the minimum 3 'Quality Unit' Scoring Defenses. And against those units, Marshall averaged a mediocre 26.3 points per game; they were hardly a scoring juggernaut against good scoring defenses. Compare that to Alabama's scoring offense which is currently ranked at 13th in the FBS, averaging 38.5 points per game. Alabama's scoring offense, though, has faced 6 'Quality Unit' Scoring Defenses and averaged an excellent 31.8 points per game against those units. Notre Dame's scoring offense is currently ranked at 74th in FBS at 26.8 points per game. Notre Dame's scoring offense, though, has faced 7 'Quality Unit' Scoring Defenses and averaged a very poor 21.6 points per game against those units.
Here is a chart with a few, select teams and their corresponding Scoring Offense 'Quality Unit' Rankings:
Even though I won't go into all of the details, I will give you a peek into some of the insight that can be gleaned from the data.
NOTE: As with all statistical analysis, and especially predictions gleaned from that analysis, this must be taken with a particularly large grain of salt: statistical analysis cannot account for outliers - results varying from the norm due to unknown factors such as injuries, emotional factors/mood, "rust", etc. - in individual events. This prediction assumes that both teams perform at a relatively equal level to what they have performed thus far.
Ok, now - for the results...
While poring over some of the differentials a thought occurred to me in regard to a differential "split" comparison category that could provide - and does seem to provide - some very interesting insight into a team's relative performance. I call it the "Quality Unit" split. I use many the typical splits in my analysis of the units' performances in different categories: e.g., Total Offense vs. Conference Opponents, Scoring Defense vs. BCS Opponents, Red Zone Efficiency vs. BCS 'Winning Record' Opponents, etc. The idea behind those different splits is to garner more consistent, reliable data by using results versus what would be expected to be a more consistent level of competition. The "Quality Unit" split is a little more detailed and is mostly irrespective of conference affiliation and record. The reason for this is due to the fact that a relatively good team may have a particularly bad unit while a relatively bad team may have a particularly good unit in a certain category.
What the "Quality Unit" split does is compare a particular team's unit/category performance versus that unit/category's inverse against that team's opponents who are ranked in the Top 40 for that unit/category's 'Quality Unit' ranking. To be eligible for a 'Quality Unit' ranking, the unit must have faced off against at least 3 Top 40 'Quality Unit' ranked units themselves. This is to put in perspective the outliers who generally faced lessor competition such as, for example, Marshall's Scoring Offense. While Marshall's Scoring Offense currently ranks at 7th among FBS schools at 40.9 points per game, they only faced the minimum 3 'Quality Unit' Scoring Defenses. And against those units, Marshall averaged a mediocre 26.3 points per game; they were hardly a scoring juggernaut against good scoring defenses. Compare that to Alabama's scoring offense which is currently ranked at 13th in the FBS, averaging 38.5 points per game. Alabama's scoring offense, though, has faced 6 'Quality Unit' Scoring Defenses and averaged an excellent 31.8 points per game against those units. Notre Dame's scoring offense is currently ranked at 74th in FBS at 26.8 points per game. Notre Dame's scoring offense, though, has faced 7 'Quality Unit' Scoring Defenses and averaged a very poor 21.6 points per game against those units.
Here is a chart with a few, select teams and their corresponding Scoring Offense 'Quality Unit' Rankings:
Scoring Offense Quality Unit Rankings |