They should just start engraving that crystal ball today.
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I'm assuming you're being sarcastic there.
However, when you think about it, this season shapes up - pre-season, anyway - to be our "best" chance at winning the National Championship of any of the past four seasons. Think about it... In 2009 we had a very good team returning but we had just been bested by a Florida team that had almost everyone coming back and was everyone's favorite to win the SEC, if not the NC. While we weren't necessarily coming out of left field with our success that season, winning the NC was unexpected by most. In 2010 we had a lot of talent coming back but we had lost a lot of experience and leadership and, as a result, lost a lot of focus. Add to that the fact that five of our SEC opponents, with four of them ranked, had a week off to prepare for us and a repeat was a highly unlikely scenario. Sure, many Bama were optimistic about our chances at another NC but, realistically, most of us realized it was at best a very difficult proposition. In 2011 we knew that we had a lot of talent coming back and a lot of young players who had gained a lot of invaluable experience the previous season but we also lost four 1st Round NFL Draft Picks as well as our starting Quarterback. We all pretty much felt like 2010 was a bit of a disappointment - or at least underachievement - and expected improvement in 2011 but few of us, much less the "experts", were penciling us in for the BCS National Championship Game before the season began. This past season, 2012, was expected by everyone to be a rebuilding year. Sure, we expected to have a pretty good shot at making a run for an SEC Championship and a National Championship but expecting a repeat, given the sheer amount of talent we had lost on both sides of the ball, certainly seemed like a bit much. After all, we had just lost 8 players to the NFL Draft, four of which were picked in the first round with another just three spots outside of it. Conventional wisdom says that you don't replace that much talent and just "reload" quickly and completely enough to make a run at a National Championship.
Looking at this season, at this point, gives us more reasons to expect an undefeated season than any of those previous four. Let's look at several key SEC matchups this season and compare those teams' outlooks to Bama's for this season:
Texas A&M
Texas A&M is losing their starters at what is most likely the two most important positions on the offensive line: Left Tackle and Center. They were probably a hair's breadth away from losing both of their tackles to the NFL Draft, until all of Aggie-Land breathed a sigh of relief when Jake Matthews decided to return for his Senior season. They're also losing their number one Running Back and Wide Receiver. All total, the Aggies are losing 12 starters off of last year's squad. A&M plays two cupcakes in their first two games - who shouldn't give them more than a quarter's worth of resistance, if even that - before facing Alabama. Yes, they'll have had two games to break in the new starters but real chemistry is built when teams are tested. There's always a chance that Manziel, as good as he is, will have at least somewhat of a "sophomore slump" following his amazing first season as a starter, especially given the pre-season and early-season hype and attention that will surely envelope the Heisman winner. Add to that the revenge factor, with many Bama players and coaches having likely circled this game on the calendar a couple of months ago, and you have a pretty good recipe for an Alabama win. This will almost certainly be the toughest game on our regular season schedule but I like our chances.
LSU
While LSU will still likely be the most overall talented team on our schedule for next year, they may - as I mentioned previously - quite possibly end up being only the third or fourth most difficult team we'll face in the regular season. Despite LSU fans' eternal optimism about next season, they are losing a ton of talent and leadership. In addition to their departing Seniors, 10 of their Juniors are leaving early. On offense, they are losing the starters at the same two very important positions on the Offensive Line as Texas A&M (Left Tackle and Center), two very good Running Backs, and a Tight End. On defense, though, is where the real losses are taking place with LSU losing seven starters on that side of the ball. They're losing all four starters on their Defensive Line, their most productive Linebacker, their number one Corner, and their number one safety. LSU had four defensive players earn All-American and/or All-SEC honors this past season; they are all gone. Alabama's most likely "problem-area" for this upcoming season looks to be the Offensive Line. However, LSU will be hard-pressed to take advantage of that, having lost all four starters on their Defensive Line. Throw in two weeks for Alabama to prepare for LSU, at home, and the Tide looks like a solid favorite over the Tigers this season.
Ole Miss
Wait, Ole Miss? A team that didn't really show that they belonged on the field with Alabama last season? Yes, Ole Miss. The Rebels, due mostly to the rest of the schedule being found lacking, will most likely be the second or third most difficult test for the Crimson Tide in the regular season for 2013. Ole Miss improved a lot over the course of the 2012 season under new Head Coach Hugh Freeze. If Ole Miss makes the big second-year improvement that many teams do, they could very well be the dark horse in the SEC West next season. At the end of the day, though, the presence of Ole Miss in this list points much more to the relative ease of Alabama's schedule than to Ole Miss' likely strength.
Mississipppi State
The Bulldogs are on this list for one reason and one reason alone: it's a possible trap game. Going on the road to face a fairly good SEC team a week after playing a big game like LSU at home has all the marking of a let-down game for the Tide. Of course, the Bulldogs haven't been able to show up in games where they have a shot at beaten a top-level team for several years. Until they actually prove that they can do it, though, there's no real reason to expect them to this season, either.
Comparing those teams' outlooks to Alabama's outlook and, especially, comparing the match-ups seems to be very much in Alabama's favor. Yes, Alabama is replacing a lot on the Offensive Line. The Tide is also returning a lot of experience and leadership on that side of the ball as well, including the number one rated Quarterback in the country from 2012 as well as fully stocked cupboards at the Running Back and Receiver positions. With just a little bit of growth at some key positions, the 2013 Crimson Tide Defense may end up giving the 2011 version a good run for its money as the best Alabama Defense in recent memory, at least. Alabama may quite possibly end up being double-digit favorites in all but two or three games this coming season, including the potential match-ups in an SEC Championship Game and a BCS National Championship Game appearance.
In spite of the odds against winning three in a row, look for the Crimson Tide to be virtually everyone's clear favorite to win it all in 2013 by the time fall practice rolls around. That'll be the first time in this four year run, incidentally, that you'll have been able to say that.