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  1. #1
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    Alabama in a class by itself - Article: "Recruiting by the Numbers"

    A good article on CBS Sports as to why the recruiting sites get it right. In the 2nd half of the article the a discussion turns to team rankings. Here is a key quote:

    "Here, I only allowed for one exception: Alabama, which has claimed the No. 1 recruiting class in the nation in Rivals' estimation four of the last five years. As a result, the Crimson Tide's numbers are so far ahead of the rest of the pack in that span that they effectively constitute a class of their own. Of course, the corresponding results on the field make the Tide the single most compelling example of the rankings' success as a tool for predicting outcomes. At the same time, though, Bama has so vastly outperformed even its most well-heeled peers in those rankings that it would be frankly misleading to group them under the same heading. So for our purposes, in this case, Alabama stands alone."


    http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/eye-on-college-football/21641769/recruiting-by-the-numbers-why-the-sites-get-the-rankings-right

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  3. #2
    BamaNation All-American Al A Bama's Avatar
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    Re: Alabama in a class by itself - Article: "Recruiting by the Numbers"

    Quote Originally Posted by dathbama View Post
    A good article on CBS Sports as to why the recruiting sites get it right. In the 2nd half of the article the a discussion turns to team rankings. Here is a key quote:

    "Here, I only allowed for one exception: Alabama, which has claimed the No. 1 recruiting class in the nation in Rivals' estimation four of the last five years. As a result, the Crimson Tide's numbers are so far ahead of the rest of the pack in that span that they effectively constitute a class of their own. Of course, the corresponding results on the field make the Tide the single most compelling example of the rankings' success as a tool for predicting outcomes. At the same time, though, Bama has so vastly outperformed even its most well-heeled peers in those rankings that it would be frankly misleading to group them under the same heading. So for our purposes, in this case, Alabama stands alone."


    http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/eye-on-college-football/21641769/recruiting-by-the-numbers-why-the-sites-get-the-rankings-right
    It's not just recruiting good players, it's also DEVELOPING them: leading them to be the best they can be.

    That was a good article and I liked that quote from the article.
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  4. #3
    BamaNation First Team CrimsonBeachBum's Avatar
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    Re: Alabama in a class by itself - Article: "Recruiting by the Numbers"

    Nice read. Thanks for posting.
    "You got any biscuits fer sale in-nare?" "Reckin what you like to eat in-nare?"

  5. #4
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    Re: Alabama in a class by itself - Article: "Recruiting by the Numbers"

    Quote Originally Posted by Al A Bama View Post
    It's not just recruiting good players, it's also DEVELOPING them: leading them to be the best they can be.

    That was a good article and I liked that quote from the article.
    yup. as soon as i saw auburn's class (with a few 5 stars) the first thought that came to my mind was "how many of them will ever actually play a down?"

  6. #5
    BamaNation Second Team Bama Bird's Avatar
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    Re: Alabama in a class by itself - Article: "Recruiting by the Numbers"

    The amazing thing about our recruiting successes is our Star:Bust ratio. We've had very few players that were truly disappointing (I can really only think of two, and that was partially due to how deep we are at each position). Spurrier said this week "Recruiting classes don't always turn out- but they always seem to turn out at Alabama". I think Saban is not only good at landing who he wants, but just assembling a good team

    And Auburn is the complete opposite of that lol. I can only think of a few players that actually turned out well, or even stayed longer than two years.

  7. #6
    BamaNation All-American colbysullivan's Avatar
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    Re: Alabama in a class by itself - Article: "Recruiting by the Numbers"

    Quote Originally Posted by davefrat View Post
    yup. as soon as i saw auburn's class (with a few 5 stars) the first thought that came to my mind was "how many of them will ever actually play a down?"
    that's assuming they even get on campus to begin with

  8. #7
    BamaNation All-American KrAzY3's Avatar
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    Re: Alabama in a class by itself - Article: "Recruiting by the Numbers"

    I think there's a bit of misleading data in the whole, good recruiting means success on the field stuff. For one, there are not many teams recruiting well on a consistent basis, that are not winning. So, it's a chicken and the egg thing. Does the success on the field create success in recruiting or vice versa?

    One thing that was telling, was ESPN showed a stat listing the top 5 recruiting schools over the past 5 years (If I recall correctly) and they showed winning percentages to. Alabama was #1, with an average ranking of #2 in recruiting, but the winning percentage part was a completely other ballpark. Alabama has a winning percentage in the 900s, no one else was even in the 800s. It was 700s, and mostly 600s (may be even a 500). Alabama is doing better in recruiting, but as you see from these ratings, it's not like they are just blowing everyone away. Depending on your service, Florida, Ohio St., Notre Dame, and even Ole Miss are rather close if not ahead.

    So, clearly Alabama is developing and/or evaluating talent better. I suppose it's a bit of both, but clearly it's not just about recruiting a highly ranked class. Ask Auburn, their previous season did not at all back up their recent recruiting success.
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  9. #8
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    Re: Alabama in a class by itself - Article: "Recruiting by the Numbers"

    That's a great read. I got a wide grin when I read the line about how "the Crimson Tide...effectively constitute a class of their own." A few other observations:

    The talent differential escalates by an increasing amount at each successive level, as evidenced by the percentage victories of each star level versus the one immediately beneath it from 2010 to 2012
    * 2 star teams had a win margin of +6.6% versus 1 star teams
    * 3 stars had a win margin of +17.0% versus 2 stars
    * 4 stars had a win margin of +28.0% versus 3 stars
    * 5 star teams had a win margin of +32.6 versus 4 stars
    So, 5 star teams aren't just better than 4 star teams; even excluding Alabama, which would have made this trend more pronounced, they're WAY better

    Ga Tech is a 2 star team. Eight ACC teams, including such powerhouses as Maryland and NC State, were 3 stars or better. Now we know why Paul Johnson has underperformed: he has recruited poorly. I'd extrapolate from that the following - top talent is not drawn to his system. Imagine if Alabama had hired him. Probably he'd have gotten 3 or 4 star teams, but that would put us in Ole Miss' league, and below Auburn's. Ponder that awhile

    Auburn in 2013 will outperform preseason expectations by more than any other team from a power conference. How well Malzahn recruits in 2014 will determine his long term success

    Notre Dame 2012 was not a fluke; nor was tOSU

    Short Brady Hoke and Bob Stoops (it's too late to short Mack Brown)

    I'd wager that most busts are, in fact, coaching mistakes, in one of three ways
    * Signing a talented guy despite his being a cultural misfit for the team. E.g., few if any USC players (when they were indisputably good) would have thrived under Saban's discipline. Isaiah Crowell would have, but washed out at UGa without it.
    * Failing to develop talent. See "Mack Brown"
    * Poor head coach leadership of the coaching staff and the team. See "Gene Chizik" and, possibly, "Mark Richt"

    As good as the past five years have been for Alabama football, the future (see 2013 recruiting) is no less bright. The only real concern at this point is making sure that the transition to the post-Saban era, whether in one year or 10, is seamless. Great companies, when they pull it off (and they more often fail than succeed), overwhelmingly do it with homegrown talent (see Jim Collins' "Good To Great" for more on this). I hope and pray that Mal and Saban get this; my hope is undergirded by Kirby Smart's seeming to be happy where he is, from which I presume he knows he's the head coach in-waiting, and we're not foolish enough to constrain his recruiting by so designating him. If Kirby gets the "Process" (a fair bet), and as effective a recruiter as he has proven to be, unless he's a leadership disaster he's the only logical choice to allow Alabama to do what no one has done before; sustain a dynasty (yeah; I said it) through and beyond a head coaching transition.

  10. #9
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    Re: Alabama in a class by itself - Article: "Recruiting by the Numbers"

    Our recruiting has allowed us unprecedented depth and versatility and I think that's what has set us apart. In '11, we won mostly with defense with a lot of NFL level talent. This was AJ's 1st year starting and he had to grow into the player he has become. In '12 we lost a lot defensively-our D had to grow up and a lot of the elite young players had to get game experience as the year went on. We were able to rely more on our OL and AJ, but despite this we had significant injuries at RB and WR. How many teams could lose 2 of 4 of the starting WRs and RBs and win a championship? We could because TJ and Cooper were able to step in and play at a championship level.

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