Bama has been ranked #1 5 of the last 6 years on Rivals.com

Probius

Hall of Fame
Mar 19, 2004
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That is a pretty common mistake humans make in regards to statistical information. We don't naturally have a good complex mathematical understanding beyond basic number line concepts. When presented with large data, we tend to pay too much credence to outlier cases and not enough on the larger trends. Highly though of recruits not panning out makes the news, underrated recruits exceeding their expectations makes a narrative, but the vast majority of players who perform in line with their expectations is not reported.

The book Freakanomics does a great job of explaining this problem highlighting the fear of accidental discharge of a weapon by children. In this country, there is a several orders of magnitude difference between the child deaths by accidental discharge than home pool drownings. The public outcry is clearly more slanted towards weapon locks and not towards proper gating and locks around pools.

Similarly, every Johnny Manziel gets propped up as the plucky guy major schools scoffed at playing QB. Every 5-star that transfers within a few years gets a headline. Guys like Dee Milliner, Rolando McClain, Barrett Jones, Julio Jones, Trent Richardson, Dre Kirkpatrick, Dont'a Hightower, DJ Fluker, Cyrus Koundijio, TJ Yeldon, Amari Cooper, HaHa Clinton-Dix, AJ McCarron, Nico Johnson, Eddie Lacy, and Mark Barron aren't used as reminders that the services get it right more often than not. They use Burton Scott, Travell Dixon, Alonzo Lawrence, Tyler Love, and Brett Calloway as proof positive that recruiting services can't get it right.

Each of our highly ranked busts usually had some signs before hand. Burton Scott was always more of an athlete who didn't have a solid grip on a long-term position. He flopped as a receiver, struggled as a corner, and transferred. Zo Lawrence really just leaped up the rankings in December through January due to All-Star games but there were decently well-known concerns about his ability to handle the college classroom and absorb a complex playbook. Tyler Love spent most of his career injured. Brett Calloway was always thought to be a little too stiff to play tailback at the SEC level of competition...probably a lot like Burton Scott: a great deal of athleticism but no defined position in a more specialized college game. We also have some highly rated prospects who just got stuck behind other exceptionally talented players. Tana Patrick and Jonathan Atchinson come to mind in that regard.
Well said, and the funny thing is I am listening to the Freakonomics podcast right now. This is something I see in my family all the time. It is rare to find someone who bases their worldview on reason.
 

bamafaninOhiO

All-American
May 11, 2010
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Well said, and the funny thing is I am listening to the Freakonomics podcast right now. This is something I see in my family all the time. It is rare to find someone who bases their worldview on reason.
5 #1 classes in 6 years has done something else that is unprecedented; created such depth in talent that practice becomes almost, if not harder, than game day.

At no point in the season does the team face more talent than they do at practice...if they get the starting job, they've proven it against superior talent to most teams they'll face on saturdays.

So, being a second string player on bama is not a sign of failure, just a sign of incredible depth at almost every position.
 

Mystical

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Sep 28, 2009
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I stumbled on this old article about Bama's 2008 class. I love the perspective of the article, and it's prediction of things to come.

http://sports.outsidethebeltway.com/2008/02/alabama-2008-recruiting-class/

"The scary part will be if Saban can continue to be as successful at recruiting in future classes as he was in this one. Then the Tide really will be back on top."


Indeed.
"This was Andy Dufresne escaping from Shawshank Prison" Now we all sipping lemonade at the beach.
 

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