What are the chances for a threepeat?

RollTide1224

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Feb 18, 2008
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I know VA Tech has already had their top CB blow his acl and just had a returning starter at safety retire due to injury. I can't see Logan Thomas being that much of a challenge for us, that dude is awful. Combine that with our recent track record in opening games and I feel safe thinking we handle that one pretty easily.

Auburn will certainly be interesting they will no doubt throw everything they have at us and that place will be a mad house.
 

KrAzY3

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Jan 18, 2006
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Alabama was fortunate last year, because injuries happened to positions of strength. They lost what, coming into spring would be considered the #2 and #3 running back and along with Duron never playing, they lost Black, White, and since they can't all be colors, Bell as well. If they didn't have fantastic depth, the team could have had huge issues running and passing the ball. Just remove Cooper and Yeldon from the picture and I'm not sure how the offense would have looked.

So, Alabama has already lost 4 players thus far. Yes, they were not integral, but coming into last season we wouldn't have imagined that Cooper and Yeldon would have been so important either. This puts more pressure at other positions, and a couple of positions that had season ending injuries last year had depth from one of those four players. How well Jarrick and Fowler are doing matters more now. Also, remember that pressure that Phillip transferring placed on the depth at QB.

Until we see this team at spring practice, and subsequently how this team looks after fall practice, it's really premature to arrive to a conclusion. I have high hopes, but I do have to be realistic in the sense that Alabama does need a certain amount of luck to get to a championship game.

I do have to question the basic math from the original post though. Alabama has won three of the last four, and prior to that Alabama wasn't really playing with Nick's guys. Some people would arrive to the conclusion that Alabama has about a 75% chance. That sounds a little high to me, but if Alabama can get past their first two games, I'd put the odds around there.
 

jabcmb

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Feb 1, 2006
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When is the SEC helmet schedule going to be ready?

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I always believed a team had to have good injury luck to win a NC, but Bama proved me wrong last year. I think we'll know after the first two games this year if there will be a three peat. Not overlooking or disrespecting other teams, but I think what Alabama reveals early will be very telling.
 

selmaborntidefan

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What looks to be a favorable schedule can change drastically. What if VT has an unknown stud developing (Emmitt Smith in the 87 Fla game)? Or a key injury. Or off the field incidents.

While I realize we do it, you really cannot make the national title your main goal. Luck plays a role - look at the last 2 years, we've lost in November & won but only because others lost. The national title can be your DREAM goal but you need a bit of luck.

Given the past 2 years and anger out there - it will take a miracle if we lose. Our only hope if we lose is that it's early and we drill the rest of the schedule. We will NOT play for it if we lose in November.
 

BamaMoon

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I always believed a team had to have good injury luck to win a NC, but Bama proved me wrong last year. I think we'll know after the first two games this year if there will be a three peat. Not overlooking or disrespecting other teams, but I think what Alabama reveals early will be very telling.
Conventional wisdom agrees with you...typically bad injury luck makes a good team average, but what happened last year just shows how deep we are at almost every position.

We did have "luck" at two key positions though...o-line and qb. But otherwise, we overcame some serious injuries to still win it all!
 
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TRU

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Oct 3, 2000
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"I do have to question the basic math from the original post though. Alabama has won three of the last four, and prior to that Alabama wasn't really playing with Nick's guys. Some people would arrive to the conclusion that Alabama has about a 75% chance. That sounds a little high to me, but if Alabama can get past their first two games, I'd put the odds around there."

For this to be true the average probability of winning each game in the season would be 98%. If you assign a probability of 100% win to all games except the aTm, LSU and NC games, and assign these a probability of a win by the Tide to 90% in each of these three games, The probability of winning the NC remains at 72%. If you allow a loss to either LSU or aTm and require a win in the other regular season game and a win in the NC, the necessary probability of winning each of these games must be 87% (with a 100% probability of winning the other 10 games) for the overall probability of winning the NC to rise to 75%.

And I would note that there is NEVER a 100% probability that a given team will win any given game. If there were, it would not be worth playing the game at all.
 

Tiderollin32

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Mar 12, 2012
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This year's team was modified in respect to the fact we had more of an efficient offense when it counted. As mentioned in 2010 we had leadership and scheduling problems. Last year's defense was good but not great but had an offense that could carry it throughout the season. This year we return more on defense in terms of leadership and position than we did last year. No matter how well our offense improves under Nussmeier our bread and butter will always be the ability to play sound defense and when we do that with the combination of our offense theirs not many teams that will beat us. JMO
 

KrAzY3

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For this to be true the average probability of winning each game in the season would be 98%. If you assign a probability of 100% win to all games except the aTm, LSU and NC games, and assign these a probability of a win by the Tide to 90% in each of these three games, The probability of winning the NC remains at 72%.
It is true though, Alabama won 3 out of the last 4. Their national championship winning percentage stands at 75% of that period. You pick arbitrary statistics and assign them importance, it doesn't make your conclusion valid.

I'm not arguing with your premise that winning a national championship is incredibly difficult, but we're witnessing something special. As of this moment in time, I'd give Alabama about a 50% chance of making the national championship game for instance. If I wanted to, I could come up with some data to support that claim...
 

TRU

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Probability is probability and the point is that one needs a lot of good luck to pull of an NC, no matter what the talent and preparation is. Things can go wrong by chance and one must recognize that a failure to meet such a difficult goal is just as likely due to chance as to anything else. If the Tide drops two games this year, it is likely to be due to chance as much as anything else.

That said, in my original model, the chances of the Tide repeating in 2013 are slightly greater than flipping a quarter three times and having it come up heads all three times. In that context, the odds do not seem that daunting.
 

Skeeterpop

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Jul 18, 2008
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Since we have a 1 out of 2 chance of winning the first game and we have to win 13 games at least I am going to say our chances are 1/8192 or .0122%



At least thats the mathmatical probability.

But more likely about a 25% chance which is high for the sake of predicting a champion.
 

Quicksilver

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While it may prove to be the case that a 1 loss SEC team makes it to the BCS NC game, I do not think that Alabama will be that team. I think that Alabama needs to run the table in order to get to the national title game for 2013. The reason I say this pertains to strength of schedule. Apart from TAM and LSU, we don't play anybody that the pollsters and computers will care about. Yes, it is possible that we could lose to TAM and still win the West, but we would be dependent on TAM losing at least one SEC game along the way. However, TAM has a relatively weak schedule also. From what I can see, LSU is the only team (after us) that looks like a serious threat to TAM during the regular season. So, bottom line for me, we need (a) injury luck and (b) to win on 9/14/13. If those two conditions are met, I like Alabama's chances of doing the threepeat, a lot.
 

MOAN

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While it may prove to be the case that a 1 loss SEC team makes it to the BCS NC game, I do not think that Alabama will be that team. I think that Alabama needs to run the table in order to get to the national title game for 2013. The reason I say this pertains to strength of schedule. Apart from TAM and LSU, we don't play anybody that the pollsters and computers will care about. Yes, it is possible that we could lose to TAM and still win the West, but we would be dependent on TAM losing at least one SEC game along the way. However, TAM has a relatively weak schedule also. From what I can see, LSU is the only team (after us) that looks like a serious threat to TAM during the regular season. So, bottom line for me, we need (a) injury luck and (b) to win on 9/14/13. If those two conditions are met, I like Alabama's chances of doing the threepeat, a lot.
This is the last year I believe that a one loss SEC champion can be kept out of the championship as next year there will be a four team playoff. And I agree if any one loss SEC champion has 2 undefeated major conference teams to compete with they will be out.
 

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