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    BamaNation Hall of Fame RTR91's Avatar
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    Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numbers

    During the season, fans try to say which team is better because this team put up ____ of yards against that defense and vice versa. Phil Steele looked at the numbers from the 2012 season to see how each defense and offense did compared to its opponents.

    Alabama had the #1 defense by holding its opponents to 163.88 yards less than their average. The offense was #21 by gaining 73.99 more yards than its opponents' average.

    Here are the lists. Defense Offense
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    BamaNation Hall of Fame GreatDanish's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

    I keep this same statistic up to date throughout the season, including these same numbers as percentages which, IMO, is the better metric. That, plus, the same stats except with regard to scoring offense and defense. Like most models, it begins to be particularly effective about halfway through the season.
    These are the best predictive statistics I have found. This statistic exposed the "Texas #1 Rushing D" in 2009, but all people cared about was the raw "rushing defense" statistic.

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    Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

    aTm way ahead on offense. I wonder if they'll be so prolific again next year.
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    BamaNation All-American Al A Bama's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

    Quote Originally Posted by Nolcbear View Post
    aTm way ahead on offense. I wonder if they'll be so prolific again next year.

    With Johnny Football being in a strenuous ONLINE Strength and Conditioning Program, I'm not sure he will be physically up to doing what he did last year.
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    BamaNation All-American TexasTideFan's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

    Quote Originally Posted by Nolcbear View Post
    aTm way ahead on offense. I wonder if they'll be so prolific again next year.
    Who knows? Johnny Online has got to be the most untouchable QB I have ever seen and on top of that, throws passes like darts. It was like he was wearing Teflon against OU. The dude just doesn't seem to take a clean hit. We didn't really hit him at all. LSU rattled him a couple of times and he seemed to lose his mojo late against them They will probably be prolific if they can get the same blocking from their O-line.

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    BamaNation Hall of Fame cbi1972's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

    Quote Originally Posted by TexasTideFan View Post
    Who knows? Johnny Online has got to be the most untouchable QB I have ever seen and on top of that, throws passes like darts. It was like he was wearing Teflon against OU. The dude just doesn't seem to take a clean hit. We didn't really hit him at all. LSU rattled him a couple of times and he seemed to lose his mojo late against them They will probably be prolific if they can get the same blocking from their O-line.
    That's a huge IF considering who they lost. Luke Joeckel could be the #1 pick.
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    BamaNation All-American TexasTideFan's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

    Quote Originally Posted by cbi1972 View Post
    That's a huge IF considering who they lost. Luke Joeckel could be the #1 pick.
    Yep, big IF.

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    BamaNation Hall of Fame uafan4life's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

    Actually, those stats are a little shallow, in my opinion. Certainly better than raw numbers, yes, but not the best metric for that type of comparison.

    A better comparison is not raw overall average versus raw overall average but rather a percentage average of individual game results versus overall average - meaning an average of what the unit (offense or defense) did against each opposing unit relative to what that unit averaged doing for the season expressed as a percentage of difference. Also, rather than just total yards, I'd rather see a matrix of total yards, total points, yards per play, yards per rush, yards per pass, passing efficiency, plays per point (or 7 points), and scoring drive percentage.

    Not that I'm picky.
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    Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

    Quote Originally Posted by RTR91 View Post
    During the season, fans try to say which team is better because this team put up ____ of yards against that defense and vice versa. Phil Steele looked at the numbers from the 2012 season to see how each defense and offense did compared to its opponents.

    Alabama had the #1 defense by holding its opponents to 163.88 yards less than their average. The offense was #21 by gaining 73.99 more yards than its opponents' average.
    As they say there are lies ____ lies and statistics. On the offensive side for us especially we had several games where most of the third and all of the fourth quarter we were just trying to run clock. How do you factor that in with just numbers?

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    Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

    Quote Originally Posted by uafan4life View Post
    Actually, those stats are a little shallow, in my opinion. Certainly better than raw numbers, yes, but not the best metric for that type of comparison.

    A better comparison is not raw overall average versus raw overall average but rather a percentage average of individual game results versus overall average - meaning an average of what the unit (offense or defense) did against each opposing unit relative to what that unit averaged doing for the season expressed as a percentage of difference. Also, rather than just total yards, I'd rather see a matrix of total yards, total points, yards per play, yards per rush, yards per pass, passing efficiency, plays per point (or 7 points), and scoring drive percentage.

    Not that I'm picky.
    There is actually a good iphone app that does that. Can't remember the name but you should be able to find it.

  12. #11
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    Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

    Quote Originally Posted by Al A Bama View Post
    With Johnny Football being in a strenuous ONLINE Strength and Conditioning Program, I'm not sure he will be physically up to doing what he did last year.
    ... World of Warcraft?
    Honey Badger can take what the Tide gives him and like it.

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    Senior Administrator TIDE-HSV's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

    Quote Originally Posted by BigBama76 View Post
    As they say there are lies ____ lies and statistics. On the offensive side for us especially we had several games where most of the third and all of the fourth quarter we were just trying to run clock. How do you factor that in with just numbers?
    Exactly. And it didn't just affect team stats, it greatly hurt AJ's stats, because he was largely shut down in the last quarter of most of our games. It also affected the stats of our RBs, because, even though they were running more plays, we were more or less satisfied to go with 3-4 yards between tackle and get a first down. Of course, some of the teams were so beaten down by then, even those plays went for long gainers or TDs...
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    Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

    Quote Originally Posted by BigBama76 View Post
    As they say there are lies ____ lies and statistics. On the offensive side for us especially we had several games where most of the third and all of the fourth quarter we were just trying to run clock. How do you factor that in with just numbers?
    Just add a TOP factor.

    uafan4life's matrix would be best but just add the TOP. Not the easiest info to keep up with but gives the clearest data.

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