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  1. #14
    BamaNation Hall of Fame IH8Orange's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

    Yardage is a nice talking point, but there's not a direct correlation between it and the effectiveness of a unit on a team. I'll take a team that gives up 600 yards a game as long as all those yards are between the 20s and I'll take an offense that only gains 200 yards a game if they're always scoring more than the opposition.

    Tennessee is ranked above us in offensive performance, but against common opposition (Mississippi State, Missouri, and Georgia), we outgained UT's offense 486 yards to 476 yards. We did it on 10 less offensive plays per game, on average, so our yards per play is more than a yard greater (7.14 to 6.09) than theirs.

    So how did UT get ranked higher than us? It was probably the 633 yards against Akron (giving up 450 yards per game, on average against their daunting MAC schedule) and the 713 yards against Troy (Sun Belt school, giving up 434 yards per game) that skewed their average enough to outrank us. Of course, you can't beat on the viles for running up the score, because they were only up against Akron by two TDs midway through the 4th quarter and needed an insurance TD pass from Tyler Bray with a little over 6 minutes left before going into protect the lead mode. Against Troy, they were TIED with the Trojans until the winning score with about a minute and a half left in the game. Troy subsequently drove to the Tennessee 40 and just couldn't connect on two pass attempts to take the game to OT.

    So, UT is ranked above us because they had to fight tooth and nail to beat a couple of schools that are barely above FCS level and should have been playing fourth stringers by the third quarter. These statistics are about as useless as Roy Adams' liver. Is there anyone that truly believes if UT and Alabama played the same defense with all other things equal, that UT's offense would gain 50+ yards more than Alabama's offense? That's what these numbers imply and using the numbers against common opponents from last season, that's been shown to be empirically incorrect.
    "If it feels good, then you're not doing it right" - Coach Scott Cochran

    "Sharing a conference with Nick Saban is like sharing a steak with a lion. Only one of you wins that battle. And it's not you." - Gregg Doyel

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  3. #15
    BamaNation Hall of Fame JPT4Bama's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

    I don't trust stats. That's why I rarely use them unless it's to my advantage.
    Ask me about my vow of silence.

  4. #16
    BamaNation All-American Florida Tom's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

    The only stat that really matters is the final score, we do ok on that one.

  5. #17
    BamaNation All-American B1GTide's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

    Using this model for points scored and points allowed demonstrated that aTm was your toughest opponent last year. In fact, it predicted a 30-30 outcome at that point in the season. It also demonstrated that Notre Dame was outclassed, predicting an Alabama win by 10. The only game that it really missed was LSU, where it had Alabama winning by 10+.

  6. #18
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    Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

    Quote Originally Posted by Bamatide44 View Post
    Just add a TOP factor.

    uafan4life's matrix would be best but just add the TOP. Not the easiest info to keep up with but gives the clearest data.
    What's a TOP factor?

  7. #19
    BamaNation All-SEC willie52's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

    Time of Posession
    Please stand behind our troops or feel free to stand in front of them.

  8. #20
    BamaNation Hall of Fame IH8Orange's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

    Quote Originally Posted by JPT4Bama View Post
    I don't trust stats. That's why I rarely use them unless it's to my advantage.
    50.001% of people agree with you.
    "If it feels good, then you're not doing it right" - Coach Scott Cochran

    "Sharing a conference with Nick Saban is like sharing a steak with a lion. Only one of you wins that battle. And it's not you." - Gregg Doyel

  9. #21
    BamaNation Hall of Fame IH8Orange's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Steele Averages Offensive & Defensive Production Compared to Opponent's Numb

    In my opinion, a great offense controls the clock to keep their defense rested, they ensure that drives upon which they do not score at least result in an advantage in field position, and they score (preferably touchdowns).

    To get a good measure of performance, I would primarily look at time of possession, yards per play, percentage of drives that culminate in TDs, and percentage of drives that culminate in FGs. I would assign weights of 3, 6, 10, and 5, respectively to those factors.
    "If it feels good, then you're not doing it right" - Coach Scott Cochran

    "Sharing a conference with Nick Saban is like sharing a steak with a lion. Only one of you wins that battle. And it's not you." - Gregg Doyel

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