Link: Warped Thinking by AP Voters

Finebaum interviewed Guilbeau yesterday and tried not to laugh at his reasoning/explanation for UGA.

1) The article starts a bit arrogantly with an undercurrent of "how dare you vote for anybody else but Alabama."

2) However - using the "easiest route to undefeated" logic, Tim Brando's insane pick of Louisville is more rational. Funny, I don't recall this logic applying and putting Boise number one a few years ago.

3) So Georgia, who WON the SEC in 2002 and 2005 will now be motivated because they LOST it? But they lost in 2011, too, and though I didn't see the game weren't they actually leading that one at halftime? If that was motivation shouldn't they have won it last year? And shouldn't LSU be the current national champs?

The problem lies with assigning way too much value to being undefeated. Being undefeated can mean you're great or it could mean you didn't play anybody (i.e. Notre Dame). Match that with the voters trying to guess the final poll positions almost like trying to win the spread game in Vegas and you have a self fulfilling prophesy. I think they will finish high therefore they do.

Not all voters think that way, many ignorantly just pick the best team with the information at hand (! shock). But most of those don't work in the press. Press people feel like they have to guess well to maintain the illusion that they are an authority on sports. They don't realize we actually know most of them are flunkies that couldn't get a real job.

selmaborntidefan said:

1) The article starts a bit arrogantly with an undercurrent of "how dare you vote for anybody else but Alabama."

2) However - using the "easiest route to undefeated" logic, Tim Brando's insane pick of Louisville is more rational. Funny, I don't recall this logic applying and putting Boise number one a few years ago.

3) So Georgia, who WON the SEC in 2002 and 2005 will now be motivated because they LOST it? But they lost in 2011, too, and though I didn't see the game weren't they actually leading that one at halftime? If that was motivation shouldn't they have won it last year? And shouldn't LSU be the current national champs?

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How dare you use logic!!!?

What amazes me is the stupidity of some of the predictions. Guilbeau say's of Georgia, "I think they'll get some breaks".
Now, maybe I'm naive, but exactly how can someone make that prediction about any team in America?
That's kind of like predicting, "I think Alabama will fumble on the 12th play of a drive in the seventh game of the season".
I mean, what's the basis? How can you possibly know that?
Oddly enough I used to like Guilbeau when he wrote for the Mobile Press. Not anymore. sip

Alasippi said:

What amazes me is the stupidity of some of the predictions. Guilbeau say's of Georgia, "I think they'll get some breaks".
Now, maybe I'm naive, but exactly how can someone make that prediction about any team in America?
That's kind of like predicting, "I think Alabama will fumble on the 12th play of a drive in the seventh game of the season".
I mean, what's the basis? How can you possibly know that?
Oddly enough I used to like Guilbeau when he wrote for the Mobile Press. Not anymore. sip

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What amazes me that alot of our fans on here get upset becuase someone does not vote Bama # 1 in a pre-season poll. We got all but 2 first place votes and we are still not happy. The AP poll does not even figure into the BCS so it really does not matter anyways. The polls have worked in our favor the last two years so we should not be complaining about someone's pre-season reasoning.

TiderMan said:

What amazes me that alot of our fans on here get upset becuase someone does not vote Bama # 1 in a pre-season poll. We got all but 2 first place votes and we are still not happy. The AP poll does not even figure into the BCS so it really does not matter anyways. The polls have worked in our favor the last two years so we should not be complaining about someone's pre-season reasoning.

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It's not that the votes weren't for Alabama. It was the reasoning. At least give us something we can read and say "Might not like it, but I see your point." Instead, we look at it and say "Uh, that can go for any of the 121 FBS teams."

Bad answer? What was given.


Good answer? Urban Meyer has been successful everywhere he's been, going unbeaten at Utah and winning 2 titles at Florida. He has a returning QB Heisman candidate, they're in their second year of his system, the schedule is not overly difficult, and they return X number of starters. Plus, Meyer is the only coach to ever beat Nick Saban in a championship game, when he won the 2008 SEC championship game. And I think Bama makes it but Meyer ends the streak.

While we could quibble over the fine points, that would at least be logical. Certainly more so than what we got.

Georgia? Murray and Gurley give them a steady pass/rush mix, their defense is good despite losing X guys to the NFL, the schedule is front heavy - meaning an early loss won't be fatal, and they know they can hang with Alabama, one play away last year.

Gee, even my weakest point there is better than thinking someone gets the breaks.

These reporters just want attention. They are just like Tim Brando doing anything to get their name out there.

While I don't agree with their voting and think their reasons are not very sound, I have to give them credit for owning their vote and defending their picks. That's more than most media members and coaches will do.

I would love for the AP and the Coaches Poll to post how each voting member voted each week. There needs to be transparency in poll voting (especially the coaches poll). But this is not a new conversation.

tidefanbeezer said:

I would love for the AP and the Coaches Poll to post how each voting member voted each week. There needs to be transparency in poll voting (especially the coaches poll). But this is not a new conversation.

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You'll be able to see how the AP voters picked here. I don't thnk the coach's votes are made public until near the end of the season.

This all has a way of sorting itself out. Wasn't Notre Dame unranked at the beginning of last season?

NBF_Bama_Cavalry said:

You'll be able to see how the AP voters picked here. I don't thnk the coach's votes are made public until near the end of the season.

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Thanks for the link. Didn't know that site existed.

the coaches poll makes the final poll voting public, but not the weekly polls. I'd like to see them published each week.

Gentlemen, the first rule is this: Never confuse a voter with facts.

rtcjny said:

These reporters just want attention. They are just like Tim Brando doing anything to get their name out there.

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I agree. While most take it seriously and I think they try their best, there will usually be a couple who throw in something strange, so they can get themselves talked about.

it's not going to get any better with the four team playoff

Every year we judge prior preseason polls by how they ended up. Why shouldn't pollsters rank teams on how they believe they will end up being ranked?

I've always thought that there should be two polls. 1) How good you think a team is, i.e. the Vegas poll. Anyone below you, you should be favored against on a neutral field. Anyone above you should be favored over you. And 2) where teams deserve to be ranked based on on the field wins and losses.

The first few weeks of the season, these polls could be very different. Any upsets would have you ranked higher in Poll B, but probably not in Poll A. At the end of the season, these polls should converge, but not in all regards. Last year Notre Dame, going into the NC game, should clearly have been ranked #1 in Poll B, but probably around #4-5 in Poll A.

I think an average of both polls (or some ratio) is the proper way to vote as a pollster.