By Travis Haney | ESPN.com
AP Photo/David J. PhillipKevin Sumlin leads Texas A&M into a season under the spotlight.
Here’s the formula: If "X" happens, then "Y" could occur as a result. It’s cause and effect. We begin with the SEC, examining the high-wire act that Texas A&M could become, what Steve Spurrier’s timeline should be (and what South Carolina's title chances are this season) and who could rise as a Heisman candidate.
1. If Alabama clobbers Texas A&M in Week 3, winning by 20-plus points, then keep an eye on the Aggies.
With all the Johnny Football headlines leading and extending into camp, some are suggesting that A&M could be this year’s version of the Arkansas disaster.
A collapse to that extent, which saw the Razorbacks go in the tank after offseason turmoil, an early surprise loss to Louisiana-Monroe and a subsequent beatdown against Alabama, doesn’t seem conceivable. Not with a bright guy like Kevin Sumlin as the Aggies head coach and not with the relatively light schedule they have beyond the Tide and a trip to LSU. A nonconference route of Rice, Sam Houston State, SMU and UTEP can help a team get well.
Maybe the start of the season will have a calming effect on the program, and that’s what they’re hoping in College Station. But we’ll have to continue to take the team’s temperature at various points of the season, to see if the fatigue of this offseason will have any sort of impact down the road.
“I could see this not ending well,” one coach said to me last month at ESPN's headquarters in Bristol, Conn.
I still doubt it gets really sideways even without Johnny Manziel, if it came to that as a result of the NCAA investigation into his autograph signings, but it’s certainly worth monitoring. If the Aggies are at their best, the SEC West is going to feature a compelling three-team division battle. If they fade from contention early (forgetting for a moment all the discussion that would generate around Manziel and the team), it will change the entire dynamic of the SEC title race.
2. If South Carolina wins the SEC title and goes to a BCS game, then Steve Spurrier could consider retirement.
Did I say "could" or "should"? Spurrier has said this summer, like every summer, that he has three or four years left in him. A big part of that is a message to recruits -- “Hey, still come to South Carolina!” -- and a part of that is, well, Spurrier is currently enjoying himself. Most coaches do when they’re winning 9-11 games a year, and South Carolina’s back-to-back 11-win seasons represent the most successful seasons in the school’s history.
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Jeremy Brevard/USA TODAY SportsWould Steve Spurrier consider retiring if the Gamecocks capture the SEC title this season?
But what happens if this heyday ends in the next year or two, and the Gamecocks revert to a seven- or eight-win type of program? Do you think that’ll suit Spurrier, who nearly quit when that was going on the first time?
If the team does break through big, winning the SEC and/or reaching a BCS bowl for the first time, it would be Spurrier’s equivalent of the Michael Jordan jumper over Bryon Russell. (And keep in mind, this team might represent his best chance of doing just that, with Jadeveon Clowney on defense, stability and depth at the QB position and the other reasons I detailed in naming the Gamecocks a long-shot BCS title contender.) But that wasn’t MJ’s walk-off, and there’s no guarantee that hardware would result in Spurrier’s exile to a Florida beach home.
3. If the league’s first-year coaches can continue momentum into the season, then someone’s going to pull a big, landscape-changing upset.
The fresh energy in Knoxville and Lexington, and to a lesser extent Auburn and Fayetteville, has been noticeable all summer. Butch Jones and Mark Stoops -- and their staffs, of course -- have been outstanding in recruiting and the mojo seems to be extending into camp.
The new-look programs might not be title contenders or anywhere close in Year 1, but they all seem capable of pulling an upset that could derail others’ title hopes. And that’s probably all those programs are seeking at this point: knock off a big-name program, get back to a bowl and keep the optimism trending upward.
Candidates? Georgia and South Carolina had better have their radar up when they go to UT in October. Kentucky gets Florida and Alabama at home, and Louisville will have a big target planted on it by Stoops for that Sept. 14 meeting. You know he wants to shift some momentum in that state.
Auburn seems like the strongest roster, and the assembled coaching staff is SEC-savvy. Of all of the conference's dark-horse teams, it seems to me like the Tigers are capable of winning eight or nine games. I think Bama should warily enter the Iron Bowl; Auburn should be a team that gets a lot better over the course of the fall.
4. If Georgia wins the SEC title, then Aaron Murray will win the Heisman Trophy.
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John David Mercer/USA TODAY SportsAaron Murray could win the Heisman with another strong season and a few big wins.
The Bulldogs have had to hear for months about how close they were to playing for the national title last season. There’s motivation in that. And the offense does not figure to be a problem, considering that every player of relevance is back from a unit that ranked first nationally in yards per play last season.
That means Murray, who was among the nation’s most efficient QBs in 2012 without a superstar receiver, should put up fairly comparable numbers (3,893 yards, 36 TDs last year) this campaign.
What has been missing on Murray’s résumé, as glowing as it is, are big-game wins. He will get plenty of chances in September, with Clemson, South Carolina and LSU on the calendar. If Todd Gurley doesn’t go bonkers and get close to 2,000 yards and 20 TDs and split the UGA Heisman vote, Murray could be rewarded for his team’s success and at least get an invite to New York. And that wouldn’t be bad for the preseason’s third-team QB in the SEC.
As for Murray actually winning the Heisman? Crazier things have happened in the league. (See: Football, Johnny.)
5. If Missouri does not reach a bowl, then Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris could be the Tigers’ next coach.
Like others before him, with Gus Malzahn as a prime example, it’s a matter of time until Clemson’s offensive coordinator gets a head-coaching job. The proper fit, as often is the case, is paramount for those high-end coaching candidates.
Should the Missouri position open, it’s the sort of job that would make some sense for Morris. It’s an SEC job that leverages the state of Texas -- Morris’ home state -- for recruiting. Or at least it should mine Texas, if the Tigers are going to win.
Picture this: Morris goes to Mizzou, does fairly well and then, when the time comes, is a hot name for the Texas job. On that note, I don’t sense that Mack Brown is as close to retirement as we all seem to believe (job performance notwithstanding). Brown is 62 and he told me last week he’s feeling rejuvenated, ready for a run similar to the one the program had from 2004-10. So if that does wind up happening (to whatever extent), the timing could work out for Morris.
But one thing at a time, I suppose. Gary Pinkel is the current head coach of Mizzou, and if Tigers along with QB James Franklin and WR Dorial Green-Beckham have breakthrough seasons, Pinkel could lead the team to a bowl and be in fine shape at season's end. But as the season unfolds, this is another situation to keep an eye on.
Pivot Points for SEC | Big 12 | Pac-12 | Big Ten | ACC
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As preseason camps start to wind down and Week 1 prep begins, we’re introducing a new idea called "Pivot Points." Essentially, we're looking for the "swing" factors in each of the five major conferences as they pertain to this season's title races and future events. Here’s the formula: If "X" happens, then "Y" could occur as a result. It’s cause and effect. We begin with the SEC, examining the high-wire act that Texas A&M could become, what Steve Spurrier’s timeline should be (and what South Carolina's title chances are this season) and who could rise as a Heisman candidate.
1. If Alabama clobbers Texas A&M in Week 3, winning by 20-plus points, then keep an eye on the Aggies.
With all the Johnny Football headlines leading and extending into camp, some are suggesting that A&M could be this year’s version of the Arkansas disaster.
A collapse to that extent, which saw the Razorbacks go in the tank after offseason turmoil, an early surprise loss to Louisiana-Monroe and a subsequent beatdown against Alabama, doesn’t seem conceivable. Not with a bright guy like Kevin Sumlin as the Aggies head coach and not with the relatively light schedule they have beyond the Tide and a trip to LSU. A nonconference route of Rice, Sam Houston State, SMU and UTEP can help a team get well.
Maybe the start of the season will have a calming effect on the program, and that’s what they’re hoping in College Station. But we’ll have to continue to take the team’s temperature at various points of the season, to see if the fatigue of this offseason will have any sort of impact down the road.
“I could see this not ending well,” one coach said to me last month at ESPN's headquarters in Bristol, Conn.
I still doubt it gets really sideways even without Johnny Manziel, if it came to that as a result of the NCAA investigation into his autograph signings, but it’s certainly worth monitoring. If the Aggies are at their best, the SEC West is going to feature a compelling three-team division battle. If they fade from contention early (forgetting for a moment all the discussion that would generate around Manziel and the team), it will change the entire dynamic of the SEC title race.
2. If South Carolina wins the SEC title and goes to a BCS game, then Steve Spurrier could consider retirement.
Did I say "could" or "should"? Spurrier has said this summer, like every summer, that he has three or four years left in him. A big part of that is a message to recruits -- “Hey, still come to South Carolina!” -- and a part of that is, well, Spurrier is currently enjoying himself. Most coaches do when they’re winning 9-11 games a year, and South Carolina’s back-to-back 11-win seasons represent the most successful seasons in the school’s history.
[+] Enlarge
Jeremy Brevard/USA TODAY SportsWould Steve Spurrier consider retiring if the Gamecocks capture the SEC title this season?But what happens if this heyday ends in the next year or two, and the Gamecocks revert to a seven- or eight-win type of program? Do you think that’ll suit Spurrier, who nearly quit when that was going on the first time?
If the team does break through big, winning the SEC and/or reaching a BCS bowl for the first time, it would be Spurrier’s equivalent of the Michael Jordan jumper over Bryon Russell. (And keep in mind, this team might represent his best chance of doing just that, with Jadeveon Clowney on defense, stability and depth at the QB position and the other reasons I detailed in naming the Gamecocks a long-shot BCS title contender.) But that wasn’t MJ’s walk-off, and there’s no guarantee that hardware would result in Spurrier’s exile to a Florida beach home.
3. If the league’s first-year coaches can continue momentum into the season, then someone’s going to pull a big, landscape-changing upset.
The fresh energy in Knoxville and Lexington, and to a lesser extent Auburn and Fayetteville, has been noticeable all summer. Butch Jones and Mark Stoops -- and their staffs, of course -- have been outstanding in recruiting and the mojo seems to be extending into camp.
The new-look programs might not be title contenders or anywhere close in Year 1, but they all seem capable of pulling an upset that could derail others’ title hopes. And that’s probably all those programs are seeking at this point: knock off a big-name program, get back to a bowl and keep the optimism trending upward.
Candidates? Georgia and South Carolina had better have their radar up when they go to UT in October. Kentucky gets Florida and Alabama at home, and Louisville will have a big target planted on it by Stoops for that Sept. 14 meeting. You know he wants to shift some momentum in that state.
Auburn seems like the strongest roster, and the assembled coaching staff is SEC-savvy. Of all of the conference's dark-horse teams, it seems to me like the Tigers are capable of winning eight or nine games. I think Bama should warily enter the Iron Bowl; Auburn should be a team that gets a lot better over the course of the fall.
4. If Georgia wins the SEC title, then Aaron Murray will win the Heisman Trophy.
[+] Enlarge
John David Mercer/USA TODAY SportsAaron Murray could win the Heisman with another strong season and a few big wins. The Bulldogs have had to hear for months about how close they were to playing for the national title last season. There’s motivation in that. And the offense does not figure to be a problem, considering that every player of relevance is back from a unit that ranked first nationally in yards per play last season.
That means Murray, who was among the nation’s most efficient QBs in 2012 without a superstar receiver, should put up fairly comparable numbers (3,893 yards, 36 TDs last year) this campaign.
What has been missing on Murray’s résumé, as glowing as it is, are big-game wins. He will get plenty of chances in September, with Clemson, South Carolina and LSU on the calendar. If Todd Gurley doesn’t go bonkers and get close to 2,000 yards and 20 TDs and split the UGA Heisman vote, Murray could be rewarded for his team’s success and at least get an invite to New York. And that wouldn’t be bad for the preseason’s third-team QB in the SEC.
As for Murray actually winning the Heisman? Crazier things have happened in the league. (See: Football, Johnny.)
5. If Missouri does not reach a bowl, then Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris could be the Tigers’ next coach.
Like others before him, with Gus Malzahn as a prime example, it’s a matter of time until Clemson’s offensive coordinator gets a head-coaching job. The proper fit, as often is the case, is paramount for those high-end coaching candidates.
Should the Missouri position open, it’s the sort of job that would make some sense for Morris. It’s an SEC job that leverages the state of Texas -- Morris’ home state -- for recruiting. Or at least it should mine Texas, if the Tigers are going to win.
Picture this: Morris goes to Mizzou, does fairly well and then, when the time comes, is a hot name for the Texas job. On that note, I don’t sense that Mack Brown is as close to retirement as we all seem to believe (job performance notwithstanding). Brown is 62 and he told me last week he’s feeling rejuvenated, ready for a run similar to the one the program had from 2004-10. So if that does wind up happening (to whatever extent), the timing could work out for Morris.
But one thing at a time, I suppose. Gary Pinkel is the current head coach of Mizzou, and if Tigers along with QB James Franklin and WR Dorial Green-Beckham have breakthrough seasons, Pinkel could lead the team to a bowl and be in fine shape at season's end. But as the season unfolds, this is another situation to keep an eye on.
Travis Haney
ESPN Insider
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