I want to be worried about the LSU game, I really do.
I just can't.
Having watched both teams over the past few weeks leaves me with only one conclusion: barring some catastrophic set of circumstances involving injuries and/or illness among the Bama starters, there is no reason that we should lose to LSU.
Now, I'm not saying that LSU isn't a good team, can't give us a run for our money, and will be an easy win; I do, however, think that we're going to make it look easy.
We match up very well with LSU this year - especially considering how they've been playing the past few weeks. Yes, perhaps they have been looking forward to the Bama game for weeks and over-looking their opponents but they have a few issues that are fundamental and/or personnel problems that don't get fixed overnight.
Here are three defensive category rankings for LSU and Bama, only taking into account SEC Conference games:
| Defensive Category Rankings vs Conference Opponents | | | | | |
| LSU | | Alabama | | |
| Avg. / Game | Conference Rank | | Avg. / Game | Conference Rank |
| Rushing Defense (YPR) | 4.41 | 8th | | 3.77 | 2nd |
| Passing Eff. Defense | 131.9 | 5th | | 113.06 | 2nd |
| Scoring Defense (PPG) | 24.8 | 5th | | 11.8 | 1st |
Unlike recent years, there's a significant difference between the two. Of course, even this doesn't fully take into account the level of competition each team has faced, since both teams have only played five conference games. So, let's look at what each defense has done in conference play relative to what their SEC opponents have averaged in conference play.
| Defensive Category Differential Stats vs Conference Opponents | | | |
| LSU Defense | LSU Opponents' Offense | Differential |
| Rushing (YPR) | 4.41 | 4.38 | 0.03 |
| Passing Efficiency | 131.9 | 134.29 | -2.39 |
| Scoring (PPG) | 24.8 | 27.2 | -2.4 |
| Alabama Defense | Alabama Opponents' Offense | Differential |
| Rushing (YPR) | 3.77 | 4.38 | -0.61 |
| Passing Efficiency | 113.06 | 122.43 | -9.37 |
| Scoring (PPG) | 11.8 | 23.8 | -12 |
While LSU has faced slightly better offenses in regard to Yards per Rush and Passing Efficiency than has Alabama, the Crimson Tide Defense has fared significantly better than LSU's against their opponents - relative to what their opponents are averaging in conference play. Amazingly enough, both Alabama's and LSU's opponents have collectively averaged exactly 4.38 Yards per Rush on the season - that wasn't a typo or copy and paste error.
However, just like the other two stats, the Crimson Tide Defense has fared much better than LSU's - this time playing against virtually identical levels of offensive rushing prowess.
Ok, so what about the offenses?
| Offensive Category Rankings vs Conference Opponents | | | | | |
| LSU | | Alabama | | |
| Avg. / Game | Conference Rank | | Avg. / Game | Conference Rank |
| Rushing Offense (YPR) | 4.23 | 9th | | 6.89 | 1st |
| Passing Eff. Offense | 157.92 | 3rd | | 164.02 | 2nd |
| Scoring Offense (PPG) | 35.2 | 4th | | 43.8 | 2nd |
| Offensive Category Differential Stats vs Conference Opponents | | | |
| LSU Offense | LSU Opponents' Defense | Differential |
| Rushing (YPR) | 4.23 | 4.37 | -0.14 |
| Passing Efficiency | 157.92 | 132.19 | 25.73 |
| Scoring (PPG) | 35.2 | 29.5 | 5.7 |
| Alabama Offense | Alabama Opponents' Defense | Differential |
| Rushing (YPR) | 6.89 | 5.22 | 1.67 |
| Passing Efficiency | 164.02 | 152.02 | 12.00 |
| Scoring (PPG) | 43.8 | 36.0 | 7.8 |
As you can see, LSU has faced noticeably better defenses than has Alabama. However, the differentials tell an interesting story. First, you'll see that LSU wins its first - and only - differential comparison with Alabama in the way of Passing Efficiency Offense, as the Tigers have performed significantly better than the Tide in this differential. Second, you'll see that while both teams have significant scoring differentials, Alabama has fared a little bit better than LSU in that category. Finally, you'll notice that Alabama's Rushing (Yards per Rush) differential is excellent while LSU's is actually negative - putting LSU's Rushing Offense firmly in the bottom half of the SEC.
Of course, there are a few things to consider when looking at these offensive stats. First, in Alabama's closest conference tilt the Tide netted its highest Passing Efficiency Rating and its second highest Scoring Total (though netting its second "worst" Rushing performance at 6.32 yards per rush) in conference play - a win against Texas A&M. In addition, every other SEC game the Tide has played in has been a blowout win for Alabama. While blowout wins for many teams equals padded stats, for Alabama - as we all know - this usually means taking their foot off the pedal. Meanwhile, only one LSU conference tilt could potentially be considered a blowout - their 59-26 win over Mississippi State - although even that game yielded only a 31-26 lead for LSU going into the 4th Quarter. While this does mean that LSU has been tested more often in conference play than has Alabama, it is worth noting that Alabama won its only closely contested game while LSU lost two out of its three most closely contested games.
Add to all of this the facts that:
1) Alabama's Special Teams - for the first time in recent memory - is performing significantly better than LSU's,
2) Alabama's Time of Possession is better than LSU's,
3) Alabama's Turnover Margin is better than LSU's,
4) the 'Eye-Test' tells you that Alabama has been improving significantly as the season has progressed while telling you that LSU has seemingly been trending downward as the season has progressed, and
5) against their only common opponent - Ole Miss - the Tigers lost on the road while the Tide blew them out at home...
And the signs all point to a big Bama win over LSU.
