Re: Nussmeier to Michigan
When I first saw this thread, my first thought was that I wasn't surprised - like many, I wasn't particularly pleased with play-calling this year. When I considered the possibility of Kiffin being his replacement, I got wide-eyed, and not necessarily in a good way. So I decided to look into Kiff's overarching offensive philosophies and in the process found myself on a Notre Dame message board, where ND fans were discussing the recent Kiffin consult in Tuscaloosa.
Many were wondering why we even needed a consult, saying our offense has looked pretty "stout" over the previous 2 years. That isn't typically a description our offense gets from opposing fans (usually, it's "Bama's defense is incredible, but their offense is mediocre at best") and hasn't really been my impression, particularly with this year's 25 vs Ole Miss, 20 vs MSU and 28 vs Aub. So that made me wonder: how have Nuss's offenses actually performed vs recent Bama offenses? After a little bit of investigation and number crunching, this is what I've found:
The 2012 and 2013 offenses have had the two highest point totals per game of the most recent 5 seasons, including all three of our NCs since 2009. Since that contradicted my impressions, I figured that maybe we only had higher point totals solely because we had more possessions, perhaps due to the more recent popularity of HUNH and the acceleration of the game. So I decided to isolate only offensive points scored per offensive possession (did not include points scored by special teams or defense), which should yield more accurate estimations of offensive efficiency. Same result: the most efficient years of the previous five, in terms of offensive points scored per offensive possession, were 2012 and 2013.
The actual numbers:
Raw points/game
2013: 38.2
2012: 38.7
2011: 34.8
2010: 35.7
2009: 32.1
Offensive points/possession:
2013: 2.76
2012: 2.89
2011: 2.62
2010: 2.72
2009: 2.35
So no matter how you cut it, whether I liked the recent play-calling or not, Nuss's offenses put more points on the board for the good guys than we've seen in quite some time.
I have to think that if he was, so to speak, "not strongly encouraged to stay", it wasn't due to play-calling or overall offensive philosophy, but rather to the creep of increasing sloppiness which led to even more points being left on the field - red-zone fumbles, dropped passes, missed blocks, etc. Though those things are certainly a lack of player execution, they may also more broadly be indicative of a lack of OC ability to adequately lead positional assistants in maximizing player buy-in in "The Process".
That said, the two worst years defensively in the same two categories listed above (raw scoring allowed/game, and offensive scoring allowed/drive) happen to be the same two years we failed to compete in either the SECCG or the NCG: 2010 and 2013. So I have to think our biggest let-downs over the past five years have more to do with defense than with offense.
Raw points/game allowed
2013: 13.9
2012: 10.9
2011: 8.2
2010: 13.5
2009: 11.7
Offensive points/possession allowed:
2013: 1.01
2012: 0.80
2011: 0.51
2010: 1.06
2009: 0.76
As for Kiff? May be a great offensive mind - I don't know. But I'm not sure he would be an improvement in terms of character or motivating player buy-in in "The Process". But hey, I trust Coach Saban to make better personnel decisions from the front office than I could from my living room.
When I first saw this thread, my first thought was that I wasn't surprised - like many, I wasn't particularly pleased with play-calling this year. When I considered the possibility of Kiffin being his replacement, I got wide-eyed, and not necessarily in a good way. So I decided to look into Kiff's overarching offensive philosophies and in the process found myself on a Notre Dame message board, where ND fans were discussing the recent Kiffin consult in Tuscaloosa.
Many were wondering why we even needed a consult, saying our offense has looked pretty "stout" over the previous 2 years. That isn't typically a description our offense gets from opposing fans (usually, it's "Bama's defense is incredible, but their offense is mediocre at best") and hasn't really been my impression, particularly with this year's 25 vs Ole Miss, 20 vs MSU and 28 vs Aub. So that made me wonder: how have Nuss's offenses actually performed vs recent Bama offenses? After a little bit of investigation and number crunching, this is what I've found:
The 2012 and 2013 offenses have had the two highest point totals per game of the most recent 5 seasons, including all three of our NCs since 2009. Since that contradicted my impressions, I figured that maybe we only had higher point totals solely because we had more possessions, perhaps due to the more recent popularity of HUNH and the acceleration of the game. So I decided to isolate only offensive points scored per offensive possession (did not include points scored by special teams or defense), which should yield more accurate estimations of offensive efficiency. Same result: the most efficient years of the previous five, in terms of offensive points scored per offensive possession, were 2012 and 2013.
The actual numbers:
Raw points/game
2013: 38.2
2012: 38.7
2011: 34.8
2010: 35.7
2009: 32.1
Offensive points/possession:
2013: 2.76
2012: 2.89
2011: 2.62
2010: 2.72
2009: 2.35
So no matter how you cut it, whether I liked the recent play-calling or not, Nuss's offenses put more points on the board for the good guys than we've seen in quite some time.
I have to think that if he was, so to speak, "not strongly encouraged to stay", it wasn't due to play-calling or overall offensive philosophy, but rather to the creep of increasing sloppiness which led to even more points being left on the field - red-zone fumbles, dropped passes, missed blocks, etc. Though those things are certainly a lack of player execution, they may also more broadly be indicative of a lack of OC ability to adequately lead positional assistants in maximizing player buy-in in "The Process".
That said, the two worst years defensively in the same two categories listed above (raw scoring allowed/game, and offensive scoring allowed/drive) happen to be the same two years we failed to compete in either the SECCG or the NCG: 2010 and 2013. So I have to think our biggest let-downs over the past five years have more to do with defense than with offense.
Raw points/game allowed
2013: 13.9
2012: 10.9
2011: 8.2
2010: 13.5
2009: 11.7
Offensive points/possession allowed:
2013: 1.01
2012: 0.80
2011: 0.51
2010: 1.06
2009: 0.76
As for Kiff? May be a great offensive mind - I don't know. But I'm not sure he would be an improvement in terms of character or motivating player buy-in in "The Process". But hey, I trust Coach Saban to make better personnel decisions from the front office than I could from my living room.
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