It's official - Russia enters Crimea

Tidewater · Apr 21, 2015

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

crimsonaudio said:
Interesting perspective. Based on our historical meddling and screwing up foreign affairs, I've little confidence we can do anything and not screw it up in Ukraine...

It's a devil's brew, that's for sure.
There was another conservative commentator, a self-described "Realist" ("Realism" being a school of thought in international relations which argues that ideology does not really matter, that every country merely is trying to maximize their own power), who argued that Ukraine is part of Russia's sphere of influence. The Ukrainians were stupid to try to cozy up to the European Union and they pretty much deserve whatever they got. They should focus on getting the best capitulation they can and settle into the Russian orbit again.
Allison and Simes argue that even sending lethal weapons could well lead to Russians and Americans exchanging shots, which would be bad.
Me, I look at Ukraine as an example of what happens when you underinvest in defense. The Ukrainians "saved" a lot of money by not spending anything on defense for a couple of decades, and it has come back to bite them in the backside. When you live right next door to the Russian bear, it is probably best to keep your defenses up. It just comes with the territory.

Bamafaninco1 · Apr 21, 2015

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

As member nations of NATO, we are obligated to assist in the fight of Estonia and Lativa. I believe they are members.

crimsonaudio · Apr 21, 2015

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

Hard-liners see this as Putin’s best chance to snatch what they call “strategic victory” from the jaws of defeat. As they see it, Russia’s comparative advantage in relations with Europe and the United States is not economics. Instead, it is deploying military power. Europeans have essentially disarmed themselves and show little will to fight. Americans undoubtedly have the most powerful military on earth and are often prepared to fight. But even though they win all the battles, they seem incapable of winning a war, as in Vietnam or Iraq. In Ukraine, the “hotheads” hope, Russia can teach the Europeans and Americans some hard truths. The professionally executed operation that annexed Crimea virtually without a shot was the first step. But the deeper the United States can be sucked into Ukraine and the more visibly it is committed to achieving unachievable goals like the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the better from this hawkish Russian perspective. On the battlefield of war in Ukraine, Russia has what Cold War strategists named “escalation dominance”: the upper hand at every step up the escalation ladder. This is a proxy war the United States cannot win and Russia cannot lose—unless America is willing to go to war itself.

If Putin can indeed shift this from an economic struggle to a military one, they will have the upper hand.

crimsonaudio · Apr 21, 2015

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

Bamafaninco1 said:
As member nations of NATO, we are obligated to assist in the fight of Estonia and Lativa. I believe they are members.

Had to look it up but yep, they are both members (since 2004).

That's where this gets tough - are we willing to fight the Russians over those countries? Ugh...

mittman · Apr 21, 2015

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

Bamafaninco1 said:
As member nations of NATO, we are obligated to assist in the fight of Estonia and Lativa. I believe they are members.

I know. Lithuania too. That is what is so sobering.

On the other hand it is encouraging that Putin has repeatedly insisted Ukraine (or whatever is left of it) not become a NATO member as part of any negotiation. This indicates that they at least respect the possibility of the commitment being honored and realize a repeat of the Crimea among ethnic Russians there is very different.

Tide1986 · Apr 21, 2015

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

crimsonaudio said:
Had to look it up but yep, they are both members (since 2004).

That's where this gets tough - are we willing to fight the Russians over those countries? Ugh...

I suspect no traditional NATO members are willing to fight for Estonia and Latvia...which will spell the end of NATO...which is likely what Putin is trying to bring about.

crimsonaudio · Apr 21, 2015

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

Tide1986 said:
I suspect no traditional NATO members are willing to fight for Estonia and Latvia...which will spell the end of NATO...which is likely what Putin is trying to bring about.

That's a great point, I hadn't considered that.

Putin is a smart dude, we have to be careful. I'd rather we not be involved at all, but that's apparently not our style...

mittman · Apr 21, 2015

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

Tide1986 said:
I suspect no traditional NATO members are willing to fight for Estonia and Latvia...which will spell the end of NATO...which is likely what Putin is trying to bring about.

Which leads back to the excerpt I pulled. My friends in Estonia are worried that this is the case and are just as worried that it is not the case. Either way if Russia pulls what they did in Crimea among their ethnic Russians it turns out bad for them.

TIDE-HSV · Apr 21, 2015

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

crimsonaudio said:
That's a great point, I hadn't considered that.

Putin is a smart dude, we have to be careful. I'd rather we not be involved at all, but that's apparently not our style...

I had assumed all along that he intended to pick off or at least neutralize the Baltic states, all of which have sizeable Russian minorities which haven't really integrated at all. They swept in as a "liberating" wave during WWII and thereafter, Russians got preference in almost everything, so the populations sort of co-exist uncomfortably. Many returned to Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Some of this comes from a missionary to Estonia I met. He was a bright guy. My hat's off to anyone who can learn that language or Finnish, which have only distant relatives in Europe, like Magyar and Turkish...

Bamaro · Apr 21, 2015

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

Bamafaninco1 said:
As member nations of NATO, we are obligated to assist in the fight of Estonia and Lativa. I believe they are members.

And there is also the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances

mittman · Apr 21, 2015

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

Bamaro said:
And there is also the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances

This is why Putin has repeatedly tried to take the line that it is an internal Ukrainian dispute. I don't think he will be able to make that stick in a NATO country with what has crossed the border, but that doesn't mean he won't try.

Tidewater · Apr 21, 2015

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

All the unclassified chatter I have seen indicates a renewed Russian separatist offensive in Ukraine in the near future. Donetsk People's Republic and Lugansk People's Republic armed forces had been put on leave for the winter (& Minsk II ceasefire). These forces are being recalled from leave now. Recruiters are active in Russia drumming up new Russian recruits for the fighting in DPR & LPR.
Watch for the name Mariopol. It is the first objective city on the Russian path to attempting to establish ground connection with Crimea. Mariopol is less than 30 km from the Russian front lines. Russian front lines are 300 km from the isthmus connecting Crimea to the mainland, so Mariopol will be where it starts.

Bama4Ever831 · Apr 21, 2015

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

Putin has talked publicly about his willingness to use nuclear weapons to repel any effort to retake Crimea—noting that he relied on Russia’s nuclear arsenal during the Crimean operation. In these debates, many ask whether President Obama would risk losing Chicago, New York and Washington to protect Riga, Tallinn and Vilnius. It is a troubling question. If you want to either dumbfound or silence a table next to you in a restaurant in Washington or Boston, ask your fellow diners what they think. If stealthy Russian military forces were to take control of Estonia or Latvia, what should the United States do? Would they support sending Americans to fight for the survival of Estonia or Latvia?

Also keep in mind the other side of nuclear deterrence: If Russia starts launching nuclear weapons, how long do you think Moscow and St. Petersburg will last? So will Russia trade Riga, Tallinn and Vilnius for the destruction of Moscow/St. Petersburg? Assured mutual destruction has kept us safe so far...

crimsonaudio · Apr 21, 2015

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

Bama4Ever831 said:
Also keep in mind the other side of nuclear deterrence: If Russia starts launching nuclear weapons, how long do you think Moscow and St. Petersburg will last? So will Russia trade Riga, Tallinn and Vilnius for the destruction of Moscow/St. Petersburg? Assured mutual destruction has kept us safe so far...

I wonder how willing we are to retaliate, knowing full well it will simply accelerate the MAD?

I honestly don't know the answer to that, I'm not sure anyone does. If we get involved and kill some Russians and they pummel Chicago, what do you do when a country has shown a willingness to cross that line? Sure, you can puff out your chest and launch retaliatory strikes, but if they're already one step ahead of us wrt willingness to use these weapons, is that the smart move?

Not a rhetorical question, I simply don't know...

Tidewater · Apr 21, 2015

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

Bama4Ever831 said:
Also keep in mind the other side of nuclear deterrence: If Russia starts launching nuclear weapons, how long do you think Moscow and St. Petersburg will last? So will Russia trade Riga, Tallinn and Vilnius for the destruction of Moscow/St. Petersburg? Assured mutual destruction has kept us safe so far...

Well, the issue isn't whether the Americans will be willing to trade Chicago for Tallinn or the Russians are willing to trade St. Pete's for Riga.
The fear is that Russia will attempt aggression below the threshold of NATO Article V, by fostering unrest among ethnic Russians in Estonia, sending Russian troops into Estonia (while denying that they are Russian), fostering criminal activity in Estonia, bribing Estonian officials to not do their jobs or to actively support Russia's operations, and widespread propaganda to whip up Russians (within Estonia and within Russia) to defiance against the Estonian "fascists."
None of these would trigger a NATO Article V response. Indeed, some on the left in Europe would even delude themselves into denying that they are happening at all.
None of those activities rise to the level of an Article V response, meaning each targeted country would be on their own to respond. That is the fear.

Bama4Ever831 · Apr 21, 2015

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

Tidewater said:
Well, the issue isn't whether the Americans will be willing to trade Chicago for Tallinn or the Russians are willing to trade St. Pete's for Riga.
The fear is that Russia will attempt aggression below the threshold of NATO Article V, by fostering unrest among ethnic Russians in Estonia, sending Russian troops into Estonia (while denying that they are Russian), fostering criminal activity in Estonia, bribing Estonian officials to not do their jobs or to actively support Russia's operations, and widespread propaganda to whip up Russians (within Estonia and within Russia) to defiance against the Estonian "fascists."
None of these would trigger a NATO Article V response. Indeed, some on the left in Europe would even delude themselves into denying that they are happening at all.
None of those activities rise to the level of an Article V response, meaning each targeted country would be on their own to respond. That is the fear.

Didn't the US invoke Article V after 9/11? I would think based on precedent the Baltic states would be itching to invoke it even with unrest from separatists. Maybe it wouldn't trigger a declaration on Russia, but i would think a war against "separatists" could qualify similarly to terrorists. The Baltic States did already invoke Article IV for the Crimean crisis. Any escalation near one of their borders and I can't see a reason why at least one of the Baltic States wouldn't try to invoke Article V.

NATO's "War on Separatism"

The only problem I see with that is that it downplays Russian aggression.

mittman · Apr 21, 2015

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

crimsonaudio said:
I wonder how willing we are to retaliate, knowing full well it will simply accelerate the MAD?

I honestly don't know the answer to that, I'm not sure anyone does. If we get involved and kill some Russians and they pummel Chicago, what do you do when a country has shown a willingness to cross that line? Sure, you can puff out your chest and launch retaliatory strikes, but if they're already one step ahead of us wrt willingness to use these weapons, is that the smart move?

Not a rhetorical question, I simply don't know...

I don't think anyone does either, and I would be very skeptical of them if they stated they knew without a doubt. One never knows with certainty what response a specific action is going to produce. My take on the article Tidewater posted is that the writer is making that point.

One could spend the entire time before the point of ultimate decision swearing up and down they would do something then fail to have the will to do it once that point is reached. Our current administration has a history of doing just that. Killing millions of innocents would weigh pretty heavy even if one has millions of their own dead. At least it would for me.

That said, I can't see us not extracting a pound of flesh in some way.

TideEngineer08 · Apr 21, 2015

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

Even acknowledging my disdain for Barack Obama and his administration, if Russia were to nuke an American city, then I fully believe he would press the red button to destroy Moscow.

Tidewater · Apr 22, 2015

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

Not Ukraine, but next door. Alexandr Lukashenka, President of Byelarus, is running for re-election. He been called Europe's last dictator and used to be very close to Putin, but has distanced himself from Putin recently and is being courted by the West, a bit.
Anyway, Lukashenka has endorsed a law on unemployment: able-bodied men and women (except mothers of children under seven) who have not been employed for 183 days in the last year must pay a monthly fine equal to $253/year.
That's a policy I can support.

Tidewater · May 15, 2015

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

The report that Boris Nemtsov was preparing when he was murdered has been published.
The editors had a hard time finding someone to publish the book in Russia. Publishing houses feared reprisals. One publishing house finally agreed, as long as they could do so anonymously.
The book is called Путин. Война. ("Putin. War.")
I would not recommend trying to download the Russian version, due to virus/worm concerns.
Here, however, is an analysis written by a Russian dissident in Moscow:
Pavel Felgenhauer
It seems around 150 Russian soldiers were killed in fighting in Ukraine in August when the separatists were about to lose it all and Putin would not allow them to lose, and another 70 in fighting in and around Debaltsevo just after the Minsk cease fire was signed, as the separatists wanted to seize the town of Debaltsevo so they could connect two large Russian-held towns of Donetsk and Lugansk by road and railroad.

Putin’s press secretary and deputy chief of administration Dmitry Peskov announced, “I can only repeat again: any claims of Russian troops deployed on Ukrainian territory are baseless lies.”

The authors of the report found the graves of the Russian soldiers (carried back to Russia for burial) and spoke with families and surviving Russian soldiers themselves. This report is at least part of the reason Putin wanted Nemtsov killed.

It's official - Russia enters Crimea

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