They don't know him. The general public is always a bit ignorant, and Louisiana is far from an exception. If the GOP primaries turn bitter, Landrieu may rise from the dead. Otherwise, she's a goner.
Nate Silver Weighs In On The Pending Disaster
- Thread starter selmaborntidefan
- Start date
On September 30, 2012, (more than one day before the election) Silver predicted an 85% chance of an Obama victory and an electoral advantage of 320 to 218. The final count was actually 332 to 206.
In the last two presidential elections, Silver's final state by state prediction (including DC) has been 101 for 102. I'll grant you that not many people were predicting McCain to win in 2008. That was the biggest cluster of a campaign I can remember in my lifetime. But, Silver predicted Obama to win 349 votes in the electoral college (he actually won 365) and to win the popular vote by 6.1 percentage points (actual popular vote margin, 7.9 percentage points). What other prognosticator was even close to being that accurate in 2008? Other than a few wishful thinkers in the GOP, nobody expected McCain to win. But, nobody was nearly as accurate in their predictions as Silver, either.
The only way to be impressive predicting presidential elections is to accurately predict all 50 states almost TWO YEARS before the election? I don't even know how to respond to that.
You're impressed that a guy - based on composite polls - said a guy had an 85% chance of re-election when he was facing a moderate Republican posing as a conservative in a divided party while his own party was united and he had a much bigger bankroll and the advantage of incumbency during a time of peace?
You're ignoring a more fundamental reality when you cite both races: McCain actually led Obama in September, Romney did not. So how you can say nobody thought McCain would win in Sept but Romey would us beyond me.
I had Obama winning in May 2011 without taking a single poll. All one has to do is pay attention.
Again - what he does is NOT impressive at all. Lets see him get all 435 House races right today before nominating him as some genius. Do you really think there's any need to poll states like Utah, Mississippi, Alabama, California, Illinois, or about 35 other states? So the guy already starts with 80% of the EVs figured out.
Now - if Silver's "expertise" projected Auburn as 2013 SEC champ back in August THAT would be impressive.
The 85% prediction is probably only pretty good. I'm more impressed that a guy - more than a month before the election - was off on his electoral college prediction by only 12 votes. Regardless of the dynamics of the situation.
The first paragraph of my post was addressing predictions more than a day before the election. The 2008 prediction numbers for Silver that I gave were his final predictions. I looked for earlier numbers, but didn't find any. I never said anything about nobody thinking McCain would win in September. You're arguing against a point that I didn't make.
Honestly, this is beginning to sound like you're mad that people are calling Silver a genius, and not you.
Along the lines of my last point in the previous post, you're saying that, unless somebody is able to accurately predict all 435 House races, that they'er not VERY good at what they do? Seriously? That's a mighty high standard. That's like saying that if Coach Saban doesn't win every single game, every national championship and coach every Heisman Trophy winner for the next 10 years, he's just a run-of-the-mill coach.
A boatload of other prognosticators also started with 80% of the EVs figured out (or should have). None of them have been nearly as accurate as Nate Silver.
Karl actively sought to make sure his non-approved candidates lost once his candidates were defeated. The RNC chose to not help certain candidates during the election in hope that they would lose. The Senate Campaign group left them to twist when they could've helped. So don't give me this crap about its all one side's fault. Now the establishment wants everyone to rally around to support whatever republican is running. Funny how they didn't have that attitude in 2010 or 2012. You have to toe the line, get in line, and stay in line. Well screw that! It is so time for new blood and a new direction. They have done more to destroy the party than ANY tea party candidate EVER has.
I have not read the entire thread but didn't Silver predict that the Republicans would take the Senate in 2012 and predicted a split House of Representatives with a small Republican majority in 2010?
I agree 100%. I want to see what Nate can do over the next decade as we get more and more data. If he did nothing else, trolling Krugman was enough for me.
I predicated the holy grail, the house, senate, and presidency, for the GOP if Obama was reelected. They may write about the great prophet bpp one day.
You're better than me because I predicted that whoever followed Bush would be a one term President. Did not matter if it was Obama, Clinton, or McCain. Of course, I am holding out hope of predicting the correct powerball numbers!
This is the biggest bunch of FreeRepublic gibberish I've ever read.
There is no Republican establishment. There hasn't been in years. You're proving yourself to be clueless here, and for a guy who calls himself a conservative, I'd be curious if you've ever read a word of Bill Buckley.
I have indeed and I don't you to tell me what I believe. Couldn't care less what you call me. I can hear and see what the republican leadership did, does, and will do. It is precisely why I can't tolerate them anymore. And then to the consultants to the party who know precisely how to do two things, make gobs of money and then lose, I detest even more. But I appreciate your self-righteous, albeit pompous contribution.
I bet when the wife and kids are away you lock yourself in the bathroom with some Vidal/Buckley debates.
There's nothing more dangerous for America than Republicans to act like Democrats. Conservatives are sick of the Lindsey Graham's posing as conservative while campaigning yet acting like a liberal while serving. If Republicans want conservative support then they need to act more conservative or act conservative in any matter at all. What's the difference in a liberal with a D by his name or a liberal with a R by it? IMO, there is none.
Utter nonsense! Conservatives should only vote for candidates who are conservative in EVERY way and on EVERY issue. If the candidate fails even one litmus test, I fully support all conservative voters stating home on election day as a display of protest! :wink:
Liberal or Progressive which ever word you prefer. I personally call him progressive but liberal was the word that was being used so I stuck with it. Anyway, he isn't a conservative. Here are a list of things Graham has said that aren't conservative.Really, Lindsay Graham's a liberal?
http://www.freedomworks.org/content/top-10-absurd-quotes-lindsey-graham
BIB, what's absurb is to keep electing the same people and expecting something different. I don't really care where he was graded at by the ACU or anybody else, he constantly says things that shows where his heart is. He is for big government but his form of big government. Most of the people on this board say they want to make DC different and things have to change but nobody is willing to do what it takes to change it except the Tea Party. Democrats love to act like they want change in DC but they continually vote for the same idiots just because they have a D by their name. We are seeing what the country is like under Democrat rule and if that doesn't change their mind then nothing will, so by that standard I will not vote for a Republican who is nothing more than a Democrat lite. Graham and plenty like him need to go during the primaries.
Last, nobody is saying a candidate has to be perfect but he should atleast show some respect to conservative ideas and The Constitution.
Brett is right, though. The Tea Party is splitting the Republican Party. Thus, it is making the pathway to DC for the Democrats that much easier.
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