The Feds don't play around. That said, I'm not clear at to exactly who is being investigated. The Tallahassee PD? The state attorney? The state attorney's investigation? FSU itself? Winston individually? Some of these? All of them?
I see a financial settlement with the victim. Maybe a disciplinary letter to one or more policemen or FSU administrators. Worst case, somebody gets fired as a sacrificial lamb.
Absent new and really important revelations, I don't see anything happening to Winston personally, or any NCAA intervention with forfeitures / records / eligibility, or anything else affecting their 2013 season.