Pay-off if California Chrome wins Saturday?

TommyMac said:

With 3-5 odds for CC there won't be much of a pay-off for Joe Racefan if he wins, but I think it would be a windfall for the track.

Why?

Because I doubt that many folks would cash in their winning tickets, preferring instead to hold onto them as keepsakes of a historic event.

How about you, would you hold em or would you cash in?

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Buy two tickets and don't cash one of them. A two dollar win ticket will get about about 3 dollars and maybe some change on those kinda odds. If you are a true handicapper, you bet against him.

Is he carrying a football, is that why this is on the FB Board?

Just wondering

Tider n LA said:

Buy two tickets and don't cash one of them. A two dollar win ticket will get about about 3 dollars and maybe some change on those kinda odds. If you are a true handicapper, you bet against him.

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Good idea on buying two tickets and cashing one.

True that a true handicapper won't bet him straight up on a win ticket unless he bets really big but still not worth it. There will be a ton of trifecta bets with CC as the winner and wheel bets on the rest of the field finishing 2 and 3 and hoping long shots hit at 2 and 3.

I heard 5 of the last 6 winners have been 10-1 or higher odds. The 1 1/2 mile distance makes this race tough to predict since most of the horses have never run this far.

TiderJ said:

Good idea on buying two tickets and cashing one.

True that a true handicapper won't bet him straight up on a win ticket unless he bets really big but still not worth it. There will be a ton of trifecta bets with CC as the winner and wheel bets on the rest of the field finishing 2 and 3 and hoping long shots hit at 2 and 3.

I heard 5 of the last 6 winners have been 10-1 or higher odds. The 1 1/2 mile distance makes this race tough to predict since most of the horses have never run this far.

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That's the reason I think it will be tough on Chrome. That is a long homestretch at Belmont. If you move a horse too soon there (like Smarty Jones a few years back) it sets up for a closer late. The jockey has to walk a fine line between rating the horse and when to let them run. Many criticized Elliott (Jock on Smarty Jones) for letting him go to early. Elliott said that "Smarty wanted to run on and I felt I had to let him". Think the story will be if Espinoza can keep Chrome rated into the homestretch and save some in the tank to fend off a closer like Commanding Curve.

Don't get me wrong though. I'll be pulling for Chrome today.

Unfortunately Chrome came in 4th with Tonalist winning. His jockey said he just didn't have it today. It's a shame as I would have loved a Triple Crown winner. After the race his owner bitterly complained about horses just coming in for the Belmont, not having run in the Derby or Preakness. Duh! That's why the Triple Crown is so tough.

But, American Pharoah has managed to win the Triple Crown just one year later. It's amazing that it's been 37 years since the last winner (Affirmed in 1978).

Tide1986 said:

But, American Pharoah has managed to win the Triple Crown just one year later. It's amazing that it's been 37 years since the last winner (Affirmed in 1978).

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It's the first Triple Crown win of my lifetime. I honestly didn't think I would ever see one. Plus, Steve Coburn now looks like an even bigger fool!:biggrin:

It was a joyous and great day of racing. I have seen several but that was my first since being a teenager. It was fun to see my family and friends pull for a and celebrate like it was was a Bama victory.

American Pharoah is the fourth in my lifetime (yeah, I'm old). He is a special horse. I thought of the ones lately (California Chrome, Smarty Jones, Big Brown etc) this one had the most potential to pull it off. I still thought the odds were against him.

I think Pharoah is at least as good as Affirmed and maybe better than Seattle Slew. But not Secretariat or Citation "special". ( Never saw Citation run, but my father, born in 1907 was well schooled in horse racing and always said the best he had ever seen were Big Red and Citation).

Found myself standing into front of the TV screaming "turn him loose Victor" at the top of the stretch. What was most impressive is that Pharoah made it look easy by pulling away at the finish.

CB4 said:

American Pharoah is the fourth in my lifetime (yeah, I'm old). He is a special horse. I thought of the ones lately (California Chrome, Smarty Jones, Big Brown etc) this one had the most potential to pull it off. I still thought the odds were against him.

I think Pharoah is at least as good as Affirmed and maybe better than Seattle Slew. But not Secretariat or Citation "special". ( Never saw Citation run, but my father, born in 1907 was well schooled in horse racing and always said the best he had ever seen were Big Red and Citation).

Found myself standing into front of the TV screaming "turn him loose Victor" at the top of the stretch. What was most impressive is that Pharoah made it look easy by pulling away at the finish.

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Hard to say who is better because there is a 37 year difference in time. Seattle Slew actually beat Affirmed in the 1978 Marlboro Cup. Seattle Slew is the only horse to win the Triple Crown undefeated. We all know Secretariat was one of the best ever but it is hard to believe he lost 5 races.

CB4 said:

American Pharoah is the fourth in my lifetime (yeah, I'm old). He is a special horse. I thought of the ones lately (California Chrome, Smarty Jones, Big Brown etc) this one had the most potential to pull it off. I still thought the odds were against him.

I think Pharoah is at least as good as Affirmed and maybe better than Seattle Slew. But not Secretariat or Citation "special". ( Never saw Citation run, but my father, born in 1907 was well schooled in horse racing and always said the best he had ever seen were Big Red and Citation).

Found myself standing into front of the TV screaming "turn him loose Victor" at the top of the stretch. What was most impressive is that Pharoah made it look easy by pulling away at the finish.

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Fourth in my lifetime too, but I'M NOT OLD.

CB4 said:

Found myself standing into front of the TV screaming "turn him loose Victor" at the top of the stretch. What was most impressive is that Pharoah made it look easy by pulling away at the finish.

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Yeah, it was like "Home stretch? OK, let's crank it up a notch". AP has one of the smoothest gaits I've ever seen.

Those stables that bought the breeding rights will be able to breed about 100 foals per year and I imagine they will ask for about $100,000 per live foal considering AP's sire gets about $60,000 per foal right now or "did" before AP just won the Triple Crown.

They got $13.8 million (supposedly) for breeding rights and the owners kept a "certain percentage" to themselves so they'll continue to make money off him for a long time. I'm in the wrong business. What is funny is AP's lineage is not that impressive. Even the trainer said he had no idea why he was training him (early on that is). Crap they even tried to sell him early on and he couldn't even met the reserve......lol

Just goes to show a three star can be a big time winner.

I've seen this so many times - the horse doesn't have it in the tank to take the Belmont. That was my fear yesterday in the final 200 yards or so. I remember Smarty Jones basically not having enough when he looked like he had it in the bag and getting beat. I was against Smarty (for whatever reason - I usually pull FOR the horse if he's won two but not with Smarty or CA Chrome last year for whatever reason).

But that horse looked so cool almost like he was gliding.


I don't think we can necessarily draw much from "this horse was undefeated." How often does horse A run everything and compete against five or six other horses that are well rested? This was the fourth Triple Crown winner in my lifetime, but it's the first I knew about. I was in the UK in 1978 when Affirmed won it and didn't even know about it until years later. My first familiarity with it was when Pleasant Colony won the first two legs in 1981. The first time I saw all three races on TV in the same year was 1982 (Gato Del Sol won the Derby, Aloma's Ruler the Preakness, and Conquistador Cielo ran away with the Belmont - I was for Star Gallant in the Derby and Linkage in the other two).

But man that horse looked good yesterday!!


I still get chills watching Secretariat run away from that group at the Belmont and Turcotte looking back. I didn't see it at the time (or if I did I don't remember it since I was all of three - but we did watch a lot of sports) but it is still spine-tingling 40 years later.

selmaborntidefan said:

I still get chills watching Secretariat run away from that group at the Belmont and Turcotte looking back. I didn't see it at the time (or if I did I don't remember it since I was all of three - but we did watch a lot of sports) but it is still spine-tingling 40 years later.

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Secretariat was LITERALLY a freak. When they autopsied him, they discovered that his heart was something like twice the normal size.

230kv_barehand said:

Those stables that bought the breeding rights will be able to breed about 100 foals per year and I imagine they will ask for about $100,000 per live foal considering AP's sire gets about $60,000 per foal right now or "did" before AP just won the Triple Crown.

They got $13.8 million (supposedly) for breeding rights and the owners kept a "certain percentage" to themselves so they'll continue to make money off him for a long time. I'm in the wrong business. What is funny is AP's lineage is not that impressive. Even the trainer said he had no idea why he was training him (early on that is). Crap they even tried to sell him early on and he couldn't even met the reserve......lol

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Stay in the business you are in. The Thoroughbred racing game is one of the most riskiest businesses you can get into. Horses are bought for hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars and don't pan out more times than not. I have no idea what AP stud fee will be but he may be like Secretariat, a great racehorse but a mediocre stallion. I follow horse racing closely and it can be a real crap shoot.

jthomas666 said:

Secretariat was LITERALLY a freak. When they autopsied him, they discovered that his heart was something like twice the normal size.

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Yeah I recall that. When ESPN named him on their "50 Greatest Athletes" back around Y2K, they said the horse LITERALLY had "more heart" than anyone else. He was something else altogether.

Is this triple crown for American Pharoah as satisfying since he didn't do it in the same calendar year?