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Blowing Leads To Auburn: A Problem We Must Fix Long-Term

selmaborntidefan

selmaborntidefan

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Not trying to rouse the natives here, but our problem with maybe just not finishing in some of the Iron Bowls is a long-term one. Maybe it's because the game IS Auburn's season, but they don't exactly give up easily. Look at the following, it may surprise some of you:

1972 - led 16-3 in fourth quarter, lost
1982 - led 22-14 in fourth quarter, lost
1984 - led 17-7 in fourth quater, won (because Dye outsmarted himself)
1985 - led 16-7 in first quater, needed Van Tiffin miracle to win
1986 - led 17-7 in fourth quarter, lost
1993 - led 14-5 in third quarter, lost
1994 - led 21-0 at halftime, survived the final drive on a questionable call
1996 - led 17-0 in first quarter, needed last minute drive to win by one, 24-23
1997 - led 17-7 in third quarter, lost on dumbest play call in series history
2004 - led 6-0 at halftime, lost
2010 - led 24-0 in second quarter, lost
2013 - led 21-7 in third quarter, lost

Since 1972, the series record is 22-19 in our favor. Let's drop 2004 (although we should have led by about 20-0 at the half). Auburn has beaten us SEVEN times (out of those 19) since 1972 with comebacks, usually late. On four other occasions when they lost, they trailed big and dug out of the hole, and it was only because of our coming through in the clutch or their failure to do so that they didn't win then.

And on at least four of those occasions, they literally came back from the dead (1972-97-10-13).

We have to do something about this. Seriously.
 
CrimsonForce

CrimsonForce

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That's because when we get a lead we sit on it and go in a shell and try to run the clock out. Same thing that happens to us then is what Portugal did to us in the world cup the other day. Cant sit on a lead. Always have to stay aggressive. My only knock on CNS. Doesn't seem to keep his foot on the gas.
 
D

DrollTide

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I remember seeing a shocking statistic on Monday Night Football some years ago. Apparently there is only one coach, who happens to be Jeff Fisher, who has a (slightly) better than 50% chance of winning with a half-time lead. Everybody else was slightly less than 50%.

In other words, a half-time lead is mostly meaningless and in fact very slightly bad. Coaches must know this. It amazes me that you can't drill this number into players' heads.
 
TideMan09

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You make a great point as usual Selma, as you pointed out, the Bama game is the game The Barners lives for..While we live for NC's..They live for beating us & they literally have sold their souls to beating us..While we're on this subject..There's one aspect of Coach Saban's coaching that I have a problem with, is that he has the tendencies to call off the dogs to early in a game, and in a few games, it caused our players to lose that momentum they built up, and allowed the other team to make a comeback & make the game a lot closer than it needed to be..

I wish we would put games away & then let our 2nd string come in run the offense normally & allow those boys to get valuable PT..In case the players in front of them gets hurt & they will have game time experience to fill that void..
 
tusks_n_raider

tusks_n_raider

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I'm with you Selma and I have been beating the same drum since this past year's game. It's not just that they comeback and win/we blow it...it's that you can just tell by body language and intensity the AU wants it more and they play with more fire and effort. They will not die.

Ive also been saying we need a culture change in regards to the Barn. Yes we have the far better all-time tradition and yes they want to be what Bama is but our mindset of being cocky and arrogant and looking down on them hurts us in the rivalry. We have to start taking them as serious 'on the field' equals like we do LSU or we will never create series separation.

My honest feeling is that any year we play and we are say 11-0 and they are 9-2 or 8-3 going in the game they will give 110% and we will give 75-80% and they will beat us or make it uncomfortably close like 2009. To their credit they want to beat us more than we want to beat them and it infuriates me especially after the 2010 mantra of 'never again' and then it does happen again just 3 years later.
 
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Con

Con

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DrollTide said:
I remember seeing a shocking statistic on Monday Night Football some years ago. Apparently there is only one coach, who happens to be Jeff Fisher, who has a (slightly) better than 50% chance of winning with a half-time lead. Everybody else was slightly less than 50%.

In other words, a half-time lead is mostly meaningless and in fact very slightly bad. Coaches must know this. It amazes me that you can't drill this number into players' heads.
Click to expand...
I think what happens is dependent on whether or not the Head Coach is a defensive mind or an offensive mind. Defensive minded coaches seem to play to the strength of their defense. We do quite a bit, so we sit on the leads and go conservative. Coach Stallings was this way too. I was actually shocked when you said Coach Fisher is the only coach who is slightly better than 50% winning percentage with a half-time lead. Offensive coaches seem to keep pouring it on. I wish we would drop the hammer until we had a 21 pt. lead in the 4th quarter.
 
M

mrusso

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DrollTide said:
I remember seeing a shocking statistic on Monday Night Football some years ago. Apparently there is only one coach, who happens to be Jeff Fisher, who has a (slightly) better than 50% chance of winning with a half-time lead. Everybody else was slightly less than 50%.

In other words, a half-time lead is mostly meaningless and in fact very slightly bad. Coaches must know this. It amazes me that you can't drill this number into players' heads.
Click to expand...
When you're down at the half you go in, figure out what's wrong and make adjustments. If you have the lead what do you adjust. Not making excuses...just say'in. That's been my thought for years.
 
B

BigBama76

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You had to remind me of the 72 punt-bama-punt game. That was my first Iron Bowl while a student and I caught it from all my barn friends who had decided they were going to lose pre-game and wanted to follow me back to Tuscaloosa for our victory partying. They were waiting for me at the gate just as the last punt was blocked.
 
westide

westide

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I have never agreed with the philosophy of going vanilla on offense when you get a lead. Keep going with what got you the lead in the first place.
 
crimsonaudio

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BamainBoston said:
Given that time period spans eight coaches and several generations of players, I'm not sure it's anything other than statistical noise. They didn't come back in 2012.
Click to expand...
Thank you. Other than assuming there's some sort of systemic issue that's lasted for four decades, I can't imagine what needs to change.

There's little question that the game means more to the barners than it does to Bama, and passionate play can make a world of difference...
 
MOAN

MOAN

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Since my first recollection of the Iron Bowl, 1969, the largest margin of victory for Auburn against us is 10 points. Of course we have had many blowouts of them, with the most recent being 49-0 just 2 years ago. They know who their daddy is! ;)
 
C

CrimsonEyeshade

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This is what we get when we persist in hiring outsiders not attuned to the importance of the game.

selmaborntidefan said:
Not trying to rouse the natives here, but our problem with maybe just not finishing in some of the Iron Bowls is a long-term one. Maybe it's because the game IS Auburn's season, but they don't exactly give up easily. Look at the following, it may surprise some of you:

1972 - led 16-3 in fourth quarter, lost
1982 - led 22-14 in fourth quarter, lost
1984 - led 17-7 in fourth quater, won (because Dye outsmarted himself)
1985 - led 16-7 in first quater, needed Van Tiffin miracle to win
1986 - led 17-7 in fourth quarter, lost
1993 - led 14-5 in third quarter, lost
1994 - led 21-0 at halftime, survived the final drive on a questionable call
1996 - led 17-0 in first quarter, needed last minute drive to win by one, 24-23
1997 - led 17-7 in third quarter, lost on dumbest play call in series history
2004 - led 6-0 at halftime, lost
2010 - led 24-0 in second quarter, lost
2013 - led 21-7 in third quarter, lost

Since 1972, the series record is 22-19 in our favor. Let's drop 2004 (although we should have led by about 20-0 at the half). Auburn has beaten us SEVEN times (out of those 19) since 1972 with comebacks, usually late. On four other occasions when they lost, they trailed big and dug out of the hole, and it was only because of our coming through in the clutch or their failure to do so that they didn't win then.

And on at least four of those occasions, they literally came back from the dead (1972-97-10-13).

We have to do something about this. Seriously.
Click to expand...
 
J

JDCrimson

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TideMan09 said:
You make a great point as usual Selma, as you pointed out, the Bama game is the game The Barners lives for..While we live for NC's..They live for beating us & they literally have sold their souls to beating us..While we're on this subject..There's one aspect of Coach Saban's coaching that I have a problem with, is that he has the tendencies to call off the dogs to early in a game, and in a few games, it caused our players to lose that momentum they built up, and allowed the other team to make a comeback & make the game a lot closer than it needed to be..

I wish we would put games away & then let our 2nd string come in run the offense normally & allow those boys to get valuable PT..In case the players in front of them gets hurt & they will have game time experience to fill that void..
Click to expand...
This tendency has not always been exhibited by CNS. He certainly did not have this tendency while at LSU because I distinctly remember him getting publicly taken to task for running up the score. He always gave a terse response that it was the other team's job to stop us. He has developed this tendency since coming to Bama, imo and certainly seems to exhibit more in November than any other point in the season. I understand there is no real value in absolutely destroying the other team. Namely because a lot of the kids on the other team these coaches recruited them and know their parents. We dont see it a lot from our perspective but I do think coaches by and large still value sportsmanship similar to my HS coaches.

Even so, a 21 point lead in the 2nd half is not a lead anymore - its a target for the opposing team. To me even if you have a substantial lead, the objective should always be to score (or improve field position) on each possession regardless whether you have 1st team, 2nd team, or scrubs in the game. We seem to have gotten away from that somehow the last few years.
 
sabanball

sabanball

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The actions/play calling of BAMA's opponent should determine whether CNS calls off the dogs or not.

If the opponent is still trying to score and ultimately win the game, then BAMA should be doing the same.
 
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