This article piqued my interest, so I did a little digging. In a looking at in-state recruiting since Saban arrived (I excluded the 2007 class, since it was "inherited"), here's a few interesting nuggets I've found. I used Rivals as my source for ratings.
- From 2008-2014, the state of Alabama has produced 16 5* rated prospects; Bama has signed 13 (~81%) and Auburn has signed 2 (both of which were in 2014).
- Same time frame, Alabama has produced 69 4* prospects; Bama has signed 34 (~49%) and Auburn has signed 20.
- Bama typically signs ~23% of the top Rivals rated prospects in a given year (it should be noted that Rivals fluctuates between a top 25 and top 40, but most years its a top 40). 2008 was the only aberration, with Bama signing almost half of all the top 40 Rivals rated prospects. This could be due to Saban working extra hard in-state to establish his pipeline and repair any damaged relationships from prior staffs.
- Alabama produces ~12 4* & 5* prospects each year (high of 16 in 2008, low of 8 in 2011).
It appears that the level of talent in-state hasn't drastically decreased from the start of Saban's tenure to now. And Saban's ability to take all the top in-state talent hasn't diminished over the years. While I agree that Saban has established a national recruiting machine, its clear that all the top in-state talent isn't leaving the state.
I tend to agree with the sentiment of "If the best player for your system is in New York, you go to New York and get him." But I think this is a case of perception is different than reality. Are we signing more out of state guys? Yes. But we are also taking dang near all of the top in-state talent as well. The national stuff gets more heavily reported. It's a big story when 5* recruit Cyrus Kouandjio decides to leave Maryland to attend school in Alabama. It's not as big a story when 5* prospect Bo Scarborough from Northport decides to attend the University in his home town.
Been a concern for years. Mainly because I assume what we don't harvest the barn will. It's hard not to believe that our national windfall in recruiting isn't keeping the barn flowing in dangerous talent. Never good to have a bunch of angry Alabama players showing up with chips on their shoulders the size of Mobile Bay. It's just impossible to complain with so much talent coming in from wherever.
I agree that this is a risk. But in general, Bama signs more top in-state talent year in and year out than Auburn. Based on the Rivals research I did, the only year Auburn signed more top 40 rated prospects than Alabama, was 2011. And as Cecil notes in his article, that was an atypically thin year. In general, Bama whips Auburn every year when it comes to in-state recruiting.
All of this is to say Cecil Hurt needs to learn to do research. Alabama hardly "leans on out-of-state football players". We take all the best talent in-state, then we go take the best from other states.